Israel should celebrate if Trump is sincere about his statement to the White House press corps

W

ith President Donald Trump exercising his considerable power to pressure both allies and adversaries, Israel should celebrate if he is sincere about his statement to the White House press corps that Egypt and Jordan must accept refugees from Gaza.

This announcement struck Israel’s closest neighbors with the impact of the 2,000-pound bombs that Trump supplied to Israel on the same day. At press time, the foreign ministries of Egypt and Jordan issued statements rejecting Trump’s idea. This week, pay close attention to whether newly confirmed members of Trump’s cabinet or prominent foreign policy advisors convey insights that offer more clarity on his foreign policy.

Regardless, now that the cat is out of the bag, Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu should prioritize this issue during his meeting with Trump in Washington, possibly as soon as next week. If Bibi is at his best, he should suggest that Trump expand his idea to include Judea and Samaria, allowing Israel to ensure real security for the nearly 530,000 Jews living there and dismantle the terrorist cells and infrastructure that the Palestinian Authority has built since 1994 under the misguided and reckless Oslo Accords.

Since Israel captured Judea, Samaria, and Gaza during the 1967 Six Day War, the international community has consistently and unfairly pressured Israel to establish a Palestinian state for the Arab population that came under its control. No one ever pressured Jordan or Egypt to do the same during their governance of those territories from 1948 to 1967. Trump has ambitious plans for a new, more secure, and prosperous Middle East. If part of that involves encouraging Israel’s Arab neighbors to take responsibility for the situation they helped create through their hostility toward Israel, this could mark a game-changing moment.

The first Trump administration, led by Jared Kushner and Jason Greenblatt, briefly considered the option of “Jordan is Palestine” but abandoned it following strong objections from Jordan and a lack of support from the broader Arab world. Jordan’s Hashemite kingdom already hosts a significant Palestinian majority. An additional influx of Palestinians could threaten King Abdullah’s throne and further destabilize the region.

However, anyone seeking to bring genuine peace to the Middle East must consider how Palestinian claims over Judea, Samaria, and Gaza destabilize Israel, America’s strongest ally. Trump’s new UN ambassador, Elise Stefanik, responded with a one-word answer — “Yes” — to a visibly frustrated Senator Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) during her Senate confirmation hearing when he asked if she still believed Israel has a biblical claim to all of Judea and Samaria. Incoming ambassador Mike Huckabee has expressed a similar perspective for decades.

The Trump administration has considerable leverage over Egypt to oblige Cairo to take responsibility for the plight of Gaza’s Arabs rather than use it as a wedge against Israel.

Restoring Egypt’s Willpower

Since the Camp David Peace Treaty took effect in 1979, the United States has provided over $50 billion in military aid and $30 billion in economic assistance to Egypt. However, Egypt’s economy is plagued by chronic high inflation, a plummeting currency, and sluggish growth. Thus, Egypt needs US aid far more than Israel does.

On his first day in office, Trump signed an executive order calling for a 90-day pause in all US foreign aid to assess whether it aligns with American interests. This pause does not apply to Israel or Egypt, but the head of a prominent Washington-based think tank argues that Congress should review aid to Egypt due to violations of the Camp David Accords.

Jonathan Schanzer, senior vice president of research at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), observed that the smuggling tunnels into Gaza from the Sinai Peninsula — land that Israel returned to Egypt at Camp David — function as a military and economic supply line for Hamas.

The Philadelphi Corridor marks the border between Sinai and Gaza. Following the IDF’s summer invasion of Rafah, soldiers uncovered multiple tunnels and access points used by Hamas, some visible from Egyptian guard towers. According to foreign press reports, one ten-foot-high tunnel may have provided a direct route from flights taking off from Sinai to an Egyptian airstrip on their side of the Rafah border, facilitating the direct supply of weapons to Hamas.

“While it could be argued that Egypt lacks the capacity to address this issue, it is equally plausible that it lacks the will,” Schanzer stated.

These problems could constitute violations of Article III, subsection two, of the Camp David Agreement, which requires both Israel and Egypt “to ensure that acts or threats of belligerency, hostility, or violence do not originate from and are not committed from within its territory.”

“Nobody wants this important peace to unravel,” Schanzer writes. “But that doesn’t mean we should ignore the problem. The US Congress should consider conditioning aid until Egypt upholds its obligations.”

Bibi’s Challenge

Schanzer is equally perplexed that Israel has never raised the alarm about this. “The Israeli government needs to explain itself,” he adds.

Here is where Netanyahu must step up to the plate. As prime minister, he has negotiated with five American presidents — Clinton, Bush, Obama, Trump, and Biden. He has had his ups and downs with all of them. He has no one but himself to blame if he can’t stand up for Israel’s interests. If Israel is genuinely battling for its existence, he needs to convey the gravity of Israel’s security challenges to Trump. In this vein, Bibi’s relationship with Trump is a significant asset, and he must appeal to Trump’s gut instincts without punching him in the gut.

Republicans control the Senate and the House. The leadership in both chambers is among Israel’s best friends, but they won’t step on Trump’s toes, so Bibi won’t be able to go over Trump’s head. Netanyahu will also have to engage with Democrats to address concerns about aid to Egypt and condition it on full compliance with Camp David.

And once Netanyahu returns, it’s time to establish the long-awaited commission that will examine Israel’s inability to foresee the October 7 attacks. More importantly, it should reassess the “conceptzia,” which has caused Israel to ignore a threat that it only started to regard as existential after October 7, following the brutal murders of over 1,200 Jews and the kidnapping of more than 250 hostages. That tragedy continues to haunt Israel today, and it led to the signing of a deal for their release that is certain to have security ramifications for years to come, as it calls for Israel to release hard-core terrorists who committed horrific attacks in mass casualty incidents.

Netanyahu’s reputation as Mr. Security is more than frayed at the edges. He must walk a fine line, confronting and addressing the security failures that have placed Israel’s security on a precipice. That’s going to be a tricky balancing act as he tries to project strength and conviction while dealing with a new Trump administration that will also be balancing America’s traditional support for Israel but not at the expense of its interests.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1047)