P

resident Trump will get a golden opportunity to make a lasting impact on the makeup of the Supreme Court, following 81-year-old Justice Anthony Kennedy’s announcement that he will retire effective July 31. This means Trump will nominate his second candidate for the high court before the middle of his first term.

Tevi Troy, presidential historian and former Bush administration official, gave an insider’s perspective. “Each of the last four presidents has made two picks, so two picks is not unheard of,” he said, pointing out that President Ronald Reagan made three appointments. “It is true that two picks so early in an administration is unusual, but it does not presuppose that there would be additional picks over the course of this presidency.”

For Republicans, the political significance of this appointment will be momentous. Kennedy was widely viewed as a swing vote on the Court, but he is perhaps best known for authoring the controversial Obergefell decision that overturned the traditional definition of marriage. Trump has stated that his next pick will come from the same list of

25 conservative judges from which he drew his first nominee, Justice Neil Gorsuch. He will now be in a position to establish a conservative majority in the judiciary, whose rulings will determine morality issues in the United States for decades to come.

With congressional midterm elections in the offing, the timing is also auspicious. Supreme Court picks tend to excite party bases — although this year, both bases were already ginned up. Simply put: Voters whose president managed to appoint two Supreme Court justices in the first half of his presidency will be well motivated to get out and vote in the November midterms. By the same token, Democrats will be desperate to reverse the trend.

Trump said he’d announce his choice on July 9, naming five candidates, two of them women. Odds favor selection of a female candidate, to suit the optics of the moment, and to blunt criticism of what will likely be a conservative choice.

Here are thumbnail sketches of the top three:

Judge Amy Coney Barrett, United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, former Notre Dame law professor and mother of seven. As of this writing, Barrett, 46, is the presumed nominee, according to PredictIt, an online prediction market that buys and sells options on future political events. The president appointed her to the Seventh Circuit in September 2017, following a lively hearing at which Democrats, notably California senator Dianne Feinstein, interrogated Barrett about whether her devout Catholicism would impede her ability to serve as a judge. If Barrett is appointed, many foresee her voting to overturn the Roe v. Wade decision that legalized abortion.

Judge Brett Kavanaugh, United States Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit. Kavanaugh, 53, is a native of Washington, D.C., a devout Catholic like Barrett, and the son of Martha Kavanaugh, a Maryland circuit court judge. He has an impressive résumé: a Yale Law School graduate and member of former president George W. Bush’s

legal team, Kavanaugh was also a top deputy to independent counsel Kenneth Starr’s investigation of President Bill Clinton, helping draft the report that recommended Clinton’s impeachment. Oh, and in 2009, Kavanaugh argued in the Minnesota Law Review that presidents should be exempt from “time-consuming and distracting” lawsuits and investigations. Sound relevant to anyone?

Judge Thomas Michael Hardiman, United States Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit. Hardiman, 51, grew up in Waltham, Mass., where his father ran a taxi and school-transportation business. Hardiman drove a cab part time to help pay for law school in Washington. He was on the list of finalists to succeed Antonin Scalia as associate justice on the Supreme Court, but was passed over for Neil Gorsuch. Hardiman is known as a staunch supporter of the Second Amendment, and ruled against appeals to place federal limitations on gun ownership for past offenders. In 2008, he wrote a dissenting opinion in favor of Evangelical Christian parents who were barred from reading the Bible during a kindergarten show-and-tell.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 717)