Whisper in Their Ear

Avi grew up in Los Angeles, a city whose population exceeds the country he’s currently striving to protect. He met Sarah not long after graduating from UCSD, and they shared their journey to Torah observance, with the encouragement and guidance of the rabbis at UCLA Hillel and the Westwood Kehilla.

Back in the 1990s, Avi Schnurr was working in the US at TRW/Northrop Grumman, a multibillion-dollar aerospace and defense company, when Sarah challenged him to take on a new, ambitious project. She had just read about a child in Kiryat Shmona who was killed by a Katyusha rocket. “Can’t you do something about those rockets with your lasers?” she insisted.

“Sarah, you have no idea what you’re asking,” Avi told her. “Starting a joint high tech laser project on this scale would require reaching decision makers at the highest levels in both the US and Israel. It would be an epochal event, reported in the headlines of most of the world’s newspapers.”

But Sarah’s challenge spurred him to act. Ultimately, Avi founded and managed the US-Israel Tactical High Energy Laser Project, the world’s first anti-rocket high energy laser weapon prototype (and a precursor to current advanced high energy laser missile defense systems). It was an extraordinarily challenging assignment that required direct engagement with then Prime Minister Shimon Peres, US President Bill Clinton, and US Defense Secretary William Perry. A few years later, Prime Minister Peres and President Bill Clinton shook hands on the deal, which was, indeed, reported in headlines of newspapers across the world.

Avi’s accomplishments have grown exponentially since then, although he’s reluctant to expound.

Working with former IAF Commander Herzl Bodinger, he founded Amutat Ayi”t — the Israel Missile Defense Association. As time went on, he became seriously concerned about the steady growth of nuclear technology being pursued by rogue states, and began meeting with international leaders to explore the potential of a shared effort to address it as a devastating, common threat. That campaign brought him to Brussels, London, Washington, D.C., and, closer to home, Israel government offices. It was these exploratory trips that ultimately led to the formation of the EIS Council.

The power couple made aliyah almost 20 years ago, and are now enjoying the nachas from their children and grandchildren, most of whom live in Israel as well. But Avi and Sarah are far from retired. As soon as they settled into their new home, they got back to work, sharing their vital expertise with a country that faces constant, multiple security threats on the ground, in the air, and in between. Now, focusing on the tightly interdependent infrastructures that power our lives, Avi has turned his considerable talent and energy to doomsday scenarios that seem increasingly likely, from the simmering cauldron that is the Middle East to the tech-heavy heartland of the US, and, closer to home, the UK.

“Our focus has been to encourage resilience planning,” he says. “Because as a civilization, we’ve reached this crazy position where our lives are fully dependent on these interlocked machines, and we have to start building resilience into them.”

Panic Room

The situation in the north is escalating. Make sure to stock up on essentials right away! The panic-inducing message has circulated multiple times in Israel this year via WhatsApp and email, sending citizens scurrying to purchase necessities such as bottled water, batteries, canned foods, and dry goods.

Don’t forget radios and flashlights!

October 7 shook the steadfast belief of the Israeli nation in their government’s ability to predict danger, and ultimately protect them from it. Since then, fears have grown of the potential for severe infrastructure shocks, with large-scale grid outages and other crisis scenarios becoming a common theme in Israel’s media.

Close to 11 months later, as the country awaits an attack from Iran and Hezbollah — which brings the real risk of loss of electricity, water, and communications — Avi Schnurr exudes a sense of deep calm.

“First of all, none of us are prophets,” Avi says. “Government officials are not prophets. Media pundits are not prophets.  I’m not a prophet. There is no question, if a full-scale war with Hezbollah breaks out, it’s going to be difficult. There are going to be big challenges. I assume there will be power outages. How extensive will they be? How long will they last? I don’t know.

