Photos: Menachem Kalish

T

he eyes of the world turn to Helsinki in less than two weeks, when President Donald Trump meets Russian president Vladimir Putin at their first formal summit. The parley comes at a critical moment. Trump will come to the Finnish capital straight from a meeting of NATO leaders in Brussels, not long after the recent contentious G7 summit — all this with the ongoing Robert Mueller probe into Russian election meddling still nipping at his heels. Putin, meanwhile, who expertly played a weak hand against former US president Barack Obama in Syria, will come prepared with a list of objectives he hopes will keep Russia in the geopolitical game.

What should we watch for as the summit gets underway?

Interpersonal dynamics

The most intriguing question will be how the two men relate to each other. Trump’s genial style with other leaders elicited scorn from critics when he directed it at Kim Jong-un. Will this summit be a polite diplomatic meeting between two superpowers, or more like a friendly, back-slapping get-together? Given that Trump’s recent exchanges with allied leaders have been testy, good-natured banter with Putin will likely raise anxiety among NATO members.

Economic sanctions

The US joined international sanctions against Russia for its 2014 takeover of Crimea from Ukraine. Trump drew fire at the recent G7 summit for questioning why other leaders sided with Ukraine, asserting that Crimea’s Russian speakers want to live under Moscow’s rule. (In fact, a 1989 Soviet census showed that two-thirds of Crimeans identified as Russian; and a 2014 census after Russia’s annexation showed that figure largely unchanged.) Putin will probably ask that sanctions be eased. The question is whether Trump will agree, and what he’ll ask for in return.

Meddling in elections

Trump has shown himself to be underwhelmed by American intelligence claims that Russia engineered his victory in the 2016 elections, even though that is the consensus view among analysts. Last week Trump tweeted that the Russians continue to deny involvement, and demanded to know why the FBI didn’t give greater scrutiny to the Clinton campaign and the Democratic National Committee.

Iranian forces in Syria

Both superpowers have diverging interests in the Middle East. Putin is eager to keep Bashar al-Assad in power in Damascus, Trump is looking to reduce the US military presence in the region. They might be able to reach some kind of accord on Iranian troops in Syria. The US supports Israel’s interests on the matter, and Putin has signaled to Tehran that he is growing weary of its escapades in the Levant. Trump and Putin might forge some kind of agreement, even just a symbolic declaration, that Iranian forces should be removed from Syria.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 717)