Veteran envoy Gilad Erdan on Bibi's D.C. trip

Photo: Flash90

“WE work out 95% of the details in advance — it’s the remaining 5% that makes the visit a win or a loss.”

I heard that insight on the return flight from one of Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s Washington visits (a win) during President Donald Trump’s first term. I’ve been there for Netanyahu’s meetings with three different US presidents, two of them Democrats — but it was only in the presence of the Republican president seen as his greatest ally that the prime minister’s body language showed genuine fear. Trump’s warm embrace could turn into a backbreaking bear hug at any moment.

On the eve of Netanyahu’s flight to Washington for Trump’s first visit by a foreign leader in his second term, I sat down with Gilad Erdan, who accompanied Netanyahu on past trips and has served as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations and Washington.

You recently completed your term as Israel’s ambassador to the United Nations, during part of which you served concurrently as the ambassador to Washington. You’re someone who led Israel’s diplomatic corps while staying  connected to Israeli politics. What does Netanyahu need to do to return from Washington with the best possible result and avoid splintering his coalition?

“The best result would be to agree with Trump on how to complete the deal to bring back our kidnapped brothers and sisters, while reaching an understanding on the circumstances under which America will back us to resume the war until Hamas is destroyed.”

You’re talking about resuming the war as a certainty. Don’t you think Hamas will want a pause of two to three years to rebuild itself? What interest does it have in blowing up the deal?

“There’s no scenario in which not a single rocket is fired from the Gaza Strip, whether by Hamas, Islamic Jihad, or rogue elements. There’s no scenario in which there isn’t a terrorist who takes action that would justify the resumption of the war. So grounds will certainly exist, and perhaps a precondition for the resumption of the fighting is President Trump’s initiative, something for which many of us have hoped for many years — to encourage [Arab] emigration from the Gaza Strip.”

Rehavam Ze’evi Hy”d would be proud. But we’ve all seen the reactions, and it’s not really realistic...

“It’s absolutely realistic. You have to understand that we’re not talking about a purely voluntary process. For the idea to have a chance, we need an unconditional commitment by Trump not to rebuild the Strip as long as Hamas remains there. Because the moment you let them rebuild, you’re giving your enemies hope, and there’s no reason for anyone to leave as long as they see that the international community or Israel is sending in hundreds of trucks of supplies for rebuilding the Strip. That would doom us, and them, to many more years of bloodshed.”

You’re basically saying that while we’ve relinquished the card of allowing civilians to return to the north of the Strip, we have to leverage Gaza’s rehabilitation to our advantage. I want to ask you as someone who’s prepared Israeli prime ministers for meetings with American presidents: In this term, we’ve seen a new version of Trump, one who arrived in office with hundreds of executive orders ready to be signed and all his appointments lined up. But the idea of emigration seems completely spontaneous. Because you hear el-Sisi say that he hasn’t discussed it with Trump, the King of Jordan apparently wasn’t consulted either, the president of Albania rejected any idea of accepting migrants from Gaza. Is this a serious proposal? Or is it an off-the-cuff remark of the kind we remember from Trump’s first term?

“My answer, and I know what I’m talking about, is that it wasn’t an off-the-cuff remark. Many of Trump’s associates, some of them in key positions, recognize what elements in the Israeli establishment sadly don’t: that the people of Gaza are our enemy. It’s not just Hamas, it’s the entire population. There’s not a single righteous person in Sedom — we didn’t see one protest.

“In Iran, citizens risk their lives to protest against the regime. Same is true in Russia. There are demonstrations in every dictatorship. Only in Gaza did we see mass celebration of the kidnappings, the massacres, and the other atrocities, without a single voice of protest. Maybe the leaders are afraid about the reaction of the Arab world, but when the president of the United States makes it clear that this is his position, the penny will drop.”

How exactly can that happen? I ask you, as Israel’s recent ambassador to UN, do you really see the international community letting that happen?

