The new POTUS plan for two warring former Soviet republics offers a corridor out of a century-old feud

Photo: AP Images

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resident Trump was supposed to spend the week at his Bedminster golf resort, but the clubs stayed in storage and the suite remained empty. Instead, POTUS turned the White House into a weeklong command center.

In Texas, a redistricting standoff became a Trump drama when he ordered the DOJ and FBI to track down fleeing Democrats. On the economic front, he rolled out the America First 2.0: Tariff Blitz (“Come for the 100% bonus on semiconductors, stay for the 50% increase on Indian imports”), flanked by manufacturing CEOs. Behind closed doors, the president made the necessary arrangements for his Putin summit, scheduled to take place in Alaska later this week. Midweek, Trump gave reporters a West Wing rooftop gaggle, answering a few shouted questions while inspecting the future site of the White House Grand Ballroom.

Everything until now was build-up — sharp, fast, and headline-grabbing. But the main performance would take place in the East Room, where Trump attempted to end a conflict that has survived empires and is older than most of the portraiture in the White House.

For more than a century, and with particular intensity over the past three and a half decades, Armenia and Azerbaijan have been locked in a feud so bitter it has cost thousands of lives, displaced myriad communities, and hardened national psyches to the point where each generation inherits both the dispute and the bitterness to go with it.

Until now.

On August 8, 2025, the two countries agreed to what’s being billed as an “irreversible path for peace.” This time, it might actually stick. The speed of the turnaround is whiplash-inducing: In April, intelligence briefings warned that war could erupt within 48 hours. Now in August, the leaders of both nations are signing a peace agreement while showering Trump with Nobel Prize nominations.

The pitch was fairly straightforward. If both nations choose not to fight, they’ll be rewarded with generous economic and trade incentives from the US and everyone makes a lot of money. If, on the other hand, they do fight, all bets are off.

Well, since they weren’t fighting just then, both sides agreed to hold off on any new fighting and wait to see how negotiations develop. And both sides liked what they were seeing.

The deal’s crown jewel is the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, TRIPP, a transport and infrastructure link connecting mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave along the Iranian border. For Azerbaijan, this is the missing piece in its national puzzle. Since the Soviet breakup, Nakhchivan has been cut off from the mainland, accessible only via Iran or expensive air routes. This land bridge doesn’t just unite territory, it unites the national economy and streamlines defense logistics.

The Trump Route will carry rail lines, pipelines, electricity, fiber optics, and oil and gas infrastructure. For Armenia, landlocked and subject to economic isolation, the corridor promises reciprocal access and a vital economic lifeline. Analysts agree that the route could deliver significant economic uplift, potentially pouring tens of billions of dollars in new trade into the region and sharply improving Armenia’s connectivity and investment outlook.

And the regional logistics map? Completely rewritten. Central Asia’s exports, from Kazakh grain to Uzbek minerals, can now head west without being routed through either Moscow’s rails or Iran’s ports.

Because Azerbaijan and Armenia have been in a state of war for decades, direct travel between them has been impossible. As the US negotiating team discovered, a trip from one capital to the other requires an eight-hour detour through Qatar or the UAE, even though they’re only a couple hundred miles apart. It’s the diplomatic version of driving from Brooklyn to Queens by way of Montreal. Thanks to this peace agreement, they’ll be getting direct flights.

A few months ago, Armenia was bracing to lose yet another war to Azerbaijan. Now, they’re talking about investment, infrastructure, and integration. A senior Armenian official put it plainly: If this agreement holds, his grandchildren will be the first in a century to grow up without the expectation of dying in their grandfather’s war.

Azerbaijan, meanwhile, gets something it has wanted for decades: the repeal of Section 907, the 1992 US law that placed sanctions on Azerbaijan, which has been a thorn in Baku’s side for 33 years. It’s just been pulled out.

POTUS Quote Us

At the White House signing ceremony this past week, President Trump summed up the moment with the kind of casual braggadocio afforded to a peacemaker: “It’s an honor to use ‘power’ or ‘respect’ to settle wars.”

Trump didn’t just settle a war; he sold a future.

“We have a very comprehensive agreement. It’s a peace agreement. This isn’t ceasefire, this is a peace agreement. They’re gonna end up doing a lot of business with each other, they’re gonna do a lot of business with the United States… I’m gonna remember how smart they were, how good they were. And when it comes to trade and other things, we’re gonna always go 100% out of our way to make sure it works out good for them.”

Translation: Break your word, and you lose the business and political perks that come with being in Trump’s good graces. Keep your word, and Washington will bend over backward to make the peace profitable. It’s not just a handshake; it’s a handshake with a cash register attached.

The Geopolitical Earthquake

The chessboard between Iran and Russia has been upended, and a few of China’s Belt and Road pieces have been knocked clean off the board. Here are the losers.

Iran has long profited from Armenia’s isolation and Azerbaijan’s disconnection, forcing both to route trade through Iranian territory. The new Trump Route bypasses Iran entirely, cutting it out of regional commerce and eroding its relevance as a transit hub.

Russia’s favorite trick in the Caucasus has been “managed instability.” Meaning, just enough tension to keep both sides running back to Mother Russia for security guarantees. Moving forward, the US, not the Kremlin, is the primary guarantor, and Moscow is stuck watching from the cheap seats in the Donbass.

China’s Belt and Road just hit a lane closure. The middle corridor now zips through US-aligned turf, an expressway Beijing can’t merge onto without Washington’s permission.

The winners, in addition to Armenia and Azerbaijan, are just as clear.

Israel tightens an already robust partnership with Baku, which supplies about 60% of its oil and shares valuable intelligence.

Turkey benefits from new energy flows and regional influence.

The United States has just muscled its way into the driver’s seat of a region that’s been in Russia’s sphere of influence for decades.

The Bottom Line

This agreement isn’t self-driving, and the road ahead runs straight through territory where one bad move could reignite the war. The US will have to stay engaged, steering the Trump Route to completion while keeping both sides tethered to the deal. But as with the Abraham Accords, one breakthrough tends to create momentum for the next.

In a rare act of mutual PR, President Aliyev and Prime Minister Pashinyan agreed to jointly nominate President Trump for a Nobel Peace Prize and POTUS agreed to invite them if he wins one. It’s a symbolic move, but it’s also a form of insurance. They’ve both publicly hitched their names and reputations to this deal’s success. If it falls apart, it’s not just the peace that’s dead, it’s their credibility on the world stage.

Personal Note: The Case of Vugar Mikhailov

While not formally part of the deal, I can’t help but think of Vugar Mikhailov, an Azerbaijani Jewish soldier who vanished during the first Nagorno-Karabakh war (see “The Missing Jewish Son of Karabakh,” Issue 1057). Witnesses say he was seen working as a forced laborer in Armenian-controlled territory, but when that area was retaken in 2023, there was no sign of him.

I’ve spent years chasing his story, meeting his family in Israel and piecing together what happened. If this peace holds and real dialogue opens up between the two countries, cases like Vugar’s might finally get the answers they’ve been denied for decades.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1074)