There are some things that we learned last night that will have staying power

One year ago, Elon Musk looked like the most important outside influence in American politics, Zohran Mamdani was a little-known assemblyman, and the Democratic Party was written off for dead. Today? Musk’s voice didn’t impact the 2025 elections, Mamdani is now Mayor-elect of New York City, and a resurgent Democratic party swept almost every major election last night.

I frequently remind readers that a week is a lifetime in politics, and a year is a millennium, and last night’s elections were no different. Things change so quickly in politics. What we know now will change rapidly within a week. But there are some things that we learned last night that will have staying power. Things that occurred which will domino and shape politics immediately, in next year’s midterms and even the next presidential election.

Here are 5 takeaways:

1 Economy, Stupid

Both Democratic candidates won their respective gubernatorial races in New Jersey (Sherril) and Virginia (Spanberger). These states have long been bellwethers. There is a trend going back decades, whereby these two states elect the governor of the party opposing the president, but also signal to us where the opposition party’s chances are in the upcoming midterms. Their victories don’t just spell trouble for the Republican party, they also are a signal of two trends. The first is the reality that the economy is a major driver of voters.  Multiple exit polls find that the economy is a top issue for voters. Last year, this economic discontent worked in the Republican party’s favor and this year it seems to have swung back to hurt them. The second trend is that when Trump isn’t on the ballot it hurts the Republican party. Remember, they suffered in the 2018 midterms and underperformed in the 2022 midterms – both of which had no Trump on the ballot. In 2025 Trump wasn’t on the ballot, and neither will he be in 2026. This is a trend that is scaring Republicans and exciting Democrats.

2 Socialism of Fools?

Mamdani is the most prominent Democratic Socialist to ever be elected. Most Democrats coalesced around him and endorsed him. This is a signal that the socialists are now a mainstay of the Democratic party.  The problem is that socialism is a radical political movement in America, and outside of certain urban areas it is not a winning formula for electoral success. The Democratic party and the socialist movement will divide and engage in nasty primaries to hash out their ideological differences. Meanwhile, the Republican party will immediately use Mamdani and his governance of New York City as the poster child of everything that is wrong with the Democratic party. Republicans will consistently and repeatedly force the Democratic party to embrace or denounce Mamdani’s policies.

3 Newsom Rises

Proposition 50, the effort to add five Democrat seats to Congress through redistricting, passed in California. This is a big victory for Gavin Newsom and will cement him as a major presidential frontrunner for 2028. Democratic voters are desperately seeking anyone who can fight and what better way to do so than delivering more Democratic seats to the House of Representatives? In addition to elevating Newsom’s profile, this is also going to elevate redistricting as a political weapon before 2026. A redistricting fight that Texas started to benefit Republicans has now been countered by California. Will it end? Which state moves next? These questions will only ramp up as both parties vie for power not just through the ballot box but by redrawing congress as we know it.

4 Penn State, 2028

Pennsylvania continues to be the epicenter for presidential politics, and an election last night proved that. The state Supreme Court was up for election last night and it was a major battle royale between the Democratic party that wanted to keep its majority versus the Republican party seeking to defeat multiple incumbent justices. This is a battle for 2028, when these same justices can be involved in critical election lawsuits, and it goes even further to the 2030 Pennsylvania redistricting. Ultimately, the Democratic party prevailed and defeated the Republican challenge, but its telling both how critical Pennsylvania is, and the now beyond-early jockeying that both parties are doing to gain any possible advantage in the next presidential race.

5 Jewish Surge

There’s no denying that something big is happening with Jewish voters across America. The community didn’t just vote last night — it shattered voting records. My shul, kids’ yeshivah, and 1,000 WhatsApp chats all urged, reminded, and pushed people to vote. By my estimate, over 25,000 Jewish voters registered these past few months in NYC and another 10,000 did so in New Jersey. Turnout broke records. As of this writing, the Lakewood turnout alone surpassed their 2024 presidential election turnout. That is simply unheard of. An off-year election is not supposed to have more votes than a presidential year. The community has learned to vote, and they are doing it consistently and methodically. What’s also fascinating is that it’s not just “in-town”; we are now seeing serious turnout across the country. In a less-covered race in Miami Beach, the community was critical in turnout for a local mayoral race. I believe that all of this is about a bigger realization that the community has come to. Our goal isn’t just about wins and losses, it’s to vote because when we vote the politicians take note.  They track who shows up and who doesn’t. That was realized in this election at the highest echelons of power. The President of the United States put out two separate statements about Lakewood voting. Politicians see our efforts and are taking note. Let’s remain consistent and continue to practice this critical civic habit.