Photos: AFP/IMAGEBANK

W

hile Israel continues to inflict heavy blows on Iranian assets in Syria, Tehran’s response has so far been meek.

It is likely that the Iranian leadership is weighing the benefits of an all-out attack on Israel versus progress it could make with its European partners on salvaging what’s left of the JCPOA, the Iran nuclear agreement. At the same time, a political struggle between Iranian president Hassan Rouhani and Revolutionary Guards commander General Qasem Suleimani continues to boil as Iran’s economy slumps and international businesses flee from the local market.

Suleimani, who directs Iran’s military operations in Syria, enjoys celebrity status in Iran, where a recent poll reported that he’s the most popular figure in the country. His operations in Syria were part of a long-term strategy, earning him the backing of Iran’s spiritual leader Ali Khamenei. The Revolutionary Guards presently receive 40% of Iran’s defense budget, while Iran has invested close to $1 billion annually in military aid to its Middle Eastern “partners”: Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Assad regime in Syria, the Houthi rebels in Yemen, and to a lesser extent, Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza.

The recent Israeli strikes haven’t put a stop to Iran’s presence in Syria, though they have forced the Iranians to rethink their strategy.

The IDF speculates that the American withdrawal from the nuclear deal could cause Iran, for the first time, to make far-reaching compromises in return for a new, modified agreement. Moreover, the strikes against Iranian military installations in Syria have the potential to convince Damascus, Moscow, and even Tehran of the need to restrain Suleimani, in an effort to preserve Assad’s achievements in the Syrian civil war.

And make no mistake: Tehran can’t help but notice Moscow’s recent change in tone regarding its strategic interests in Syria. Russian president Vladimir Putin recently said that “foreign armed forces will start leaving Syrian territory” soon, a statement that could refer to Tehran. The Iranian leadership may have also taken note of the warm welcome extended to Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu in Moscow on the eve of the latest major Israeli attack in Syria earlier this month, as well as the surprising announcement by Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ryabkov, that Iran must offer concessions to save the nuclear deal.

Iran is likely listening closely. (Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 711)