With less than 50 days to go until the election, let’s see how the five swing states look

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“swing state” is up for grabs. An election there could reasonably be won by either a Democrat or a Republican. Swing states draw a lot of attention from presidential candidates and the media. Each state a candidate can add to his or her Electoral College column, and deny to his or her opponent, builds the all-important margin of victory on Election Night.

I was born in St. Louis but grew up in Cleveland. I remember my parents talking about how Missouri and Ohio were both swing states. I felt important, even though I couldn’t vote. Missouri voted for the Republican Eisenhower in 1952, Democratic Kennedy in 1960, and back to a Republican in 1968 with Nixon. Ohio had a similar, more recent pattern: It went for the Democrat Clinton in 1996, then the Republican Bush in 2004, then for the Democrat Obama in 2012. Lately, neither Missouri nor Ohio seems likely to swing: Missouri hasn’t gone Democratic since 1996, and Ohio voted for Trump in the last two elections.

This year we can count five swing states. They voted for Trump in 2016 and flipped to Biden in 2020, and they are very much up for grabs this year: Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

With less than 50 days to go until the election, let’s see how they each look.

Wisconsin: “The Badger State”

2020 margin of victory: 20,682 votes

Current Polls: Bloomberg has Harris up 8 points, CBS News has Harris up 2 points, and The Hill/Emerson Poll has Trump up 1 point.

State of Race: There are factors weighing against Trump in Wisconsin right now. In the Senate race, Democratic incumbent Tammy Baldwin consistently polls ahead of her opponent. RFK Jr.’s name is still on the ballot, although he is suing to have it removed; if he fails, it could spell trouble for Trump.

Harris must watch out for a troubling new trend: Young voters are not motivated to turn out. A recent Marquette University poll showed a 12 percent drop in pro-Harris voters aged 18–29 from a previous poll.

If the Election Were Held Today: This is too close to call right now.

Georgia: “The Peach State”

2020 margin of victory: 11,779 votes

Current Polls: Fox and Bloomberg have Harris up by 2 points. Quinnipiac has Trump up 3 points.

State of Race: Georgia is difficult to predict. Before Biden won in 2020, Republicans had won in the past six presidential elections. Democrats have made significant inroads in this once solidly Republican state. Stacey Abrams remains a formidable political force. Democrats have won both of Georgia’s US Senate seats. But infighting between popular Republican governor Kemp and Donald Trump is a definite factor.

If the Election Were Held Today: I would give this to Harris. I think the Georgia Democratic Party is more unified and prepared for this election.

Arizona: “The Grand Canyon State”

2020 margin of victory: 10,457 votes

Current Polls: Bloomberg has the race tied. Fox News has Harris up by one point. The Hill/Emerson has Trump up by 3 points.

State of Race: There is a Senate race in which the Democratic candidate consistently leads by between 3 and 15 points. This is bad news for Trump and a sign of where Arizona is shifting.

But immigration is a lightning-rod issue in Arizona. An August survey by Noble Predictive Insights, a Phoenix firm, cited immigration as the number one issue. Additionally, there is a state ballot measure in November that would make it a state crime to cross the southern border.

If the Election Were Held Today: I would give this to Trump. I believe the immigration issue will drive turnout and help Trump. It’s a decisive factor in this state’s swing.

Michigan: “The Wolverine State”

2020 margin of victory: 154,188 votes

Current Polls: Rasmussen has Harris up by 1 point. Bloomberg and The Hill/Emerson have Harris up by 3 points.

State of Race: Michigan continues to lean left but isn’t easy to peg. There is a Senate race in Michigan with the Democratic challenger up between 4 and 7 points in the latest polling. Third-party candidates like Cornel West and RFK Jr. will remain on the ballot per court order, and will both draw off right and left voters. Muslim voters make up a sizable voting bloc and have expressed interest in a protest vote against the Democratic ticket.

If the Election Were Held Today: I can’t see over 100,000 voters switching back to the GOP. I give this to Harris.

Pennsylvania: “The Keystone State”

2020 margin of victory: 80,555 votes

Current Polls: CBS News, CNN, and The Hill/Emerson all have them tied.

State of Race: I believe this is the definitive swing state right now. There is a Senate race on the ballot that has the Democratic incumbent up by between 1 and 7 points in latest polling. There is a popular Democratic governor on the ballot who wasn’t picked by Harris for VP. Fracking is a major issue for rural voters, while abortion is a major issue in the Philadelphia suburbs. This is the largest swing state with Jewish voters by far.

If the Election Were Held Today: Too close to call. Going to go down to the wire.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1029)