The Race to the WH forecast gives the GOP a 58% chance of transforming Senate blue into red

Control of the US Senate is already slipping out of Democratic hands — long before the 2024 election, when Dems will be forced to defend 23 of the 34 seats up for grabs.

With Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-AZ) officially declaring herself an independent, and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-WV) flaunting his independent streak, the Democrats’ slim 51-seat majority has effectively been neutralized.

Both Sinema and Manchin have long differed with the Biden administration on key issues affecting their constituents, such as energy policy, immigration, and deficit spending. Neither senator has announced yet whether they will seek re-election in 2024, but there is no way either of them could win again as blue-blooded Democrats, and they know it.

A red wave has swept through West Virginia in the last decade. Donald Trump carried the state in 2016 and 2020 by better than two-to-one margins. Republicans control both branches of the state legislature by nearly 10-to-1 margins, and every member of the state’s Congressional delegation, except for Manchin, is Republican. Now that Republican governor Jim Justice announced two weeks ago that he will run for Manchin’s seat, Manchin knows that without Republican votes, he is finished.

Sinema’s situation in Arizona is analogous but differs in the details.

Arizona’s voters are evenly divided between Democrats, Republicans, and independents. A liberal Democrat, Rep. Ruben Gallego, has already announced he is running for Sinema’s seat. Her only path to re-election is to capture enough Republican and Independent votes.

No matter how those races turn out, Republicans are sitting pretty going into 2024. The Race to the WH forecast gives the GOP a 58% chance of transforming Senate blue into red.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 960)