I’m a political veteran, and I have never seen a month like the Trump campaign just went through

Photo: AP Images

“It’s bad. Don’t let anyone tell you otherwise.”

This remark stood out. I spoke with several Republican strategists, donors, and activists this week. I had to go to the source. I’m a political veteran, and I have never seen a month like the Trump campaign just went through.

I was bewildered by the change in forecast. Conventional wisdom of a red wave had been completely abated, and now a blue wave was anticipated. Readers have been asking me nonstop about it, and I wanted answers to their questions. Why had the campaign lost momentum? Would Trump recover? What would it portend for the Republicans’ November chances?

Here’s what I learned.

Free Fall

A month ago, a CBS News poll had Trump ahead of Biden by five points. This reflected the public’s concerns about Biden’s age and the rosy view of Trump after the assassination attempt. But an Emerson College poll last week had Harris leading Trump by four points. How can this be explained?

Again and again I heard, “We dropped the ball.” Many identified the J.D. Vance pick as the moment when momentum shifted. Vance was a popular pick among the conservative base, but it’s hard to see how it moves the needle in critical swing states.

Republicans are split on what happened next. Some say the Trump campaign truly believed Biden was going to run and victory was assured over the next 100 days. Others say the Trump campaign believed there was a chance the Democrats would try to replace Biden, but it would lead to a contentious divided convention. All agree that neither scenario accounted for a serious Harris candidacy. Once that materialized, no one could imagine how fast Harris would wrap up the nomination and build a campaign.

Then Trump’s campaign lost its footing entirely and began to fall over the next 30 days.

The Media Honeymoon

Kamala Harris may now be enjoying the “longest honeymoon” in political history. She wasn’t just coronated by her party; she was elevated by the media from being a candidate who elicited skepticism to becoming the savior of the Democratic Party.

In June, this column discussed the clamor in the Democratic Party to replace not Biden, but Harris. Her net disapproval rating then was -52 percent. Harris was the face of uncontrolled immigration, an unpopular issue with the electorate. On a host of other Biden accomplishments she had not benefited from being front and center. Now, she receives laudatory coverage without having to face the press corp. She graces the cover of Time magazine without even granting them an interview.

Voices from the GOP were united in feeling that the media honeymoon will just keep going. The Tim Walz VP pick was cited as a particular source of annoyance, given how much positive press it received compared to the ridicule leveled at Vance.

But there was another sentiment underpinning the Republican frustration with media coverage…

Where Is Trump’s Superpower?

“Nobody is better at getting earned media than Donald Trump,” one insider pointed out to me.

It was an astute observation. Republicans can complain all they want about the media coverage, but it’s not news to anyone that the media tilts left. What is news is that over the last month, Trump has been unable to break through.

Trump has always been able to send a sensational tweet or make a disruptive statement that breaks through all the media cycles to recapture public attention. Except now it isn’t working. Trump has tried this a few times and it’s seemed to fall flat. The first was his appearance at the National Association of Black Journalists. Instead of focusing attention on him or his message, his remarks were widely condemned. When he appeared with Elon Musk on X, there was a delay due to technical issues, but also his interview was deemed meandering and off message.

One pointed criticism I heard was that despite Trump’s ability to earn media, he has spent the last month reverting to the tried-and-true rallies with his base. What concerns so many in his party is that the rally attendees are already baked into the November numbers; he needs to unleash his earned media talents on undecided voters to make up lost ground.

But despite the free fall and the muted summer for Trump’s political gifts, there remains hope for these Republican voices.

The Turnaround

“Although there is massive worry, the polls tell another story,” I was told.

One strategist argued to me that in all the swing states, the polls are all still close and Harris’s lead is well within the margin of error. The theory here is that despite the media’s love affair and what nearly every Republican would admit has been an incredible campaign thus far by Harris, her polling has peaked. Even after her terrific month, and a terrible month for Trump, he is still neck-and-neck with Harris with a lot of time left on the clock.

When I looked at some swing state polls, I understood the argument. Cook Political Report has Harris up by only two points in Arizona; a Quinnipiac poll has Harris up by only three points in Pennsylvania. Many other swing state polls had similar outlooks. This GOP argument also rests on another assumption; after the Democratic National Convention, the media honeymoon will be over, and the polling and race will swing back to Trump.

But despite that glimmer of hope for Republicans, there is still a looming question.

Will Trump Be Trump?

Even this hopeful outlook could cut two ways. Will Trump recapture his 2016 magic and motivate new voters to come to the polls? Or will we all see more of what we’ve seen this past month — a directionless Trump who can’t seem to make a strong case against Harris that sticks?

Trump is never going to truly listen to his donors and strategists but instead will do what he instinctively feels is best. His instincts this past month were bad. If that continues, the campaign will conclude with a Harris victory. But if he can regain the magic that has made him a formidable force in politics for close to a decade, he can win.

Nobody I spoke to could predict which Trump they would see over the next three months.

What they could all agree on is that there is panic within the Trump campaign, a growing sense they are losing, and a sense of urgency about turning things around.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1025)