“Would anyone have believed three, four, or five years ago that UNRWA would be expelled in disgrace after we proved what we’d argued for years — that it supports terrorism and is perpetuating the conflict? Did John Kerry, Obama’s secretary of state, ever imagine that, contrary to everything he said, Arab leaders in the Emirates, Bahrain, and Morrocco would make peace with Israel without a resolution of the Palestinian issue, and continue cooperating with us through a war in Gaza that saw thousands of Palestinians killed by the IDF? The answer is no, of course not.

“Ideas take time to mature. Many, even in the Muslim world, now understand that Hamas is an enemy of moderate Arab regimes such as the Emirates and Saudi Arabia. And I’m sure that privately, they’ll be happy to see this happening, because neither we nor they have any ideas for replacing Hamas in Gaza. The Palestinian Authority is not only a sponsor of terrorism but utterly ineffectual.”

You dismiss the idea of PA control, but we’re hearing talk from Trump envoy Steve Witkoff, of all people, about returning the PA to Gaza, something Netanyahu has categorically rejected. Are we on a collision course with Trump on this issue, especially given that Israel isn’t offering any alternative?

“Look, I don’t currently represent the Israeli government. It’s up to ministers to find solutions. But I can answer you now without the shackles of diplomacy. If it were up to me, I would impose military rule in Gaza. Yes, it’s tough, and there will be a price, but there’s no other element to replace Hamas, including in the role of distributing humanitarian aid. And no Muslim Arab entity will take the reins because they’d be seen as traitors, and that includes the PA apparatuses. Hamas would massacre them, just as they did in 2007, when they seized control of the strip and threw PA officials from the rooftops. Even last year, with a large IDF presence in Gaza, an attempt was made to bring in PA representatives, and they fled within a day.”

You surely wish you could serve in the UN now, working alongside an American ambassador whose position on Israel aligns with the national camp’s. How will the change of administrations affect decisions by the UN and other bodies such as the ICC?

“Unfortunately, we won’t see a dramatic change, because the difference will be one of tone, not of results. Numerically, it isn’t possible to get anything through the UN. The UN is a lost cause — almost a third of countries are Muslim, half the countries are non-democratic, so there will always be a majority for anti-Israeli resolutions.”

We’ve seen Trump willing to use America’s financial influence. Maybe if the US cuts funding to the UN, we’ll be able to see results there?

“You took the words out of my mouth. There’s a historic opportunity here, and I hope that the prime minister will bring it up with President Trump. After World War I, the world dissolved the League of Nations because it was clear to everyone that it couldn’t produce results, and the United Nations was founded to replace it. Today, the United Nations is like the League of Nations back then. Its political composition has turned it into a morally rotten body in which Iran can win elections and dictators can sit on the Human Rights Council.”

And you see Trump as someone who would go out of his way to promote human rights?

“Trump is someone who can and should be persuaded that he can save almost $20 billion every year in spending on the UN. You saw that one of the first executive orders he signed was the one rightly pulling the US from the World Health Organization, a UN body. If Netanyahu makes a good case, and Trump’s UN ambassador shows him how the Security Council operates, how it’s terminally paralyzed by the divide between Russia and China on one side and the US on the other, how the UN lacks the power to prevent wars or protect human rights in Iran or anywhere else, the question will be why the US, the UN’s single biggest funder, wastes $20 billion a year when it could use that money to strengthen its alliances with dozens of countries across the world.”

A prime minister visiting Washington as the president’s first guest has a long shopping list and a small basket. With all our existential needs, you want Bibi to focus on the UN?

“I very much hope that’s one of the issues the prime minister raises, because we’re not just fighting a physical war. This is a war for the hearts and minds of the next generation of leaders, who will be running the world in 15 years. Look at what’s happening on university campuses — the support for Hamas and the naked hatred. This is all based on our delegitimization by the UN, which calls for a ceasefire every day instead of calling for the destruction of Hamas, and which portrays us as child killers and hospital bombers. It’s about time we understood that the military front isn’t the only front, and we need to fight the hasbarah battle as well. Only success on both fronts will lead to a real victory.”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1048)