The past few tumultuous weeks have highlighted the deep rift in American society. The confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the US Supreme Court tore America to shreds, with left and right retreating to their tribal camps. In Washington, the modus operandi is arm twisting, not bipartisan efforts to find common ground. The days when a liberal justice like Ruth Bader Ginsburg could be confirmed by a majority of 96 to 3 sound like the stuff of science fiction.

In these fraught times, when the animosity between the political camps is real and tangible, Republicans won the latest round of fighting. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell took a huge gamble when he refused to give Judge Merrick Garland a hearing two years ago. Beyond hope, McConnell wagered that Hillary Clinton might actually lose the presidential election and Senate Republicans might be in a position to confirm a conservative jurist. That miracle happened, and this past week was McConnell’s and Trump’s victory lap.

The GOP now approaches the November 6 midterm elections with the successful seating of two conservative justices on the Supreme Court and a roaring economy. Despite the president’s problematic personality, his embarrassing statements, and his brash style, the bottom line is that Trump has delivered for his supporters — big time. Though his Tweets are ephemeral, Trump has made decisions that will mold America for many years to come.

Enthusiasm Gap No More

A generation-defining fight like the one over Judge Kavanaugh is sure to have an effect on voter enthusiasm for the upcoming elections, and polling shows that it has. Here, too, the Republicans have benefited more than the Democrats. According to an NPR/PBS survey published last week, 78% of Democrats previously viewed the upcoming elections as very important, and 82% do now. In other words, it appears that the Democrats have reached the roof with regard to interest levels. On the other hand, only 68% of Republicans said in July that these elections are very important. Last week, that number spiked to 80%. The interest level for both parties is now sky-high, but Republicans have the momentum.

Woke in Key States

On the same day the NPR/PBS survey was published, another poll showed that there has been movement in key states. According to a Fox News survey, Republican voters have “woken up” in states where Republican candidates were lagging in the polls.

For example, Republican Marsha Blackburn has opened up a five-point lead over her Democratic challenger Phil Bredesen in their Tennessee US Senate race, after a previous poll showed her trailing by three points. In North Dakota, Kevin Cramer has opened up a double-digit gap over incumbent Democratic senator Heidi Heitkamp, who recently voted no on Judge Kavanaugh’s confirmation.

At the same time, the FiveThirtyEight website, which aggregates and analyses polling information, found that Republican chances of keeping the Senate had spiked 9% since the Kavanaugh hearings, from 68% to 77%.

That’s not to say Republicans aren’t still worried about several races across the country. Indeed, in Missouri, Indiana, and Arizona, GOP candidates are in trouble in states that Trump and the party had hoped to win easily.

Alarm Bells for Democrats

The good news for the Democrats is that they are heavily favored to retake control of the US House of Representatives. But even here, there are worrying signs. A Gallup poll from the end of September shows that just 26% of voters aged 18 to 29 — a block that affiliates more with the Democratic party — say they will vote in the midterm elections. Because the deadline for voter registration has passed in most states, no amount of enthusiasm can change that reality.

Among Hispanic voters, another base for Democratic votes, only 27% said they will certainly vote in November. That’s in contrast to the 65% of the white population who said they’d vote. These are significant numbers, if only because the question of whether one will vote is far more significant than whom one might hypothetically support.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 730)