Can Israel's Mr. Indispensable make his case to a restless public?

Photos: AP images, Flash 90

When historians write the final chapter on Binyamin Netanyahu’s political career, will he join the short list of celebrated statesmen, in the mold of Winston Churchill?

Or will he be counted among the list of leaders such as former US president Richard Nixon, who despite their intellect, talents, and accomplishments, left the public stage wounded, their reputations permanently tarnished by scandal?

The wheels of history grind slowly. It will take years before the historical judgment can be fairly rendered on Netanyahu’s remarkable 30-year political career.

In answer to the burning question of the day: Is this finally the end of the Binyamin Netanyahu era? And what’s next for Israel’s fractious political terrain? One can only say at press time that there is a noose tightening around the prime minister’s political neck and nobody is helping to loosen it.

Under Israeli law, Netanyahu may continue to serve as prime minister despite the pending charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. He will employ every legal method to retain power while his enemies and political opponents will exploit every legal means to oust him. Bibi retains the title of prime minister, but without a coalition to protect him and grant him immunity from prosecution, the legal establishment has more means at its disposal to oust him or make it impossible for him to rule. Ultimately, it might come down to a battle between the Knesset and the Supreme Court, in which the court will back the legal establishment and the Knesset will fail to act, faced once again with a barrage of self-righteousness from Israel’s quirky legal system and their partners, the mainstream media.

Ultimately, it is Netanyahu’s own Likud party that will determine his immediate political fate.

As of press time, which for us was Sunday this week, Gideon Saar had already thrown down the gauntlet, asking the Likud to hold a snap primary for new leadership, and recommending himself as new party leader. A few hours later, newly elected Likud member and former Jerusalem mayor Nir Barkat suggested holding primaries for a “deputy party leader” who would not immediately unseat Netanyahu but would be ready in case Bibi becomes politically indisposed.

Despite Netanyahu’s initial resistance, Likud party members were scheduled to debate these and perhaps other ideas Sunday night. They have little time to decide on the wisest course as the political clock is ticking.

Following the failure of both Netanyahu and his chief rival Benny Gantz to form a coalition, Israel has entered a no-man’s-land of 21-days ending on December 10, a period that will end either with the formation of a new government or with an announcement of new elections in March 2020, the third time voters will go to the polls in less than 365 days. During this 21-day period, any Knesset member who can garner the support of 61 MKs could potentially become the next prime minister.

Whether you like Bibi or not, he has been in power for ten consecutive years, providing Israel a stability that few, if any countries around the world can match. This 21-day period is fraught with uncertainty and is clearly the greatest challenge that Israel’s parliamentary democracy has ever faced.

Facing the Endgame

Bibi may be guilty of crimes. He may be guilty only of poor judgment. He might have been set up. He might be innocent. But the days of remaining innocent until proven guilty have been relegated to the scrap heap of history in an era of 24/7 scrolling headlines, where citizens make instantaneous judgments and then dig in their heels.

Most people have already made up their minds on Netanyahu’s innocence or guilt based on whether they love or hate Bibi.

In the very short-term, it will be the Likud itself that determines whether Bibi stays or goes. In Israel’s parliamentary democracy, Netanyahu is prime minister by virtue of the fact that he is number one on his party’s ticket.

The Likud has ruled Israel for some 30 out of the last 40 years, and only four men have headed the top of the ticket: Menachem Begin, Yitzhak Shamir, Ariel Sharon, and Binyamin Netanyahu. The party values stability. No matter how many Likud members publicly profess their loyalty to Netanyahu, privately none want to see the Likud consigned to the opposition.

Relegated to the opposition, their former coalition partners, the chareidim, national religious, and new right parties will have plenty of time to wring their hands, wondering how their once airtight center-right majority evaporated into thin air.

Where does that leave Bibi?

For now, as far as Bibi is concerned, he has to be scratching his head, saying: “What did I do to deserve this?”

In Bibi’s worldview, he accepted a few trinkets, fought under the table for better press coverage, and doled out a few political favors to his friends. Show me a politician who doesn’t do favors for his friends, and I’ll show you a politician whose term in office will be short.

Netanyahu didn’t take an envelope stuffed with cash like Ehud Olmert, nor did he direct his attorney general to cover up a criminal investigation to protect cronies and fire people investigating him like Nixon. In Bibi’s case, it was the very attorney general he appointed — the one who used to serve as his cabinet secretary and sit aside him at cabinet meetings — Avichai Mandelblit, who leveled the charges at Bibi. And Netanyahu made no attempt to tamper with the probe.

A Record of Accomplishment

At the same time, Bibi’s accomplishments make him a Churchill-like statesman.

Netanyahu not only holds the record for longevity in the office of prime minister of Israel, but the quality exceeds the quantity.

Perhaps his most recognizable talent is the command he displays on the public stage and his  powers of persuasion. He can meet face to face with foreign leaders, sit before the cameras, and stand in front of international audiences and firmly and confidently explain Israel’s positions, with all the necessary historical context, in a fluent, unaccented English.

Netanyahu, who served as Israel’s UN ambassador and foreign minister before becoming prime minister for the first time in 1996, will be remembered as both a pragmatic and wily politician, always taking a cautious, middle-of-the-road approach. He stopped the territorial withdrawals under the Oslo process without entirely slamming shut the doors to the peace process, while cultivating relationships with other Arab and Muslim states. He withstood eight years of psychological pressure from President Obama, maintained constructive relations with other heads of state (even if they expressed frustration with Bibi), and presided over the growth of Israel’s military and economic growth. Last year, US News and World Report ranked Israel eighth on its list of world powers.

Following is a short list of Bibi’s main achievements along with his unfinished business. It will be up to the Likud party, the voters, and perhaps the courts — including the Supreme Court — to determine if the list ends here and historians can start scribbling, or if this list is premature.