Netanyahu can't wait for Trump's inauguration — but he has to get through the next two months

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Psagot Winery, based in the settlement of Psagot north of Jerusalem, is already preparing for the 47th president’s inauguration in a little over two months. A 2020 visit to the winery by then-secretary of state Mike Pompeo prompted the winery to introduce a “Pompeo” wine, in a vivid illustration of the first Trump administration’s relationship with the Israeli right. Earlier, following the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem, the winery had launched a special “Trump” edition. Exported to the US, the two labels sold like hotcakes, immediately becoming collectors’ items.

In a twist of fate, the winery got Trump’s opponent Kamala Harris in trouble during this year’s campaign cycle, as she was photographed at a dinner table with bottles from the Israeli vintner. There was never going to be a Psagot “Kamala” wine, even if she’d won. A vinegar, though, might have been on the table.

But Trump won big, and celebrations on the Israeli right are in full swing. A new “President Trump” special edition has already been launched ahead of the inauguration, and wine connoisseurs might appreciate the winery’s dilemma: Should the new label be a “Sinai” blend, as during the first administration? Or should “President Trump” be upgraded to the winery’s finer “Edom” blend?

This anecdote isn’t trivia for wine connoisseurs, but serves as a parable for the conundrum facing Israeli decision makers. Which Trump will we get? Now that he doesn’t have to worry about reelection, will the president’s second administration be as pro-Israeli as before, or even more so? Or will he push for a peace settlement even at the expense of Israel’s security interests?

The first indication will come even before the inauguration, in the form of the figures Trump appoints to his next administration. As far as Pompeo is concerned, the answer came early this week, with Trump’s announcement on Truth Social that two stars of his first term, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and UN ambassador Nikki Haley, won’t receive roles in his next administration.

Pompeo and Haley were two of Israel’s staunchest allies in the first Trump administration. Mike Pompeo came out publicly in Israel’s defense even during the most difficult moments of the Biden administration — just last September he was urging Israel’s leadership to take action on Iran’s nuclear program. And Haley’s term as UN ambassador is remembered in Israel as a “golden age” in a notoriously hostile organization. If there was anyone Netanyahu — and Israel’s hard right — hoped to see shuttling back and forth between Washington and Jerusalem and defending Israel in international corridors, it was Mike Pompeo and Nikki Haley.

But anyone quick to draw negative conclusions is advised to be patient. Israel had nothing to do with the decision. Ahead of his second term, Trump is determined to surround himself with people whose loyalty is unquestioned, and he sees the past four years — especially the period immediately following his loss — as a loyalty test. No one who failed it will return to the president’s circle after the greatest comeback in American history.

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It’s hardly necessary to point out how much Netanyahu was looking forward to Trump’s election. Now, the timetable falls into two parts: the months remaining until Trump’s inauguration in January 2025, and after the administration takes office.

“You made a comeback too,” the Donald told Bibi in their first phone conversation after the election. “You turned Israel from a loser to a winner.”

The secret behind Netanyahu’s comebacks is his ability to focus on the immediate short term, and Bibi’s outlook for the next two months is grim. He learned firsthand what a vengeful Democratic administration can do from President Obama in 2016, after Hillary Clinton lost to Trump.

“I was there in 2016 after Hillary Clinton lost the election,” Danny Danon, Israel’s ambassador to the UN then and now, reminded me. “Obama withheld America’s veto on an anti-Israel resolution, in what was one of our darkest hours. At one point, we tried to get help from Russian president Vladimir Putin, which obviously is no longer relevant. What I learned from that is that we have to be doubly vigilant in this window. I hope we don’t reach a situation where America withholds its veto, but we need to be ready for a sensitive period over the next few months.”

It’s not just in the UN that Israel could suffer irreversible setbacks, given the reality that while the US can prevent resolutions from passing thanks to its veto power, it can’t overturn them without a majority. If an anti-Israel resolution makes it through the Security Council in the next few months, the Trump administration won’t be able to roll it back.

Israel faces a difficult period in other international organizations as well. The replacement of retiring ICC judge Julia Motoc by Judge Beti Hohler last week will enable the court to resume deliberations on ICC prosecutor Karim Khan’s request for arrest warrants against Israeli and Hamas leaders. However, things have changed since Khan filed the indictments last summer. The Hamas leaders Khan named, including Sinwar, are no longer among us, and the Israeli defense minister is also no longer at the decision-making table, having been fired on Tuesday evening last week (Election Night in the US) in a night of “total victory” for Netanyahu. The only figure named in the indictments who’s still on the scene is Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu.

On this front, the mere prospect of Trump’s return might be enough deterrence. The Biden administration hasn’t taken radical measures such as the Trump administration threatened ICC judges with, such as sanctions and travel bans, should they harm Israel. One word from Trump, and the judges will scatter like north Gaza civilians at an IDF evacuation order. Another development that could undermine Khan’s case is the misconduct allegations that led to an investigation on him being opened a few weeks ago. Israel hopes that the Trump era will turn many more of Israel’s hunters into the hunted.

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Netanyahu struggled to conceal his hopes in closed forums. In a number of security meetings before the election, he voiced his assessment that the election of Trump, who shares his view of the Iran threat, would enable Israel to pursue the conflict with Iran far more vigorously.

Time, and missiles, will tell. In the window before the inauguration, Iran might still decide to retaliate for the recent Israeli strikes. At the same time, a political settlement in the north is also a distinct possibility, perhaps through rare cooperation between the outgoing and incoming administrations.

Trump, who wants to enter office with as few headaches as possible, signaled the Biden administration that he supports special envoy Amos Hochstein’s efforts to negotiate a cease-fire in the north, as discussed in these pages last week. If an arrangement is ultimately reached with agreement between Trump and the outgoing Biden administration, it will be an unexpected start to his second term.

Much has yet to be said about the period after the inauguration. It’s not necessarily clear that the isolationist figure the Ukrainians are so worried about will allow Netanyahu to strike in Iran at the risk of a regional escalation, but Bibi believes he’ll have strong backing for exerting pressure on Iran as well as significant developments in the Saudi theater. In any event, the arms shipments delays — such as the shipment of Caterpillar D9s to Israel delayed last week, thanks to Democratic criticism of the ruin in Gaza — will be a thing of the past.

Trump is revving up for office with a string of new appointments, but Netanyahu is also reshuffling his team in preparation for the new administration. The first step was the appointment of Dr. Yechiel Leiter as Israel’s ambassador to Washington. Leiter is Netanyahu’s former chief of staff, a resident of the settlement of Eli, who lost his son Moshe in Gaza and joined Netanyahu on his latest speech to Congress. Born and raised in Pennsylvania, Leiter is a Republican at heart who will feel at home in the incoming administration’s halls.

It almost seems like Israel’s prime minister is looking forward to the inauguration more than the president-elect.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1036)