Trump Deal of the Century: The Best Case Scenario

• Netanyahu returns to Israel, calls a Cabinet meeting for Sunday, where the Cabinet votes to apply Israeli sovereignty to the 30% of Judea and Samaria included in the Trump Plan.
• The Jordan River becomes Israel’s de facto eastern border and almost all Israeli communities settled since 1967 become lawful parts of the state of Israel.
• Blue and White overcomes its worst political instincts and gets behind the plan in a show of national unity, leading to formation of a national unity government between Likud and Blue and White after the March 2 election
• Moderate Arab States such as Oman, Bahrain and the Emirates support it, with tacit support from Saudi Arabia and Egypt while Jordan feigns anger
• The Palestinian Authority and Hamas reject it outright, Israeli security forces keep demonstrations to a low burn and the clock starts ticking from now until the end of Trump’s second term for them to negotiate or risk losing any foothold in Israel.

Plan B: The Worst Case Scenario

• Netanyahu reverts to his overcautious self and takes only small, incremental steps, such as annexing Maale Adumim or other Jewish communities such as Gush Etzion, long inside a safe consensus.
• Jordan, the Palestinian Authority and Hamas resort to violent demonstrations and attempt terror attacks, prompting warnings from Israeli security authorities, scaring Israel into inaction.
• Blue and White smells Bibi’s political blood from the attorney general’s rush to file the indictments against Bibi when he was still overseas and insists they are the only party who can implement the deal and the media gets behind them, fomenting internal dissension.
• Radical Muslim states and entities such as Iran, Turkey and Hezbollah threaten and intimidate moderate Muslim nations into submission and even outright rejection of the plan.
• Europe, the UN and other rejectionist nations brand the plan as “apartheid,” further emboldening the PA and Hamas to stand firm, while the Trump administration loses interest as US elections approach and Israel is stuck in the throes of another five-year freeze on diplomacy and construction freeze.