“But for many years, Chevrat Chashmal (Israel Electric Corporation) has been systematically building protection into grid installations, putting in a lot of concrete to shield critical facilities. That said, it certainly would be a great idea for people to have emergency supplies, because in the event of a serious crisis, salvation is not going to be instantaneous. It could take hours, or even days. So stocking up on supplies would definitely be helpful. Water, flashlights, batteries, radio with lots of batteries. Cash. Daily medications.”

But in his position as a big-picture strategist, Avi readily admits that the prime responsibility falls on the infrastructure corporations that keep everything going, and on governments. That’s what he spends most of his time doing: hosting and catalyzing critical research, planning, and capability development needed to prepare major countries such as the US, Israel, the UK, and partner nations to survive catastrophic “Black Sky” disasters.

“Black Sky” refers to a multi-region, national or even subcontinent-scale blackout and cascading failure of all life sustaining resources and services. A “Black Sky” event used to be the stuff of horror movies or science fiction, but analysts warn that it can no longer be treated as an imaginary threat. In order to keep citizens safe and critical institutions functioning, modern countries must think ahead and develop concrete plans for resilience.

Rise to the Occasion

What would that resilience look like, and how would it counter the threats? There are actually four different areas that Avi and his team include in their disaster planning.

The first is keeping the country’s electric sources safe, even in case of an attack.

Many people think of “power” as some sort of invisible force. But at its base, the power grid relies on tangible, physical objects. Power is supplied to a region by electric plants, which generate electricity. “Load” is the term used to reference customers who are using electricity. Power output and load must be kept in balance. For example, in a stressing scenario, if there’s too much load appearing — too many households turning on their air conditioners, for example — there’s a risk that power usage might exceed the generating capacity. So grid operators who see a high load might have to start pulling down the switches and shut down power to some neighborhoods.

In the case of an extreme Black Sky hazard, whether or not operators were involved, the system would almost certainly shut down, and with the grid off, everyone in the region would lose electricity. Depending on the damage done, getting the grid back up would not be easy. It would take much longer than anyone wants. That’s why protection is critical — to prevent a shutdown and, if one does occur, to make it as brief as possible.

“Once I moved to Israel, I became involved in missile defense discussions,” Avi says. “We talked about politics, strategy, and so forth. And it became clear that although Israel was on a path to protection against most emergencies and missile defense as well, there was a gap in Israel’s plans. The gap was the EMP.”

EMPs (short for electromagnetic pulses) are formed when there is a nuclear detonation above the atmosphere, around 30 to 50 kilometers above ground level. An electromagnetic pulse is created by the explosion, radiating from the upper atmosphere and spreading outward from the height of the detonation to large ranges, wreaking significant damage to electric networks down below. [See sidebar for further explanation of the EMP threat.]

The Israel Electric Corporation has implemented important measures for EMP protection, but more must be done. “That’s what we’re advising,” Avi says. “It’s actually not that difficult and not really high tech and not very expensive to protect from EMPs. The key is really making the commitment, and getting started.”

In fact, Israel’s Rafael Advanced Weapons Systems has already developed B-Net, a best-in-class mesh network radio communication system that is EMP-protected and offers other features that would be crucial in recovery from a Black Sky disaster. Deployment has already taken place across a key element of the US power grid, and Avi hopes the system will soon be deployed across Israel’s power grid.

The second area of Avi’s focus is emergency power. Ideally, in a Black Sky scenario, a facility’s emergency power system should be designed with the flexibility to allow operation at different levels depending on need during an outage, to maximize how long it can operate. There are certainly systems in Israel that have these capabilities. Others only have capabilities considered typical in the United States, meaning they are designed to operate for 12 to 24 hours. “Those systems need to be redesigned so they can save as much of their limited fuel as possible to ride out a long outage,” Avi says.

