The Grand Old Battle for the GOP is on

In the perma-politics that is today’s America, the starting gun for next November’s midterms was last week’s gubernatorial elections — and thanks to a GOP surge, some Republicans feel that the race is theirs to lose.

Not so fast. That outcome — and certainly the 2024 White House race —depends on which Republican Party shows up next year: an unreformed Trumpy version, still beating the drum of election fraud, or one that doesn’t send swing voters into the arms of the Democrats.

So which version of the party is set to lead? The Grand Old Battle for the GOP is on.

Biden Bust

A year after losing the White House and Congress, Republican optimism centers on the disastrous performance of both the president and his party. Joe Biden’s approval ratings have plummeted to the low forties, according to many polls, as voters register his fumbling of everything from Afghanistan to inflation. Meanwhile, the Democrats’ loss of the Virginia state house last week was voters’ answer to the party’s far-left lurch.

House Divided

“If you’re a Democrat and President Biden won your seat by 16 points, you’re in a competitive race next year,” House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy said after the Virginia victory, saying that Republicans could take back 60 seats next year.

Not all Republicans are so sanguine. Speaking before a gathering of the Republican Jewish Committee, former New Jersey governor and Trump critic Chris Christie warned about the threat of relitigating 2020 (read: Donald Trump).

“Winning campaigns look forward, not backward,” he said. Noting the “less-than-enthusiastic response,” says the New York Times, “Mr. Christie implored the audience: ‘That deserves applause. Because if we don’t get it, we are going to lose.’ ”

Center Lane

That debate centers on how to interpret the GOP surge that handed Virginia to outsider Glenn Youngkin, and almost swept Democrat Phil Murphy from the New Jersey governor’s mansion. Did unrepentant Trumpism defeat disastrously liberal Bidenism, or was it Youngkin’s issues-focused conservatism that attracted moderates who wouldn’t dream of voting for Trump?

Haley’s Comet

One politician clearly hoping to bridge that divide in a post-Trump future is former ambassador to the UN Nikki Haley. In a recent speech, she praised her former boss’s legacy, while critiquing central elements of his policies. “It pains me to see some of our friends turning their backs on our principles,” she said, comparing some Trumpists to the “frightened Tories Margaret Thatcher faced in 1980.

“You know what I’m talking about. The conservatives who claim capitalism no longer works. They conclude that economic freedom fails families and hurts workers. So they’re trying to create a hybrid capitalism — a hyphenated capitalism. It’s all a sham.”

Questions, Questions

It’s safe to assume that the former president will continue to be both the party’s kingmaker, and potential king. So Haley’s bid to appeal to both the Trumpian and legacy wings of the Republican Party could come off the rails once Donald Trump shows his hand. That may not matter for 2022: Democratic self-immolation might well hand Republicans the midterms even without their resolving their identity crisis. But in that case, 2024 will turn out to be the ultimate test of what Virginia’s election was all about.

Lakewood and Murphy

It’s safe to say that no endorsement during the 2021 gubernatorial race in New Jersey received as much attention across the state as did the one from the Lakewood Vaad in favor of Democrat incumbent Phil Murphy.

But how much is the Vaad’s endorsement really worth in today’s Lakewood, when many residents are unconnected to the core yeshivah community, with which the Vaad is affiliated?

Based on the number of voters who actually participated in the election, we can make a simple calculation.

• As of Sunday night, Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli received 12,036 total votes to Murphy’s 7,560.
• Subtracting the number of voters who would have voted for him regardless of endorsement — the number of votes other non-endorsed Democrats down ballot received — is a good measure. The Democrat candidate with the highest number of votes down ballot is Dan Stinger, who ran against New Jersey state senator Bob Singer in the 30th Legislative District. Stinger, who was not endorsed by the Vaad, received 3,080 votes.
• It’s safe to assume that those 3,080 voters would likely have voted for Murphy regardless, leaving us with 4,480 extra votes for Murphy — likely a direct result of the Vaad’s endorsement.

—Shlomo Schorr

History Desk

As rebel forces threaten the Ethiopian capital Addis Ababa, and Israeli authorities consider evacuating those with Jewish roots, the community’s unclear status becomes a factor in Israeli policy again.

The connections between the two countries precede the long-running Ethiopian immigration, though.

In 1924, the country’s Emperor Haile Selassie visited Jerusalem on a world tour. Selassie, who was a great believer in the United Nations — later sending Ethiopian troops to fight in Korea under the UN flag — traveled across Europe with a colorful retinue. His baggage train included a pride of lions, members of which he gave away to world leaders on his travels. After being overthrown in 1936, he returned to then-Palestine again.

A walk past the Ethiopian church compound on Jerusalem’s Ethiopia Street highlights the country’s long self-identification with Biblical and Jewish themes. The entrance masonry is carved with a “Lion of Judah,” part of the country’s claim that the imperial dynasty descended from Shlomo Hamelech.

Pauper King

Bibi Netanyahu, in his still-unfamiliar guise as leader of the opposition, didn’t wait for the final vote tally, As soon as he’d voted against the budget under the letter nun, he left the Knesset plenum after last Thursday’s dawn vote.

It was an admission that his best hope for bringing down the Bennett government — by preventing the budget passing — had failed.

What’s next? Two scenarios to end the political stalemate seem possible. One is for the government to collapse under the weight of its own contradictions, with the left and right wings pulling apart under the pressure of a future crisis. The second is Likud MKs jumping ship to swell the government ranks, knowing that there is no quick way back to power with Netanyahu.

A third seems most likely: Like some pauper king, Bibi remains party boss, too weak to rule, too strong to unseat. And so Israel’s great Yes Bibi-No Bibi debate rolls on and on.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 885)