What looked a month ago like a pothole in the Trump-Erdogan relationship has morphed into a serious and growing crater, one that threatens to upend strategic relationships in the Middle East and further destabilize the regional economy.

At issue is Turkey’s continued confinement of American pastor Andrew Brunson, who was arrested in 2016 for his alleged role in Turkey’s failed coup. Late last week, a Turkish appeals court rejected Brunson’s request for freedom, a ruling that will set into motion another round of US sanctions.

As reported here recently, Turkey and the United States had agreed to a swap of prisoners in July, whereby US ally Israel would release a Turkish Hamas activist and Turkey would release Brunson. Israel and the United States kept their part of the deal, but the Turks didn’t keep theirs. Responding immediately, President Trump said he would impose “large sanctions” on Turkey and insisted that an “innocent man of faith” should be released immediately.

The Turks see things differently. Ankara is demanding that Washington hand over clergyman Fethullah Gulen, who lives in Pennsylvania, and whom Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan claims was behind the failed 2016 coup attempt. Washington has refused those requests, however, claiming the Turks’ evidence against Gulen is thin. If the United States is unwilling to release Gulen to Turkish custody, Erdogan has responded, then why should Turkey release Brunson? As Erdogan said, “We have handed over to you every terrorist that you asked for.”

But that’s not the only dispute between Turkey and the United States — in fact, there are several. Erdogan is also displeased that the United States is supporting Kurdish separatists — the Turks’ longtime enemies — in their battle against ISIS in Syria. America, on the other hand, is very concerned about Turkey’s decision to purchase advanced weapons, including the S-400 anti-aircraft system, from Russia. After all, Turkey is a NATO member, and the primary goal of that group is to serve as a counterbalance to Russia.

For now, a huge sale of American-made F-35 fighters is on hold and Erdogan has threatened that Turkey will “find ourselves new friends.” To wit, he is continuing his trade with Iran, even after US sanctions have gone into effect.

When Erdogan and Trump, two domineering personalities, perceive everything as a personal battle, the results are liable to be destructive. For now, Turkey’s economy has suffered the most, due mainly to Erdogan’s lack of economic acumen. In the past year, up until the July fight with Trump, the lira has fallen 40%, and inflation stands at 16%. In response to US tariffs on Turkish steel and other metals imposed earlier this year, the Turks have imposed tariffs on American-made automobiles, alcohol, and tobacco. The trade dispute has rattled global markets, where Turkey, the 17th largest economy in the world, had been seen an emerging markets leader.

Ever the crafty politician, Erdogan has used the crisis in relations with Trump to divert attention off the shaky Turkish economy. Still, Trump’s fury notwithstanding, the West won’t so easily allow Turkey to embrace Putin. The days ahead will show whether the two leaders’ mutual interest to repair the spat will win over their egos and hot tempers.

Talking Turkey Trade

66%

The dollar’s gain versus the Turkish lira over the last 12 months

68,000

Number of US jobs supported by exports of goods and services to Turkey

$12.5 billion

Total US goods and services exported to Turkey in 2016

29

Turkey’s position in the rankings of America’s export markets in 2016. For Turkey, the US is the 33rd largest market.

Sources: US Department of Commerce; Office of the US Trade Representative

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 724)