Excitement sure can fizzle quickly

Is this the last time that Jack Ciattarelli brings his charm to Lakewood voters?

Leading up to 8 p.m. on Tuesday night in New Jersey, Jack Ciattarelli’s campaign had serious juice. The third-time candidate ran a high-energy campaign, appearing all over the state, all-day, every-day, to cheering crowds. Polls had him neck-and-neck with the Democratic candidate. As energized Lakewood voters — who turned out to vote in massive numbers as Trump tweeted about yeshivah students — reminded each other, polls always gift the Dem a few points above reality.

As I pulled into the Somerset County Marriott Hotel where Ciattarelli was holding his stylized “victory party” two miles from where he grew up, the juice was still there. Thousands of Jack for Governor signs covered the surrounding streets; hundreds of state police officers on foot, in cruisers, and on horseback patrolled the area, and the line of people waiting to get in stretched around the parking lot and back. A lively buzz rose from the crowd.

But by the time I was screened for entry, the buzz had died. The overall tone turned from hopeful to angry; boom to doom. Within minutes of polls closing, Democrat Mikie Sherrill took a commanding lead. It wasn’t just the numbers, she was outperforming Ciattarelli in counties he had to win and among the independent voters who were the key to his chances. Within half an hour, Decision Desk HQ called the race for Sherrill.

Across town, her campaign was already celebrating by the time I got into the packed ballroom, but Ciattarelli’s people hadn’t given up yet. Fox News refused to call the race for another hour or so, giving hope to the faithful inside.

Jack’s supporters were a crowd of colorful people. Overall-clad country types in MAGA hats and Trump pins stood near Gen Z elites. Venerable, grizzled holdovers from New Jersey’s ancient red glory days rubbed shoulders with young college and high school kids with gelled hair and big political dreams of their own. Garbed in a full-on Jack for Governor suit and tie, Jewish Jack fan Michael Shapiro wished me a zei gezunt. Quite a few yarmulkes and sheitlach mingled around the room, from Lakewood’s realpolitik fanatics to curious observers, and a few frum media representatives.

Everybody’s eyes were glued to their phones, where the numbers only got worse. Jack was never close. Disbelief turned to grief as the disappointed crowd wondered what had gone wrong… again.

People started leaving shortly after nine. Along a wall of cameras and press personnel, correspondents stood in front of their cameras, reporting live that there was no hope, and we’ll bring you the concession speech when it comes. But Ciattarelli is no quitter, and as the evening stretched on, I began to wonder how long we would have to wait.

As it turned out, not that long. By ten o’clock, with 60 percent of the vote counted, Jack made his appearance, in what is likely his final public moment before he disappears from the public eye in exchange for the Surf City beaches. He thanked his family and supporters, said some nice words about continuing the fight and having made a difference by running, and left everyone with the impression that he was tired and done.

So what went wrong? How did the candidate that got within 3 percent in 2021 lose by a whopping 15 percent, when he seemed to be polling and pulling much better than last time?

I caught up with Rabbi Avi Richler, Executive Director of Chabad of Gloucester County and head of Ciattarelli’s campaign for the Jewish community, in the hall.

“We did our job,” Rabbi Richler said. “Lakewood turned out in big numbers for Jack, logging about 40,000 votes — double the 2021 turnout.” Ciattarelli got 67 percent in Ocean County, more than 185,000 votes. “Jewish communities in North Jersey voted strong as well.”

Overall, a record turnout for an off-year election — thought to be one of the keys for a Ciattarelli win — was logged, with about 50 percent of registered voters, or around 3 million people, showing up. But independents and moderates went heavily for Sherrill, and he lost several key counties he had won in ’21.

“This was an anti-Trump vote, no doubt about it,” Rabbi Richler said. That opinion is wide shared by staffers I spoke to at the event. Dr. Ibrar Nadeem, Executive Director for Muslim Relations for Ciattarelli, agreed.

“Voters left Jack as a backlash against Trump,” he told me. “He tried to distance himself from Trump, but there wasn’t much he could do, safely. In the end, it sunk the campaign.”

Trump was careful in his campaigning for Ciattarelli, appearing only in virtu-rallies to supporters — and sending a slew of Truth Social messages to Lakewood kollel yungeleit to get out and vote.

Some placed blame specifically on the government shutdown, which tied for longest in US history on Election Day (the other was during Trump’s first term).

“This was the Democrats’ strategy in shutting the government down,” an analyst explained. “When things are going badly, the incumbent is always blamed, whether or not it is their fault. And that’s why they refused to negotiate until after the election. You’ll see, it will end quickly now,” he predicted.

Filing out of the ballroom, people still seemed shellshocked, and angry. “How did this happen?” a staffer with a Secret Service style earpiece demanded of Rabbi Richler. “Where are we moving to?” another asked petulantly.

“This is just a bad, bad night,” a bitter supporter said. The refrain is common across MAGA-land. Democrats swept the three major races in the country, in New York City, New Jersey, and Virginia, delivering a critical blow to Trump’s project 2026.

Battle lines have been drawn. Expect to see Team Trump ratchet the policy screws even harder now, racing to get more done before a potential loss of Congress next year, while striking out at the blue ripple. But emboldened Democrats are now ready to hit back. “This is not only how we stop Trump, it’s how we stop the next one,” Mamdani said in his victory speech. “So, Donald Trump, since I know you’re watching, I have four words for you: Turn the volume up.”

On Truth Social, the president responded with four ominous words of his own:

“And so it begins.”