As President Trump heads into the midterm elections, he’s got a roaring economy to his credit, prospects to keep the Senate in GOP hands, and the appointment of a second Supreme Court justice in his first two years in office.

He’s also got a headache in the form of murdered Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

Though the Saudis have produced a story explaining Khashoggi’s death, it’s not one anyone is believing, including Donald Trump. “I want to get the answer,” he said last week in Nevada — but that hasn’t been enough for his critics. Some have called for sanctions on Saudi Arabia, while Trump has tried to tamp down expectations of a major rupture with an important ally.

Trump wouldn’t be the first president to look the other way when a partner acts badly. The Obama administration negotiated with Iran even while that country was considered the world’s leading sponsor of terrorism. During the 1980s, America befriended Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein before his invasion of Kuwait.

But this time it feels different. Saudi crown prince Mohammad bin Salman was supposed to be the young reformer who would bring Saudi Arabia into the Western fold. He made early moves, like allowing women to drive, taking on religious authorities, and even cozying up to once-hated enemy Israel.

But even as the press lauded MBS, he imprisoned senior Saudi officials and businessmen at the Ritz Carlton in Riyadh and placed Lebanese prime minister Saad al-Hariri under house arrest. He even kept his own mother jailed in the palace for months. Could it be that MBS interpreted his close ties with Washington as a green light to indulge his excesses?

There’s a twist to the story, one that the Saudis and Trump likely didn’t see coming. Since the murder occurred in the Saudi consulate in Istanbul, the Turks have a great deal of information on the affair. This means that Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has a long history of clashes with Trump and who just last week, after heavy pressure from Washington, finally released cleric Andrew Brunson from a Turkish jail, holds the key. If he wills it, he can bury the story forever, and Trump can campaign for the midterm elections without distraction. Or he can continue to expose more and more evidence, including rumored recordings from the investigation, milking the story for all it’s worth. Not only will this cause Trump great embarrassment, it will also create pressure on the White House to take action against the kingdom, thus endangering billions of dollars in arms sales and the beginning of a fruitful strategic relationship in the Middle East.

Call it an October surprise.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 732)