Complementary small power modules working at very low power could be utilized in these situations to keep the most critical instruments going for months. Avi makes the point that this is critical to prepare for any extreme event — but he and his team are about to publish a peer-reviewed handbook recommending this as just one of a wide range of measures that could be crucial to recovery from long outages. A third area his team is focusing on is building a multi-infrastructure simulation. This is a big-picture system designed to help infrastructure companies and governments make crucial priority decisions to save lives and use resources wisely, both before a disaster hits, and for recovery, in real time. The team is developing a platform that will interconnect all the key infrastructure companies and suppliers, sharing just the key performance data they need from each other, and then crunching through that data to get AI-enhanced recommendations.

“Imagine,” says Avi, “that you work at an electricity, water, or food distribution company in the United States, and the eastern grid, which covers about half the country, goes dark. What do you do if you are an operator in a critical facility? Assuming you can do anything, how do you sort through the countless action chains to know which decisions will put the community you serve on the road to recovery, and which lead to a brick wall? Where should you start trying to rebuild the power grid, send scarce emergency fuel, direct a food truck? Where do you ship critical pharmaceuticals?

“Whatever the decision is, no human is going to be able to sort through all that. You need to have a really good simulation system that spans everything that’s still operating, pulls all the information in, and just like Waze, tells you — not how to get from here to there — but what to do so that the maximum number of people will survive.”

That’s the platform Avi’s team is working to develop in Israel — a simulator called GINOM, which stands for Global Infrastructure Network Optimization Model. It is being developed on contract with the Ministry of Energy.

The fourth and perhaps most crucial area that Avi highlights is communication. Everything depends on communication, he emphasizes. Although we tend to take cellphones for granted, they actually rely on a complex network that relies on the grid. In a Black Sky scenario, cell towers won’t continue to operate indefinitely. They might operate for hours or a couple of days. But if the power outage goes on long enough, then communications stop. Ironclad security of the country’s communications systems is therefore critical, at least between essential facilities.

Israel Is Well-Prepared

While Israel faces a dizzying number of threats — many emanating from dangerously close neighbors — Avi can attest, from his closeup involvement, that the country is well-prepared for disaster.

“I believe that Israel has far better backup in general, certainly for the civil sector, than most other countries,” he says. “I know, for example, that the water system in Israel has very good emergency generation and fuel reserves. Even if the water system was knocked out, every neighborhood has hidden special locations, so no one would have to walk more than 500 meters to a place where water would be available. There are extensive, well thought out preparations for extreme events.

“In fact, the United States has a far bigger problem,” he points out. “In Israel, most of the electrical grid, let’s say the whole transmission system, is run by one company, Chevrat Chashmal. In the United States, there are approximately 3,100 power companies. That means 3,100 companies that have to figure out what to do, find the resources and work with 50 state regulatory agencies. Then there’s the federal agency. With that scale and complexity, it takes tremendous logistical and political coordination to get the US to where it needs to be for Black Sky disasters.”

When it comes to missile defense systems, Avi assesses that Israel is ahead of the US as well. “There is no other country that has anything even in the same class as Israel,” he says firmly. “Not Europe, not the United States.” And it’s not just because the US is so much larger than Israel, he says; it’s because of a lack of the necessary willpower and unity to consolidate all the advocacy needed, procure the budgets, actually develop and test systems that could fully protect the nation.

In Israel, where the threats are much more intense and immediate, Avi actually feels the situation is more positive.

“When it comes to emergency management, Israel is recognized worldwide to be best in class. We take emergencies seriously and there’s an enormous amount of preparation for most kinds of emergencies. There’s a lot that will need to be said about October 7th in that regard,” he says, “but the main takeaway, going forward, is that being prepared for unimaginable scenarios now makes a lot more sense. Like the night of April 14th, for instance.”

It was a surreal experience for those in Israel at the time, knowing that more than 300 missiles and drones were on their way, in a devastating attack. Yet, seeing life going on as usual the next morning, it felt like a miracle.

The salvation was so quick, so clean, so seemingly effortless.

