After victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Bernie’s decisive win in Nevada has cemented his status as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination

Next Tuesday, hours after the polls close in Israel, polling stations will open in the 14 Super Tuesday states. The outcome of Israel’s elections will coincide with the beginning of America’s most consequential primaries. Given the expected stalemate in Israel, the big primary day may be more significant — for both Israel and America — than Israel’s general election.

Bernie Sanders is storming to victory. Anyone who still thinks he’s a shooting star that will fade in time should wake up. After victories in Iowa and New Hampshire, Bernie’s decisive win in Nevada has cemented his status as the front-runner for the Democratic nomination. Nevada is particularly significant given its diverse population, compared with overwhelmingly white Iowa and New Hampshire. And it was there that Bernie scored his biggest victory, proving that he appeals to black and Hispanic voters as well. He won the same percentage of the vote he did in 2016, except that this time he faced five strong candidates instead of one.

The South Carolina primary will be held at the end of the week. Just a month ago, Joe Biden was leading the state by double digits; now he’s statistically tied with Sanders. It’s hard to underestimate how significant this is. Biden’s African American support was supposed to give him crushing victories across the Deep South. If Sanders can finish neck and neck with Biden in South Carolina, Biden is in even bigger trouble than we thought.

After Super Tuesday, weaker candidates will have to drop out. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar exceeded expectations with strong showings in Iowa and New Hampshire. But without convincing wins in several states on Super Tuesday, they’ll have trouble explaining to donors why they’re still in the race. The same applies to Elizabeth Warren.

Unlike Klobuchar and Buttigieg, Warren still has donors and a determined base, but she will struggle to remain competitive through March in states like Ohio, Florida, Michigan, and Illinois. To compete in these delegate-rich states against candidates with war chests like Sanders and Mike Bloomberg, she’ll need tremendous resources.

With Biden and Warren fighting tooth and nail for survival, and Klobuchar’s and Buttigieg’s chances of coming from behind slim, in walks Bloomberg, moderate Democrats’ last chance of denying Sanders the nomination.

At the moment, the mission he’s set for himself — getting Biden, Buttigieg, and Klobuchar to drop out and endorse him, and then overcoming the energized progressive wing of the party — seems impossible. Super Tuesday will be the moment of truth. That’s when we’ll find out whether Sanders has any real opposition, or if Bloomberg’s hundreds of millions went down the drain.

The Jewish billionaire has spent an unthinkable $452 million in advertising so far, according to NPR. Take a minute to let the number sink in: just for advertising. That’s more than all his opponents put together. I can’t turn on the radio in my car in Washington, D.C., without hearing a Mike Bloomberg ad — and the primary in D.C. isn’t until June. For comparison’s sake, Barack Obama spent $338 million in advertising during his entire reelection campaign. We’re still in February.

Bloomberg stepped into the lion’s den of the Nevada Democratic debate looking arrogant and unprepared. He clearly had no respect for the other candidates, expecting them to step aside. Instead they tore him apart, especially Elizabeth Warren, who managed to rattle him repeatedly. His tactic was simple: to out-Trump Trump. Richer, more abrasive, surer of himself, more unapologetic.

When others accused him of buying the nomination, he replied: “I don’t think that’s a bad use of my money.”

When the issue of nondisclosure agreements with former employees was raised, he said: “Maybe they didn’t like a joke I told.”

Why won’t he release his tax returns? “It’s thousands of pages, I can’t use TurboTax.”

His performance was pronounced a disaster by the press. His approval rating among Democrats going into the debate was 61%. After the debate, it plummeted to 52%. Before the debate, 25% of Democrats viewed him unfavorably according to a Morning Consult poll. After the debate, the number rose to 35%.

But the former New York mayor doesn’t have much time to lick his wounds. Next week is the biggest moment of his political life. The election site FiveThirtyEight still gives him a good chance of finishing second on Super Tuesday and a 9% chance of becoming the party’s nominee.

In California, with the biggest delegate haul of Super Tuesday, Bloomberg is still running second. In North Carolina and Virginia, he’s neck and neck with Sanders. In Texas, he’s third after Biden and Sanders.

Any way you look at it, Super Tuesday could render all of Sanders’s opponents unviable. Some may stay in the race, but it’s unclear whether it will be worth it: Sanders is expected to carry states like Colorado and Tennessee, and he’s giving Klobuchar a run for her money in her home state of Minnesota.

We already know that Bloomberg has all but limitless advertising resources, and we know he isn’t afraid of putting them to use. The unknown factor in the equation is time. Will he be able to downplay his debate performance and reignite his momentum? In any case, we’ll know who the Democratic nominee is well before we know the identity of the next prime minister of Israel.

Déjà Vu all Over Again

It’s elections season in Israel, and here I am again covering early voting at the Israeli embassy in Washington. The queue was the same, the people were the same, and the enthusiasm level was the same, despite this being the third election in 12 months.

True, I spoke to public servants, who normally vote in high numbers anyway. But others came from far and wide to cast their ballots, driving several hours to the embassy.

At the polling station, there are no posters, jingles, or flyers. You just walk in, hand your ID to the election observers, write the name of your preferred party on a paper, and insert it in the ballot box. Only official representatives of the state are allowed to vote, so your humble servant couldn’t cast his ballot.

Dani Khati, an employee of the Defense Ministry stationed in Washington, came to vote for the third time this year. “Motivation diminishes with time,” he told me. “In the first and second rounds, I voted for the same party unhesitatingly. In the end, I decided to vote for the same party again, but only after a good deal of thought. Ever since the first round, I can’t get rid of the feeling that no government will be formed, and we’ll be back to square one again. I hope things will change this time.”

Hadar Steinberg, an employee at the embassy, was also feeling a little uneasy about this election. “I hope something changes this time,” she said. “I decided to vote for the same party. I believe in the end it’s better to go out and vote than to stay at home. In fact, I don’t know anyone who intends to abstain from voting. We know that every vote counts.”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 800)