Border, economy, primaries — America's 2020 watch list

The coming year holds many momentous decisions.

Donald Trump will ask the American people for their trust a second time. Congress, meanwhile, will grapple with his impeachment, in the midst of debating important legislation. It will be a dramatic year as well for the stock markets and international relations — especially regarding Israel, which still has no government.

What can we expect? Here are some main highlights.

The Democrats’ Search for Identity

On July 13 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the Democratic National Convention will assemble to choose the party’s nominee for president. Democrats will have to decide on an identity.

Is theirs a centrist party that will rally around a mainstream figure like Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, or Amy Klobuchar? Or is it a socialist party that will prioritize the environment over economic concerns, even at the risk of driving away middle-class voters from crucial swing states? Is the party aiming to draw voters from the right, or is it unmitigatedly left-wing?

The first indication of where the party is headed will come when the early primary states cast their ballots in just a few months.

Trump’s Quest for a Big Deal

The president is desperate for a signature achievement in foreign policy. It obviously won’t come on the Israeli-Palestinian front, although behind the scenes, relations between Israel and other Arab states have been improving.

The president would like to come into Election Day 2020 with something more to his credit than simply fostering a quiet trend  — something big, like the nuclear disarmament of the Korean peninsula, or a new nuclear deal with Iran. At present, this doesn’t seem likely; the Iranians were responsible for the shooting that led to the death of an American citizen in Iraq last week, while the North Koreans have been threatening to send Trump a “New Year’s gift.” The president will probably continue to exert maximal pressure on these two regimes, hoping crippling sanctions will change at least one dictator’s mind.

Whither the Economy?

Last July the American economy set an astonishing record: 120 months of uninterrupted growth. With Amazon’s report last week that a record-breaking holiday season helped drive the company’s stock price up 4.5%, we can now say it’s been 126 months. But will that trend hold?

While America’s economy continues to barrel ahead, all is not so rosy on the world scene. Many European countries — most prominently Germany, France, Spain, Belgium, Portugal, and Slovenia — are now selling bonds at negative interest rates, which means if you buy them, you will suffer a net loss on your investment within two years. There have also been some worrying signs from the Chinese economy, as the government there lowers its growth estimates.

The question is whether a strong US economy can remain above the fray or even power a recovery in the rest of the world. If so, Trump has his surest ticket to be reelected in November 2020. If not, the forecast becomes a lot murkier.

Congress: Impeachment, Up Against the Wall

The most dramatic issue facing Congress this year is Trump’s Senate impeachment trial. Trump’s chances of being convicted are less than that of a summer snowfall in Be’er Sheva. But the issue will occupy the media’s attention for several critical weeks. As we’ve noted in this space several times, this attention won’t necessarily benefit the Democrats and could even rebound on them like a boomerang.

Meanwhile, Congress will have to find room in a tight legislative schedule to fight over other issues, such as funding Trump’s border wall — which he wants at least partly built by Election Day. There’s also the question of sanctions on Turkey, an issue caught up in a fierce tug-of-war between the White House, the State Department, and Congress. And then there’s the proposed defense pact with Israel, a subject that will have to wait for a functioning government in Jerusalem. Will the miracle of a coalition in Israel finally come to pass in 2020? I wouldn’t put money on it.

Anti-Semitism Is Now an Emergency

This past year saw rising anti-Semitism transform from a statistic people argued about into a frightening daily reality, one that doesn’t emanate from just one side of the political map or target one particular branch of Judaism. From Pittsburgh and Poway to Monsey, the entire Jewish community felt less safe this year. And while Elan Carr was appointed as the White House special envoy on anti-Semitism, and federal funds were allocated for improving shul security nationwide, it’s clearly not enough. The next year must be characterized by an uncompromising war on anti-Semitism. The much-feared slippery slope is already here, and concerted action is necessary on every level of government — federal, state, and local — to stem the slide.

A Change of Guard?

This year, Israel’s three most senior representatives abroad — Ambassador Ron Dermer in Washington, New York consul-general Dani Dayan, and UN ambassador Danny Danon — will see their terms expire — on paper, at least. Theoretically, their terms could be extended, as Dermer’s term has been, several times already.

But Dermer — who is one of Netanyahu’s closest allies and who has helped build the close relationship with the Trump administration — might find himself on the outs if a victorious Benny Gantz manages to form a government. And in the same vein, a new government might seek a fresh start with all three positions. Three familiar faces representing Israel to America could be replaced by relative newcomers.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 792)