Twenty-one months of bruising negotiations led by British prime minister Theresa May achieved the impossible: a Brexit deal that has united both Remainers and Leavers in opposition. Both agree that this is the worst-of-all-worlds deal, with Britain still subject to many European Union laws, and no ability to shape them from within.
Against this backdrop, high drama played out last week in Westminster, as May pulled Parliament’s vote on the deal at the last minute, recognizing that many MPs from her own Conservative Party would vote against. The so-called “Irish backstop” is the greatest obstacle to an agreement. No one wants to draw a formal border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, yet if no deal is reached by the end of the transition period in December 2020, Northern Ireland would remain in the EUs tariff regime while the rest of the UK Brexited — effectively disuniting the United Kingdom.
After May pulled the vote, opponents tried to unseat her by calling for a vote of confidence in her government. Though she won that vote 200-117, the tally confirmed that more than a third of her own MPs are implacably opposed to the current deal. In desperation, May then headed across the Channel on a whistle-stop Europe tour to secure changes to the deal that would ensure its passage through Parliament. She came back empty-handed, her Brexit plan seemingly dead in the water.
Having hit an impasse, with neither the EU nor Parliament yielding, only one thing is now certain. Brexit is just over 100 days away, and almost any scenario is possible for getting there. Here, though, are the most likely routes the Brexit juggernaut will take.