Netanyahu’s governments go through dizzying highs and devastating lows. After a rough stretch, he’s on the upswing

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“We’re lucky the Houthi government isn’t as bloated as ours — otherwise it would have been less of an achievement,” a cabinet minister cynically observed to me, referring to last Thursday’s precise decapitation airstrike by the Israeli Air Force in Sanaa, Yemen.

The strike took out much of the Houthi leadership, including the prime minister, the director of the political bureau, the cabinet secretary, the prime minister’s chief of staff, and the ministers of foreign affairs, justice, economy and trade, agriculture, and public relations.

In all, only four members of the Houthi cabinet survived the strike. Then on Shabbos, another IAF airstrike in Gaza took out Hamas spokesman Abu Obeida.

“We’re waiting for the kill confirmation on the Abu Obeida strike, but I notice that Hamas hasn’t put out a statement yet,” Netanyahu quipped at the beginning of this week’s cabinet meeting. “Probably because there’s no one left to release it.”

There’s no middle ground in Netanyahu’s governments, which suffer from what one could call “Bibi-manic depression.” His terms in office have been characterized by dizzying highs as well as devastating lows.

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Against the backdrop of the military successes, Netanyahu arrived at the cabinet meeting Sunday evening with the wind at his back. Last week, he and some ministers had left the cabinet meeting early to celebrate the legalization of a number of settlement outposts and the approval of new construction plans in Judea and Samaria.

This week, there were no celebrations planned, and ministers discussed the plans for the conquest of Gaza City for hours on end. On the public front, the Israeli government continues to move forward with the plan — despite protests from the north wing of the 14th floor of the Kiryah, where the IDF chief of staff’s office is located, opposite the southern wing, which makes up the defense minister’s quarters.

But it’s not just on the military front that one senses a turning point. On the diplomatic front, one gets the impression that the momentum for the recognition of a Palestinian state has slowed. Instead of making do with the customary veto, the United States has revoked PA officials’ visas ahead of the UN General Assembly, and that, combined with massive US pressure on Western nations, is making itself felt.

Canada and Belgium have already pulled back from their comments about recognizing Palestine, and according to a senior Israeli political official, other Western nations are already trying to find a way to crawl back into President Trump’s good graces, dissolving the axis led by French president Emmanuel Macron.

After weeks of diplomatic disaster, which overshadowed Israel’s military achievements, Bibi feels that he’s managed to change the discourse and bring the focus back to the most important thing — and there’s no one better to explain it than he.

“In under two years, and coming from our lowest point, we’ve changed the map of the region,” he summarized this week. “We’ve erased the leadership of Hamas and Hezbollah; the leadership of the Iranian army, along with the key elements of the nuclear program; the Syrian [Assad] regime, which collapsed like a house of cards; and last week, the Houthi government as well. In effect, we’ve eradicated everyone who blustered about eradicating us.”

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Like a Wall Street index, you can plot Israel’s fluctuating fortunes on a simple chart: If Israel is begging Hamas for a deal, that means the terror group’s stock is rising. Conversely, if Hamas is pursuing the Israelis, that’s a clear sign that Israel is ascendant.

The one who pushed for multi-phase hostage deals from the morning of October 8, 2023, when Joe Biden was still in office, was Prime Minister Netanyahu, and he would go on to rebuff Trump’s proposal to rain down destruction on Gaza unless all the hostages were returned.

At the time, Netanyahu urgently dispatched his point man on Washington, Strategic Affairs Minister Ron Dermer, to a meeting with Steve Witkoff, the president’s lead negotiator. Incidentally, Dermer has recently announced his intention to step down in four months — though Netanyahu’s inner circle, masters of foot-dragging, hope to stretch out his tenure for as long as possible.

From that Dermer-Witkoff meeting emerged what’s become known as the “Witkoff plan,” though it’s more accurately the “Netanyahu plan,” coming from the American envoy only to spare Netanyahu coalition woes from rightist ministers.

What, then, has led Netanyahu to do a 180-degree turn and make an unequivocal demand for an all-encompassing deal? The answer to that is multi-layered, with diplomatic and military angles, but also political ones.

Ministers and diplomatic officials who spoke with Netanyahu 45 days ago — on the eve of the 90-day Knesset recess, during which the government is safe from no-confidence motions — received the impression that he was headed for a quick temporary deal.

As we reported here at the time, Netanyahu’s plan was to pass the measure in the first days of the recess, and reach the ceasefire’s 60-day mark in a comfortable position, politically — still 30 days away from the start of the Knesset’s winter session.

That plan was thwarted by Hamas, who stalled the talks, before desperately returning to the table a month later, when they realized that the conquest of Gaza was turning into Israeli policy, rather than remaining a messianic dream of right-wing radicals.

But at this point, Netanyahu lacks the political capital to go for a temporary truce. Even if the deal could be passed this week, the Knesset reconvenes in 45 days, two weeks before the deal would end.

If the Knesset’s winter session opens against the backdrop of images of the release of Palestinians security prisoners with blood on their hands and Israel withdrawing from Gaza, Itamar Ben-Gvir, who proved during the last deal that he doesn’t make do with threats, will have to take action. And Bezalel Smotrich, whose party is crashing under the electoral threshold in most polls, would have no choice but to follow suit.

The chareidi parties have already left the government over the draft crisis, but they continue to keep the government afloat to avoid being portrayed as having brought down a right-wing government. But in an alternate reality where a deal is signed and the right-wing factions also leave the government, Netanyahu will enter the winter session as a lame duck.

In this situation, taking into account political considerations as well as professional ones, Netanyahu would much rather make Hamas members in Gaza city into sitting ducks — at least on paper.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1077)