LISTEN: The Republican Party has a major decision to make. Do they break from Donald Trump? Or do they reconcile with Trump, or at least keep him on their good side

Politics has become more unpredictable than ever, but there is one prediction I’m willing to make.

Donald Trump will not be impeached again.

House Democrats swung and missed twice.

Now the Republicans are at the plate, pinch-hitting for the Democrats. Will they swing and miss for a third strike?

What do I mean by all this?

It’s very simple. The Republican Party has a major decision to make. Do they break from Donald Trump? Like the Republican 7 that voted Trump guilty of insurrection in the senate?

Like Nikki Haley and Mitch McConnell who have put distance between themselves and Trump by criticizing his actions on the day of Wednesday, January 6, 2021?

Or do Republicans make up with Trump, or at least keep him on their good side

It’s a huuuuge question with huuugee implications for the future of the party, the country,  Trump himself and anyone else yearning to be the party’s presidential nominee in 2024.

But there’s one even more important date to keep in mind before we get to 2024.

2022.

November 2022 is the date for the midterm Congressional elections. The most important goal for the Republicans is to retake the House of Representatives. And it’s achievable. The Republicans might have lost both the White House and the senate this past November, but they actually gained seats in the House. They cut the Democrat’s lead to single digits. During the course of 2021, states will be redistricting based on changes in population. This is a political exercise that takes place every 10 years after the Census to make sure that representation in Washington remains fairly apportioned among the states. Since Republicans hold a majority over Democrats on the state level, they will take every possible legal advantage of the process to redraw congressional districts to favor Republican candidates.

With Republicans poised to recapture the House, it would be political suicide to launch a full, frontal attack on Donald Trump. This is true whether you’re pro-Trump or anti-Trump.

Republicans would be much wiser to stay in Trump’s good graces. That way, he is more likely to throw his support behind their effort rather than launch a third party, or target Republicans in the 2022 primaries who he feels were disloyal to him.

Once we get past 2022, then we can start looking ahead to the 2024 presidential election.

Let Trump throw his red MAGA hat in the ring. Let Nikki Haley and Mike Pence and Mitt Romney and Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton …and that list will grow .. let them announce their candidacy as well. Let’s have a battle of ideas. The party will benefit from competitive primaries.

But declaring Trump a persona non grata, or passing a law to bar him from running for public office again will only backfire.

More than 74 million Americans voted for Trump. I would venture a guess that most of them voted for Trump because they liked Trump and not because he ran as a Republican. Polls indicate that at least 1/3 to ½ of Trump’s voters are still loyal to Trump.

Republicans can’t afford to antagonize 25-35 million voters – and they certainly can’t afford to split into two parties in advance of a midterm election where they’re the favorites.

And its not like his political enemies are faring so well. The so called Lincoln Project – a group of anti-Trump Republicans – has disintegrated in a scandal. Not one name among the  Republican 7 who voted Trump guilty in the senate trial will find themselves anywhere near the top of the party ticket in 2024. Well, Mitt Romney might try again, but after his uninspiring second place finish to Obama in 2016, why would the GOP take another flier on him?

2024 needs to be a fair fight. The Republicans can’t sit back and hand the nomination to Trump, even if he wants it again, and even if he still insists he was cheated out of the presidency. Frankly, the president ought to drop that line of attack. He needs to look ahead, not back. He needs to show the same confidence – and humility – that he displayed at his farewell speech at Andrews Air Force Base on January 20^th when he flew off from frigid Washington to sunny Florida. Trump deserves a chance to prove that he has learned from his mistakes.

And if he hasn’t, or he doesn’t? Then you can make a clear case that it’s time to move on.

This is Binyamin Rose for Mishpacha.com