For the span of his political life, Donald Trump has said on numerous occasions that he would never announce a pending military move to his enemies. Rather, he said, it was important to maintain an element of surprise.

But those most surprised by his recent decision to withdraw all American troops from Syria were not his enemies but his allies. The withdrawal of American power from the region will result in a realignment of strategic realities. First and foremost, it likely means that Iran will remain in Syria, though what form that takes remains to be seen. It also means that the Kurds, history’s losers, will again be betrayed by a stronger patron. The big winners? The Russians, who will now play the role of ultimate power brokers in the region, once the province of the Americans.

What Trump Gains

Simply put, America saves a lot of money. For President Trump, it’s a fulfillment of an election promise to put “America First.” Trump is no advocate of military intervention, and seeing the volatility in Syria and Lebanon, he opted to bring his troops home rather than sink deeper into the Syrian quagmire.

What Israel Loses

A lot. Israel has been left to deal with Iran and Russia on its northern border. Though ties with Russia have improved significantly since Syria accidentally downed a Russian plane during an Israeli attack, the Russians have shown that they intend to enforce their red lines. At last week’s UN Security Council meeting on the Hezbollah tunnels, for example, the Russian ambassador called on “both sides” to refrain from provocation. With America out of the picture, there won’t be an adult in the room anymore to stymie Iranian aspirations for influence in Syria. The US force may have been small, but it sent a message loud and clear that America is around and has a say in what goes on. No longer.

What the Kurds Lose

American support and defense from Turkey and Islamic State. The new situation could be catastrophic for a nation that has fought valiantly against IS and suffered greatly in the last decades.

What Iran and Russia Gain

It’s hard to say exactly, but what’s certain is that there is no counterweight to their ambitions in Syria – and that’s bad news for Israel. The American presence wasn’t only along the Turkish border but also along the Jordanian and Iraqi frontiers. Syria is now like a runaway car speeding downhill; America is no longer there to step on the brakes.

Why Doesn’t Netanyahu Protest More Loudly?

After Trump was elected, there were coalition members in Netanyahu’s government who began fantasizing about applying sovereignty in the West Bank and other similar steps. Netanyahu begged them not to get carried away, explaining that Trump is unpredictable. In short, Netanyahu understands that his warm relations with Trump are a major strategic asset that he doesn’t want to risk.

What Precipitated the Move?

Two months ago, national security advisor John Bolton said the US would remain in the region as long as Iran was in Syria. That statement proves that this was, first and foremost, Trump’s decision, made in opposition to Bolton and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis. We can only wonder why Trump decided to act against the recommendations of his senior advisors.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 741)