How does Biden intend to shape the world in the next four years?

Last week Joe Biden delivered his first foreign policy speech since moving into the Oval Office. At some points it sounded like a typical incoming president’s address, with promises to stand up to China and Russia and restore America’s standing in the world through decency and personal example, and reference to current crises such as the Myanmar military coup and the war in Yemen.

But in other respects, it revealed a huge shift away from the policies of his predecessors, Republicans and Democrats alike. So what did we learn from the speech and what was left unsaid? And how does Biden intend to shape the world in the next four years?

The Middle East Isn’t a Priority

The division of labor in the new administration is clear: Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is managing America’s foreign policy on a day-to-day basis, while Biden applies himself primarily to domestic issues such as COVID-19 and the economy.

After three weeks in office, it’s clear that Biden doesn’t view the Middle East as a priority for this term. In a speech lasting half an hour, the Middle East barely came up. Biden alluded to it only in connection with the war in Yemen. He also brought up Iranian attacks on Saudi targets, and promised to help Saudi Arabia defend itself. But he didn’t enter into his plan for preventing the Iranians from reaching a bomb.

The president didn’t so much as mention Israel and the Palestinians. Anyone hoping for a strong statement of support for the Jewish state, its allies in the Gulf, or the Abraham Accords was disappointed. On the other hand, Biden didn’t mention the Israeli-Palestinian conflict either, and such terms as “two-state solution,” or “peace initiative” were also blessedly absent.

Biden’s lack of interest in the Middle East means that Israel won’t get the same preferential treatment it received from the Trump administration; but Biden won’t be pressuring Israel to reach a peace deal with the Palestinians (as Obama did).

Iran Still a Big Deal

There’s one Middle Eastern issue in which the administration is heavily invested — the Iran deal. Blinken is in charge of negotiations. Last week he spoke with foreign ministers from the UK, France, and Germany, all party to the original deal. As of this writing, no talks have been held with Israel or the Gulf States — at least, none that the administration has reported.

At his confirmation hearing in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, Blinken promised to consult America’s allies in the region — including Israel and the Gulf States — at the beginning of the process, rather than at the end. It seems Biden wants to return to the deal, but he would also like to repair ties with American allies in the region alienated by the Obama administration’s refusal to consult them in 2015.

China and Russia

And with the Middle East no longer on the administration’s agenda, China and Russia are catapulted to primary importance. One of Biden’s first conversations after assuming office was with Vladimir Putin — and it wasn’t exactly a convivial chat.

Among other things, Biden touched on the very delicate issue of Ukraine’s territorial integrity — apparently with reference to Crimea (occupied by Russia since 2014). He also raised the SolarWinds hack into US government agencies, which the US attributes to Russia, as well as the report that Russia offered bounties for the heads of American fighters in Afghanistan. In addition, Biden addressed Russian intervention in the 2020 election and the imprisonment of Alexey Navalny. In short, it was a very different type of call from the others Biden has made so far.

But the question is what the administration will do in practice. Should we expect sanctions? At this stage it’s too early to tell. State Department spokesman Ned Price said the administration is conducting a review of American foreign policy in every area, including Russia. But Blinken can’t drag this process out forever. If the United States wants to send a decisive message to Russia, it will probably have to act soon.

With China, the situation is more complicated. In reality China is of much greater concern to the US than Russia at this point. With intellectual property theft issues, cyber concerns, and the trade war, relations between the two countries are at a nadir. Biden has yet to speak with Xi Jinping, but he wants to make clear he has no intention of being soft on China.

A significant part of Biden’s first foreign policy speech was devoted to domestic issues, and China is the best example of that. Biden understands the impact the Chinese economy has on the American job market. Every cheap Chinese product will ultimately lead to lost jobs in the United States. It was Trump’s populist campaign that first raised the issue of globalization to national prominence. The COVID crisis has driven home the point about the importance of local manufacture with the blows to trade and tourism.

Biden and his administration will also have to determine whether they view the Chinese Uighur concentration camps as genocide — and if so, how to act. In his conversation with his Chinese counterpart this week, Blinken raised human rights concerns in Xinjiang, Hong Kong, and Tibet. All this presents ample opportunity for friction between the two powers, and very little ground for cooperation.

The State Department spokesman said last week that the two countries could find common ground in the battle against climate change, but that will require mutual trust, and it’s hard to see where that can come from.

Last week, for example, the US Navy announced that an American warship was sailing near the Chinese-held Paracel Islands as part of a freedom of navigation operation in the South China Sea. The Chinese condemned the move and sent air and naval units to shadow the intruding craft. As things look now, relations between the two countries are shaping up to be tense.

Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, said the economic statecraft tools available to Biden are targeted financial sanctions and executive orders on cyber or Magnitsky Act powers.

“Whether the administration uses them robustly remains to be seen,” Schanzer added. “But it’s their best option, even if it’s unilateral. Pressure at the UN is high unlikely. Bilateral or multilateral policies are possible but may lack efficacy.”

Mike Pregent, a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, told Mishpacha that if the Biden team is speaking in aggressive terms on Russian and China, one way to signal that they are serious would be to keep current sanctions in place on Iran.

“China and Russia will benefit with any lifeline sent to the [Iranian] regime — they joined the JCPOA for military contracts and oil rights, for economic benefit,” he said. “Do not let Russia and China exploit a weak US position on Iran — send a message to both through a tough Iran position.”

Immigration — Challenge on the Southern Border

Biden has announced a number of major policy reversals on immigration. For instance, resolving the status of children of “Dreamers,” brought into the United States illegally by their parents. He also canceled the Trump travel ban on six majority-Muslim countries.

But on Motzaei Shabbos, Blinken notified Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador that the asylum deals signed with them by Trump to reduce immigration to the United States are being suspended. The deals stipulated that asylum seekers would have to enter one of those three countries and prove their claims. Blinken called the move “the first concrete steps on the path to greater partnership and collaboration in the region laid out by President Biden.”

In addition, Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas told CNN that the new administration would end the policy whereby asylum seekers had to wait in Mexico while their applications were being considered by American authorities.

According to a New York Times report from Motzaei Shabbos, the change in policy has led asylum seekers to flock to the US-Mexico border, putting the new policy to the test. And while many of them are fleeing extreme poverty and desperate living conditions, there’s no ruling out that the numbers will continue climbing sharply — which will force Biden to think twice about his border policy. He could either get tougher, or relax conditions even further and throw the doors open for floods of immigrants.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 848)