That’s because Trump administration officials will likely release the plan in the coming days, hoping to make the details of the plan well known before the next Israeli elections.

Pundits in Israel say Netanyahu would prefer for the plan to be released after the elections, a timetable that would give him the ability to build a coalition with either a right-wing or centrist government. If the initiative is made public before elections, by contrast, it could harm Netanyahu’s chances, primarily because the plan will likely include recognition of a Palestinian state. Naftali Bennett of Bayit Yehudi could build an opposition campaign out of that fact alone.

Whatever the timetable, and try as he might, President Trump won’t be able to force a peace plan on skeptical parties. Palestinian chairman Mahmoud Abbas seems unlikely to sign a peace deal in his lifetime. Advanced in age and suffering from various health issues, Abbas won’t risk his legacy, especially for Trump, whom he is already boycotting over the US decision to move its embassy to Jerusalem.

Where does that leave Israel? It’s complicated. On one hand, the peace plan crafted by Trump aides Jason Greenblatt and Jared Kushner will likely contain the best terms ever presented to Israel. That’s no surprise given that the Palestinians have boycotted the process, and the Trump team has been meeting by and large with Israeli officials. So, in that respect, we’re talking about an achievement for Netanyahu, who will be happy to adopt the plan and prove his influence with the administration.

On the other hand, if the plan does indeed include the words “Palestinian state,” it could be a political boomerang for Netanyahu. The Bayit Yehudi party has already stated it won’t agree to recognition of a Palestinian state, and, if the party stays in the coalition, that position could place the prime minister in direct conflict with Washington.

Nevertheless, Netanyahu is an experienced negotiator, and we can expect that he’ll adopt the plan “with certain limitations,” especially as it regards a Palestinian state. Alternatively, he might support the plan wholeheartedly, with the clear knowledge that the Palestinians won’t ever sign. In this way, Israel will not be labeled as the obstacle to peace. Either way, it looks like this peace initiative will end up like its predecessors — in the trash heap. (Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 718)