Biden’s term so far can be divided into two periods: before Afghanistan, and after

Joe Biden is determined to carry out a “reset” of his presidency to save the Democratic Party from humiliation in the midterm elections. Biden’s term so far can be divided into two periods: before Afghanistan, and after.

Before the withdrawal, the president had managed to get his relief bill approved by Congress, and thanks to a quick and efficient vaccine rollout, America started returning to normal.

But the Afghanistan withdrawal, intended as a “promises kept” moment, was the first in a string of serious missteps. Although Biden was able to pass his infrastructure bill, his Build Back Better program and his voting reform bill have foundered on the continued opposition of Senators Joe Manchin and Kirsten Sinema.

Every crisis is an opportunity, as the cliché goes, and it could be that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is Biden’s chance to rehabilitate his international standing. The US has deployed thousands of troops to Eastern Europe, and Olaf Scholz, the new German chancellor, visited the White House this week.

Biden hopes simply to forestall a Russian invasion, but if he fails, he’ll have to impose sanctions that will be sufficiently painful for Russia to change its behavior, but not strong enough to provoke Putin to sabotage the world energy market in the middle of the cold European winter. This problem is keeping American allies awake at night.

At the same time, Biden has received the golden opportunity of filling a Supreme Court vacancy. Justice Stephen Breyer’s retirement could give Biden his first significant victory of 2022 and breathe new life into despondent Democratic voters, who have seen their party suffer humiliating reverses in a string of local and gubernatorial elections since 2020.

The president’s commitment to appoint the first black woman to the Court has led several Republicans to declare their support for the measure in principle, at least. Sinema and Manchin will likely to support his Supreme Court nominee.

Biden will need some accomplishment to run on in the elections, and with all due respect to his Ukraine policy, a domestic achievement is always preferable. From Biden’s perspective, the best thing would be something Americans could feel in their pockets — expanded child tax credits, subsidized health insurance, or education.

There’s not really much Biden can do about inflation — that’s in the Federal Reserve’s hands. But if the American economy can’t achieve the Reserve’s goal of 2.6% inflation by year end, it’s hard to see Democrats retaining control of both houses of Congress in the midterms. Fair or not, these factors could well decide whether Biden works with a Republican or Democratic Congress in the second half of his term.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 898)