What Happened?

A group of seven Republican members of Congress — including Lee Zeldin, Brian Mast, and Liz Cheney — have begun circulating a petition that would force a House floor vote on an anti-BDS bill, as well as three other bills concerning the Middle East and Israel.

Why It Matters

Although it sounds like a mere technical matter, it was in fact a clever maneuver by Republicans that has already caused the Democrats considerable embarrassment. Let’s start at the beginning: Anti-BDS bills have been introduced several times in the past few years. A considerable number of Democratic representatives have voted for such legislation in the past, and some have been cosponsors.

But there is no consensus in the party as to the necessity of such legislation. On the progressive wing of the party, there are those who claim that the right to boycott falls into the same category as freedom of speech, and is therefore enshrined in the First Amendment to the Constitution.

Whether by coincidence or not, the bill under discussion, which passed in the Senate with 70 votes, has been languishing on the floor of the Democratic-controlled House for several months now. For this reason, a group of Republicans turned to a parliamentary maneuver to settle the issue. For such a petition to be binding, it needs to be signed by 218 representatives, a majority of the 435-member House. The Republicans claim that there are 30 Democrats in the House who voted for such legislation in the past, and they expect them to sign the petition. If every Republicans puts his signature to the petition, they will only need 21 additional signatures for a majority.

The Upshot

The Republicans have so far succeeded in transforming a languishing proposal into a political hot potato for the Democrats. If enough Democrats join the petition, the Republicans will have won a symbolic victory. If they fail to support the petition, the Republicans will be able to claim (once again) that the Democrats’ declarations of support for Israel are insincere.

Unquestionably this presents a serious dilemma for the Democratic leadership in the House. They don’t want to lose Jewish voters to the GOP in 2020, but on the other hand it is not clear how the measure will be received by the progressive wing of the party, which has shown no fondness for Israel. Rep. Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader, tried to compromise by promising to advance the legislation, but not committing to a floor vote on the bill.

The Republicans have zero interest in this approach and will continue to push the petition. We can expect to hear more in the coming weeks.

Game of Chicken

What Happened?

An escalation in the trade war: The United States is expected to ban the establishment of Chinese-built 5G networks in its territory, fearing espionage.

Why It Matters

In game theory, a “game of chicken” describes a situation in which two people are driving cars toward each other at full speed. The question is: Who will swerve first? The talks between the United States and China have come to a dead end. Neither side wants to capitulate, and therefore each stands firm behind its demands. The result is that both countries are beginning to suffer as a result of the increasing tariffs.

The Background

The United States has a massive trade deficit with China, amounting to hundreds of billions of dollars a year. The two sides began negotiations about a year ago in an attempt to reach a trade deal that would compel China to purchase more merchandise from America, thus closing the trade deficit. The US slapped tariffs on many Chinese products in order to raise the stakes. China reacted by slapping tariffs on the American agricultural sector, a shrewd move considering that sector is considered one of Trump’s primary bases of support. Since then, the economies of both countries have been suffering — but the Chinese have suffered more.

Last week, there were two important developments. First, the Chinese signaled that they may not want to continue the talks in light of the tariff increases on Chinese products. The two sides appear now to be approaching an escalation that could ultimately have negative repercussions for the American economy as well.

What It’s Really About

More importantly, Trump has signed an executive order that will allow him to bar Chinese companies from building 5G networks in America. The 5G networks are the future of the Internet. Every electronic device will connect to 5G, including autonomous cars and advanced medical equipment. This is no longer a question of just cell phones.

The ubiquity of the market is one reason the United States sees it as threatening. Washington worries that Chinese-manufactured networks in the UK or Germany or elsewhere will enable Beijing to spy on US military assets or companies with ease. Sen. Lindsey Graham warned last week that any country granting China licenses to establish 5G networks in its territory will risk endangering its relations with America.

In this game of chicken, it looks like the US and China are headed for a full-on crash. At the moment, neither appears likely to swerve off course.

NAFTA Reconsidered

What Happened?

The US canceled last year’s tariffs on Canada and Mexico. The new trade deal between the three countries is expected to win the support of both houses of Congress.

Why It Matters

One of Trump’s central campaign promises was to get rid of NAFTA, the trade agreement between the US, Canada, and Mexico. The countries had already reached an agreement on basic principles, but it was only this past Friday that a path was opened for the quick approval of a new deal in Congress.

It happened after the US agreed to suspend the tariffs it had placed on Canadian and Mexican steel and aluminum products, in exchange for agreement on the part of the two countries not to allow subsidized Chinese steel to be shipped from their countries into America.

This is good news for American farmers as well. Mexico, in retaliation for Trump’s tariffs last year, announced its own tariffs on American agricultural produce at a value of $3 billion, while Canada also placed a 10% tariff on merchandise at a value of $12 billion annually. Now these restrictions will be dropped. This is a real achievement for Trump, who is interested in improving the agricultural sector ahead of an election year, especially since the talks with China have stalled.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 761)