Avi laughs. “Effortless. Let me tell you the story of a group of farsighted physicists, engineers, and scientists who got together, around thirty years ago, and spun theories back and forth.”

More than 30 years ago, a group of gifted Israelis sat together and played “Worst Case Scenario,” mapping out a scenario in which Israel’s many enemies would decide to attack the nation, sending massive numbers of ballistic and cruise missiles. Assessing the scenario from all angles, the group of scientists and physicists determined that it wasn’t clear that the country could survive such a hit with its existing resources. So they devoted their lives and careers to working through the complex political, technical, and financial challenges it would take to ensure there were systems in place to secure Israel’s survival of such an attack.

Those systems, the outcome of the dedication of a small group of visionary engineers and scientists, were tested and deployed, but had never faced a real enemy missile salvo. Until April 14th — when Israel launched those interceptors against the largest missile salvo in world history, and watched in astonishment as the 30-year-old vision protected our lives and our future.

Iran did not fathom how spectacularly their attack would fail. And while it’s clear to all that Hashem spread His arms wide to protect His country that night, the earthly hishtadlus initiative played a vital role. That’s the kind of contingency planning Avi sees as crucial right now.

“We need to be ahead of the game,” he says. “We need systems in place that can handle an infrastructure attack on any scale. Because in today’s day and age, every single system is interdependent, and if we suffer a grid attack on a scale far beyond what we’re prepared for, then, like the human body with an internal injury, the country could suffer organ failure.”

What makes the story all the more intriguing is that our enemies must know that our response to a serious attack would be devastating.

And still, in this strange reality that is life in the Middle East, Israel must plan for its enemies to make a move that sabotages their own chances — just to hurt the Jewish people.

That’s what occupies Avi and his team, day and night.

“One could dream that a rational enemy wouldn’t launch a devastating attack if it would mean disaster for them as well. But honestly, since when have we been able to count on our enemies to act rationally?”

EMPs

The Nuclear Fallout Too Close to Home

Back in 1962, the US and Russia both conducted upper atmosphere nuclear tests. Today, that’s unthinkable, especially with what is known about nuclear waste — but back then, the nuclear race made these tests fair game.

The US’s first test was dubbed Starfish Prime. They chose an area over a location far from population centers in the Pacific, around 900 miles from Hawaii, and detonated a nuclear warhead well above the atmosphere. While the physicists running the test were not surprised, everyone else was pretty shocked when streetlights went down in Hawaii and various other electric and magnetic systems simply stopped working. That’s when knowledge of electromagnetic pulses, or EMPs, came to light.

Nuclear EMPs are formed by a nuclear detonation above the atmosphere, at least 30 to 50 kilometers above the earth’s surface. The electromagnetic pulse caused by that explosion radiates outward and downward from the upper atmosphere and causes damage to electric equipment over a wide area below.

What makes EMPs particularly destructive is that the pulse will disrupt or destroy some of the electronics in critical infrastructures, over very wide ranges. This is particularly dangerous for power grids, with their very long transmission and distribution systems, which act almost like antennas.

While the US did their first test over the Pacific, the Soviet Union conducted a test over part of their own country:

They chose Kazakhstan in Central Asia for their “K Project.”

During the brief period of detente between Russia and the United States, Russia sent a team to the US Congress to talk about the results of their testing in the Kazakhstan. It had caused a fire in a power substation, telephone cables fell from poles, and a military radar was disabled.

While the weapons used by the Russians were smaller than the Starfish detonation, the damage caused by the resulting EMP was much greater because the K Project tests were done over a large populated land mass, and at a location where the Earth’s magnetic field was greater.

If there were a nuclear EMP event today, the best research says that within the field of action of the EMP, a random fraction of electronics would be disabled or destroyed. And although not all electronics would be destroyed, that doesn’t help when the infrastructures that keep us alive depend on networks of these vulnerable systems. And in the 21st century, people don’t do too well without electricity, water, fuel, transportation, and communication.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1025)