A more accurate metaphor is that Netanyahu refused to get on board, so Trump just ran him over

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AT an emergency cabinet meeting last Wednesday afternoon, a visibly worried Israeli prime minister struggled to explain what happened to all the talk of seeing “eye to eye” with Washington. Netanyahu was following Trump’s Gulf state tour with dismay bordering on disbelief.

In private, he sounds a lot less sanguine than he does in public, and one gets the sense that he’s walking in the dark. Who better than he to understand the potential ramifications of Trump’s lovefest in the Gulf?

Even as Saudi Arabia, the Emirates, and Qatar emptied their pockets for Trump with massive investment commitments, Israel increasingly looks like it’s in Trump’s pocket. True, it could have been worse. Trump could have called for an end to the war and openly criticized Israel’s actions. But the situation is problematic enough as it is.

Bibi has found himself in an impossible position, excluded from Trump’s circle on every issue. It started before Trump’s visit to the region, with the direct nuclear talks with Iran and the truce with the Houthis — at Israel’s expense and without its knowledge.

Trump’s gift on his arrival, the release of Israeli-American hostage Edan Alexander through direct negotiations with Hamas, was a direct intervention in Israel’s internal affairs. Netanyahu’s boast that Israel gave up nothing in exchange for the release wasn’t much of a consolation, given that Edan’s American citizenship was the criterion for his selection. There’s no such thing as a free lunch, especially in the Middle East, and Netanyahu still doesn’t know what Trump will demand in return.

Trump’s visit prioritized Saudi Arabia not only diplomatically, but militarily as well, with the signing of a $142 billion arms deal that dwarfs Israel’s wartime defense budget.

True, Trump paid lip service to the possible future expansion of the Abraham Accords, but he didn’t demand anything concrete from the Saudis. The low point, from Israel’s perspective, was Trump’s meeting with Syrian president al-Julani, with the brokers — Saudi Arabia’s Bin Salman and Turkey’s Erdogan — appearing to cement themselves as the new Trump whisperers.

The meeting with al-Julani and lifting of sanctions on Syria testify to Trump’s new agenda, and both actions came despite personal appeals from Netanyahu. Unlike Bibi, Trump can’t stand waiting, thinking endlessly, procrastinating.

Given that the collapse of the Assad regime was a direct consequence of Israel’s campaign against Hezbollah, Netanyahu feels like he did the work but reaped none of the rewards. Trump didn’t ask al-Julani for anything in return, and even his request to evict Palestinian terrorists from Syrian territory was more of a suggestion than a demand, as was the hint about Syria joining the Abraham Accords.

A source who was a member of Netanyahu’s circle at the start of Obama’s first term explained to me how Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia and Qatar is more damaging than Obama’s notorious Cairo speech in June 2009. Then, Israel was at the center of the conversation — Obama was simply resetting America’s approach to the issue. During Trump’s visit last week, Israel was well and truly sidelined.

“Of course it’s preferable to be close to the American president, as during Trump’s first term,” said the source. “But being the president’s nemesis can also boost your image as a leader, as we saw during the Obama administration. The worst possible scenario is when he simply doesn’t care.”

The greatest strength an Israeli prime minister can have is the ability to open doors in Washington. The distance between the start of the term, when Netanyahu became the first foreign leader of Trump’s second term to visit Washington, and what we saw last week, just four months later, would make for a long flight even in a luxury Qatari jet.

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What Netanyahu will do next is the million-dollar question. In the emergency security meeting triggered by the visit, Netanyahu took comfort in the fact that Trump didn’t demand an end to the war, even as Israel sent Hamas leader Mohammed Sinwar to join his big brother with a hail of bunker-busting munitions supplied by the new administration.

But Bibi is also fully aware that getting on board with Trump’s agenda is in his own interest. Netanyahu is already working on the assumption that Israel has entered an election year, even if the coalition survives the brief summer session, in spite of the threats from the chareidi and rightist factions.

Looking ahead to next winter, it’s hard to see the coalition passing a budget for 2026 — the Gulf states may have money to splash, but in Israel, painful cuts will be necessary. All this has Netanyahu thinking about the position he’ll be in when the Knesset inevitably dissolves. Does he want to be in the thick of a head-on clash with the administration (which he himself has lauded as historically friendly) over his insistence on continuing the war in Gaza? Or does he want to be the leader who eliminated Nasrallah and signed a historic peace deal with Saudi Arabia, and, who knows, maybe even with Lebanon and Syria?

Donald Trump’s visit to the region puts basic assumptions about his Israel policy in question, but one figure who participated in the cabinet meeting postulated in conversation with me that it all boils down to Iran. If the Americans reach a deal that Netanyahu can market as a game-changing arrangement that destroys Iran’s nuclear capabilities, the sky will be the limit. If the talks break down and the talk of military strikes resumes, Netanyahu can afford to concede on every other issue.

But if he gets the sense that Trump is following Obama and giving in to Iran, Netanyahu’s sixth term will end in blood, sweat, and tears.

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Chareidi politicians can commiserate with Netanyahu’s Trump woes. Netanyahu pulled away from the Democratic Party, tying his fate to the Republicans, just as the chareidi parties in Israel have dropped the veneer of neutrality and become an integral part of the right-wing bloc.

The moment Trump became a problem, Netanyahu has no one in Washington to turn to, just as the chareidim can’t count on the left — they burned that bridge long ago.

That said, calling Trump fickle would be an easy answer to the questions raised by Israel’s sidelining last week. First and foremost, this is about Netanyahu, not Trump — or as they say in Israel, “rak Bibi (only Bibi).”

Bibi’s approach to Trump is reminiscent of Bibi’s relationship with the chareidim. Bibi’s famous procrastination, which saw the draft law getting pushed off time and time again, is also the culprit for Trump’s change of heart.

The impulsive Trump, who started off his second term with a demand that Hamas release all the hostages and with American approval for unleashing devastation on Gaza, watched as Netanyahu — just like during the assassination of Soleimani in 2020 — got cold feet and pulled back, going from a partial deal to low-intensity warfare. Anything besides resolving the issue, one way or the other.

Trump ended Biden’s arms embargo in the belief that that would put an end to the stagnation that prevented Israel from conquering a city and a half in one and a half years, as Biden officials put it contemptuously. Over the course of four months in which he enjoyed total backup from the administration, Netanyahu has dragged his feet, avoiding committal decisions on a raft of issues.

But unlike with the chareidim, in Trump’s case, it’s Netanyahu who needs to get in line, not the other way around. Saying that Trump threw Israel under the bus is only half the story. A more accurate metaphor is that Netanyahu refused to get on board, so Trump just ran him over.

Still, this gloomy prospect could change in a heartbeat. Chazal’s words about the One who sits on high, controlling the hearts of kings and ministers, has never been as topical as it has during the second Trump administration.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1062)