The US always expects Israel to consult with them before taking actions that impact US interests. The US should extend the same courtesy to Israel

T

he United States has given Israel $130 billion since 1948 to enhance its security, but this cannot erase the deep-seated insecurities Israelis feel about their relationship with Uncle Sam.

Insecurity rose after Trump negotiated a deal with the Houthis to halt attacks on US ships but not on Israel, cut his own deal with Hamas for the release of American hostage Edan Alexander, and omitted Israel from his itinerary during this week’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE.

Is Trump throwing Israel under the bus? By dealing directly with Hamas, flipping from bombing the Houthis to praising them, and flopping from threatening Iran to engaging with them, is he being impulsive or pragmatic?

These questions are hard to resolve because politicians consider various outcomes and may pivot based on results, lack thereof, or unexpected developments. It’s also perfectly normal for longstanding allies to have spirited disagreements, especially considering the complexities of the Middle East.

There is also plenty of spin and disinformation to weed out. Some of it originates from anonymous and unreliable sources in Qatar and Egypt. Other malevolent sources include the anyone-but-Bibi crowd in the Israeli media, which consistently fabricates crises between the US and Israel to tarnish Bibi’s reputation.

Nevertheless, the fears are palpable, and Israeli nerves are frayed after almost 600 days of incessant warfare on every border. That’s why it is more crucial than ever to determine if the fears of Trump turning on Israel, or spurning Bibi, are justified, or if there are grounds for cooler heads to prevail.

It’s Mainly a Business Trip

Israel is no slouch when it comes to trade with the US. Last year, total trade in goods between the US and Israel, which includes exports and imports, reached $37 billion, compared to just $25.9 billion with Saudi Arabia, according to the Office of the United States Trade Representative.

However, the potential is what matters. The Saudis, UAE, and Qatar collectively possess $4 trillion in sovereign wealth funds and are looking for investment opportunities. Saudi Arabia has pledged to invest $500 billion to the US over four years. In contrast, Israel has only $2.08 billion in its sovereign wealth fund, the Israeli Citizens Fund.

Trump intends to leverage Arab wealth for America’s benefit, bringing along major US investment bankers and CEOs of Fortune 500 corporations on this trip.

None of this should detract from America’s relationship with Israel. If trade between the US and the Arab world expands, it will create new regional business opportunities for Israeli firms.

Are the reports accurate that Trump has dropped his demand that Saudi Arabia normalize relations with Israel in exchange for US security guarantees and assistance in establishing a peaceful nuclear energy program? They might well be, but that could work to Israel’s advantage.

The US contingent will discuss these issues with the Saudis but won’t finalize anything on this trip. In the meantime, it’s a plus that Israel didn’t get suckered into agreeing to a path for Palestinian statehood in exchange for immediate Saudi recognition.

Understandably, Israel feels jilted, but negotiations between the US and Saudi Arabia will take months. This interval will allow Israel to conclude its war in Gaza, thus removing that obstacle to normalization and hopefully, obtain the release of the remaining hostages.

Making a Deal with Bullies

Israel has every right to be upset about Trump’s sudden reversal in announcing a ceasefire with the Houthis after two months of bombing their assets in Yemen.

Trump’s deal resembles an arrangement with a high school bully: You get him to stop bullying you while allowing him to bully everyone else. We should expect more from the leader of the free world, who wrote the book on the art of the deal. Trump also flattered the Houthis, saying they would “honor their word,” praising them for their “great capacity to withstand punishment.”

Well, that’s what jihadists embody. They will endure whatever you throw at them for as long as possible, knowing that eventually, you will tire of the battle and yield to them.

Israelis also felt jolted by the initial reaction of Mike Huckabee, America’s new ambassador to Israel, who remarked that the US didn’t need Israel’s permission to make a deal with the Houthis. He is right, of course, but reciprocity matters. The US always expects Israel to consult with them before taking actions that impact US interests. The US should extend the same courtesy to Israel. Huckabee smoothed ruffled feathers during a weekend media blitz to reassure Israel that Trump is still on their side. So did special envoy Steve Witkoff, who downplayed the differences between Netanyahu and Trump in an interview with Breitbart.

It’s important to remember that Netanyahu has had run-ins with every US president, including Clinton, Bush, Obama, and Biden, so whatever is happening now with Trump is nothing new to him. It’s just happening in the present and is likely to continue, as should be expected with two strong-willed, opinionated men.

Close to the Brink with Iran

When Netanyahu arrived in Washington last month to finalize plans for a military attack on Iran, Trump turned the tables with his decision to begin negotiations. This divergence between the two leaders is significant and perhaps irreconcilable. Even though the US appears to have toughened its stance, the daily and often contradictory statements from Trump, Witkoff, and Vice President J.D. Vance have only intensified anxiety in Israel.

Key Republican senators — Lindsey Graham, Tom Cotton, and Katie Britt introduced a resolution demanding that the outcome of US-Iranian negotiations “must include the complete dismantlement and destruction of Iran’s entire nuclear program.” Cotton and Graham also assert that Trump should submit any deal with Iran for Senate confirmation as a treaty, which will complicate matters by necessitating a two-thirds majority for passage.

What is Trump’s game here?

Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at The Center for Strategic and International Studies, notes that the looming threat of potential Israeli strikes against Iran strengthens America’s negotiating position. However, an actual strike on Iranian nuclear plants — especially if it also targets Iranian oil facilities — could lead to skyrocketing oil prices and ignite a full-scale regional war that Trump and his Arab allies want to avoid.

Alterman contends that Israel and the US are in close contact and assessing each other’s positions. “The Israelis are judging exactly where the Americans are. The Americans are trying to send the right signals to the Israelis. They [the US] are trying to send a signal to the Iranians that we’re trying to protect you from this, and that’s why you have to negotiate. It’s, frankly, a lot of brinkmanship. And it’s dangerous.”

 (Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1061)