What effect will the rally have on the future of the legislation?

MK Boaz Bismuth, Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee chairman (Photo: Flash90)

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“Elevation of the spirit after moments of despair, excitement that brought tears — even from dry Ashkenazi eyes — when Rabbi Elbaz opened his mouth. But above all, there was the feeling that we are not alone, that we are part of a public of hundreds of thousands giving us their backing.” This was the sentiment expressed in conversations with yeshivah bochurim and avreichim who attended the protest rally on Thursday.

It was an event that combined tefillos and tears, and their impact should not be underestimated. The last time hundreds of thousands gathered to daven in the streets of Jerusalem — back in 5774 — it led to the toppling of the hostile Bennett-Lapid government.

On an emunah level, the rally achieved its goal and encouraged the tzibbur of lomdei Torah. On the public level, it felt like the ball was being moved from the political field to the communal one. Unlike the 2014 rally, when the chareidim were in the opposition, last week’s rally was a cry from within the coalition, after three years of a full right-wing government, whose election had led to hubris and euphoria.

But in this column, let’s focus on politics alone, where promises are meaningless and only results matter. The question of the day after the rally is not metaphorical but real, given that the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee was supposed to convene to discuss the proposed draft law on the day of the rally, last Thursday — a discussion that was postponed, and then postponed again.

No chareidi left Jerusalem that day without feeling the question: What effect will the rally have on the future of the legislation?

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“Get back to me with a clear answer, and then we’ll set the committee date,” Netanyahu told the charedim on Motzaei Shabbos, as he ordered the committee discussion postponed yet again.

Before, during, and after: After three consecutive postponements since the protest rally was announced, the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee discussion on the conscription law has now been deferred.

The first delay came from committee chairman Boaz Bismuth, who attributed it to his efforts to reduce friction with the committee’s legal adviser, Miri Frenkel-Shor, and to limit the objections she intended to present.

A week and a half after the first delay, it’s clear that the objective was not fully achieved vis-à-vis the committee’s legal adviser. At least this was the impression the chareidi MKs got, as they continue to maintain respect for the legal adviser — an inversion of the government’s usual campaign of disparagement against its legal advisers.

In the eyes of the chareidi members, this represents a compromise: The committee legal adviser will not submit a written list of objections, but when the law is eventually presented to the committee — if it indeed convenes after this wave of procrastination — she intends to articulate her objections orally. Not regarding the conscription quotas, which she considers too low, but regarding numerous other issues, some seemingly esoteric yet with substantial consequences, such as defining “who is chareidi.”

Here lies a question that could dramatically affect compliance with targets: How many years of yeshivah study are enough to define a bochur a “chareidi” when he becomes of draft age? The chareidim are unwilling to budge on this issue, while the legal advisor is standing firm on her stance.

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The second delay, on the eve of the Jerusalem rally, came directly from Netanyahu rather than via his committee chairman.

Officially, the reason was a desire to review the law’s clauses over the weekend. Everyone knew this was not the real reason; even an inveterate procrastinator like Netanyahu has previously been able to supply more plausible excuses.

Netanyahu’s supporters in the sector — mainly MKs — explained that Bibi feared that bringing the law to committee right before the rally would produce the opposite effect. A discussion under the heat of public attention could give rise to other obstacles within Likud ranks, after former chair Yuli Edelstein, recently removed from the committee, had been considered to be the last barrier to the law’s advancement.

Further down the Likud list, there are additional MKs — mainly kippah serugah wearers — whom Netanyahu sees as potential obstacles. As their eyes turn to the Likud primaries ahead of the coming elections, the prime minister’s influence gradually diminishes.

Skeptics of Netanyahu’s promises, primarily Agudas Yisrael members who have lost faith in the prime minister, see this as just another instance of his artistry in procrastination. For them, it is further proof that Netanyahu has no intention of passing the law before the elections, to avoid electoral backlash.

To reinforce the skeptics’ argument, Netanyahu clarified on Motzaei Shabbos that the third delay within a single week would occur, instructing Chairman Bismuth not to bring the law to a vote on Monday.

I asked one chareidi MK if this should be seen as a presumption of deliberate  evasion, and he surprised me: “This time — and only this time — you can’t blame Netanyahu,” he said. “He asked us in advance whether we are willing to move forward with the draft text, to know before he exerts his full influence with the Likud MKs whether the chareidim will raise their hands in support.”

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The bottom line: The rally was not just a show of prayer and protest; it was the only practical action left to the chareidim. Beyond that, the legislative process is stalled, both legally and politically. Even the softened draft that Bismuth can offer meets a cold shoulder — from both legal advice and the chareidim side.

Agudas Yisrael, led by Gur Hasidim, outright rejects any legislation, while in Shas, Degel HaTorah, and some in the Agudah faction, there is still no clear answer to the question: Does the leaked law meet their standards enough to allow them to lift their hand in the plenum and vote in favor?

And in the middle is Netanyahu, who may be called the master of procrastination. And in the week after the rally as well, all we are left with is the power of prayer.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1085)