Whatever happens in the 2024 elections, the 2020 campaign will be about the wall along the Mexican border — and it’s already well underway.

With the government shutdown now in its 16th day at press time, the garbage is piling up in the parks, national parks are closed, the IRS isn’t issuing tax returns, and in at least four airports, hundreds of workers are calling in sick because they’re quite simply tired of working for free. Meanwhile, on both sides of the aisle, lawmakers are digging in their heels — and it’s the American people who’ve been taken hostage. With neither side willing to cave in, hundreds of thousands of people are waking up each morning and going to work without receiving remuneration — and there’s no end in sight. Welcome to a preview of the next two years of split government and factional fighting in Washington.

Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts has already kicked off her 2020 presidential campaign. In an informal survey, Democratic voters in Washington, D.C., were chilly in their responses, bringing up her embarrassing claim to Native American ancestry, which many believe killed any chance she might have had. But Warren isn’t giving up so easily, and has already traveled to Iowa, where the first Democratic primaries will be held in exactly 12 months.

Warren is expected to come up against a throng of political rivals that includes senators Camilla Harris, Corey Booker, and Kirsten Gillibrand.

But in the final analysis, the name that keeps coming up is Joe Biden. He’s already 76, which means that if elected, he’d be the oldest president by far. But some Democrats in the current atmosphere harbor a desire for safety and stability. They want a name they know, someone with an impressive track record who can act as a counterweight to incumbent Trump. I’ve heard as much from New York governor Andrew Cuomo as well as California senator Dianne Feinstein. At the moment, even before announcing his candidacy, Biden has a major base of support in the party.

The question is if he can capture the imagination of young liberals, the sector that can barely be bothered to go out and vote. Will they leave the house for someone like Biden? It’s hard to know, but an AP report from December notes that Biden aides are thinking of recruiting rising star Beto O’Rourke for VP, in a bid to combine experience with a fresh face, responsibility with enthusiasm.

Of course, O’Rourke is probably looking at those polls that show him running ahead of Biden — why should he settle for the number two slot? And with so many others expected to throw their hats into the crowded ring in the coming four months, Biden’s age looks like more and more of a liability.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 743)