Veteran Israeli diplomats discuss their own experience working with previous Democratic administrations, and offer pointers for Israel’s representatives
Photos: Flash90
Israeli Envoys Size Up Biden
Compared to the deep freeze of the Obama years, Israel’s ties to Washington under the Trump administration were warm and close. With Joe Biden set to take over in January, many advocates for the Jewish state wonder if a new cold front is blowing in.
But several veteran Israeli diplomats recommend taking a sunny disposition. They discuss their own experience working with previous Democratic administrations, and offer pointers for Israel’s representatives on how to build productive relationships. The envoys are:
-Michael Oren, former ambassador to the US (2009–2013)
-Gilad Erdan, current ambassador to the UN
-Ron Prosor, former ambassador to the UN (2011–2015) and current head of the Abba Eban Institute for International Diplomacy
-Dani Dayan, Israel’s consul general in New York
-Yuval Rotem, former director-general of the Foreign Ministry
-Shai Bazak, former Israeli consul in Miami and Boston
-Danny Danon, former ambassador to the UN (2015–2020) and current chair of the World Likud
These diplomats’ best assessment is that Biden will spend his first year focusing on domestic issues: the coronavirus, the economy, and the deep divisions in American society. When foreign affairs do come up, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict will be far down on the agenda. Biden will first want to deal with the Iranians, restore America’s status in NATO, and reset relations with China and Russia.
The Iran Deal
Israel’s chief concern is probably how Biden will deal with the Iran nuclear deal that Trump abandoned. The Tehran regime will unquestionably be a priority in his foreign policy agenda. Biden has said that if the Iranians return to compliance with the deal, America will follow suit, lifting sanctions. Only then will the administration sit down to hash out a new deal with Iran and the Europeans. Harris supported reentering the nuclear deal during the Democratic primaries, but stressed that it should be “expanded,” without elaborating.
“When it comes to Iran, we know that he aspires to re-enter the nuclear deal, but at the same time he has a lot of preconditions, which are ultimately similar to Trump’s demands,” says Shai Bazak. “Trump didn’t exit the nuclear deal to leave it for good, but to reenter it on better conditions. Biden is also setting tough terms for re-entering the deal.”
At the same time, the United States will continue opposing the ayatollahs’ destabilizing activities in the region, and won’t let up targeted sanctions in the areas of human rights abuses, sponsoring terror, and missile development. In Dayan and Danon’s view, Biden will try to be tougher than Obama and introduce improvements to the deal. They doubt Iran will agree to this, but would still benefit from the lifting of the sanctions.
Israel, they say, will have to convince Biden’s people not to give in to the Iranians. “Given that it doesn’t seem Biden will involve himself too much with the Palestinians, the Iranian issue is the main story from Israel’s respective. Trump’s policy was one of maximum pressure on Iran. Israel will try to convince Biden that if he wants the Iranians to agree to a reasonable deal, he can only do that by continuing the sanctions.”
Some of these diplomats expressed a concern that the Biden administration will turn back the clock to the Obama era, and that the Iranians will continue enriching uranium and aggressively sponsoring terrorism out of an assumption that the Biden administration has no wish for a confrontation with them.
“This could potentially lead to a military conflict between Iran and Israel as the only way to prevent Iran from acquiring a bomb,” says a diplomat who declined to be quoted by name.
An Obama Repeat
Despite Biden’s pro-Israel image, his time as Obama’s vice president has colored that perception — and for many, this is a cause for concern. Israel hasn’t forgotten the dominant role he played behind the scenes of UN Security Council Resolution 2334, which proclaimed the illegality of Israeli settlements, in December 2016.
The United States delegation led that effort — on the eve of Trump’s inauguration as president. It was none other than Biden who personally convinced several world leaders — including the president of Ukraine — to support the motion, which led to a crisis in Israeli-Ukrainian relations.
It was also Biden who convinced New Zealand to put forward the motion, after Egyptian president Al Sisi backed away, after signals from Israel that it wouldn’t be worth it for him to get into trouble with Trump. Biden and Susan Rice, then national security advisor, presided over the decision that was viewed as Obama’s final move in office.
That same Rice is now being mentioned as a possible candidate for secretary of state in the Biden administration. Biden’s foreign policy advisor, Tony Blinken, a Jew, is being mentioned as a candidate for a senior White House post, maybe national security advisor.
Danny Danon and Ron Prosor note that disappointed friends can be more dangerous than open enemies. At the same time, they emphasize that Biden is by no means an enemy. Says Danon: “Remember the famous Ramat Shlomo incident during Biden’s visit in March 2010? Forget it.”
Danon is harking back to an incident in which the Interior Ministry announced permits for 1,600 new housing units in Ramat Shlomo during an official visit by Vice President Biden, a bureaucratic procedure that some construed as a calculated insult. Biden was furious, considered canceling his official dinner at the prime minister’s residence, and ultimately arrived at the ceremony one hour late in a public snub. This story is buried in the past, part of the complicated relationship between Obama and Netanyahu.
Danon believes that Biden, a cautious veteran politician who knows how to adapt to circumstances, was putting on theatrics for Obama’s sake. As president, Biden will act in accordance with his own vision and instincts. “He’s set to be a president who’s friendly to Israel, not as actively as Trump, but positive and not particularly surprising.”
Says Prosor: “It ties in to the long personal acquaintance of Biden and Netanyahu. The president-elect has a sympathetic attitude to Israel. You can count the vice president elect, Kamala Harris, in as well.”
Asked if Israel has anything to fear from a Biden administration, former ambassador Michael Oren replies: “There are differences between Biden and Obama. I know Biden personally, and he’s pro-Israel and committed to our security. He won’t use economic aid as leverage against us. At the same time, he’s still a president from the Democratic Party who has very clear views on the Palestinians and Iranian issues. These views would conflict with those of almost any Israeli government.
“I’m talking about the Obama-Clinton parameters for peace — i.e., a two-state solution based on the ’67 borders with East Jerusalem as a Palestinian capital. I’m talking about opposition to Jewish building in Judea and Samaria, including East Jerusalem. And on the Iranian issue, renewal of the Iran nuclear deal and lifting sanctions. It will be a challenging situation for Israel.”
Whither the Democrats?
As a general point, Oren notes that he identifies an increasing radicalization in America that could have negative repercussions on Israel. “America is radicalizing. We feel it particularly on the Democratic side, but it’s happening to the Republicans as well. The polarization is increasing, and we may be on the verge of an explosion. The situation is flammable, the country is filled with firearms, and it’s dangerous. One thing the two parties have in common that will affect our future is isolationism. Neither party wants to be the world’s policeman anymore.”
But given that set of circumstances, this group says, Israel should be thankful that the Democrats picked Biden and Harris.
“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris are the most pro-Israel ticket we can expect from the Democratic Party,” says Dani Dayan. “My suggestion is that we see their victory as an opportunity rather than a disappointment. I think this may be our last chance to repair our broken relationship with the Democratic Party, and from that perspective they’re the best pair we could hope for. I once heard Biden say that he agrees with practically nothing Netanyahu says, but he likes him. Personal relationships are an important component of diplomacy. It’s an open secret that Netanyahu would prefer a Republican, but if he has to work with a Democrat, Biden is a relatively comfortable choice.”
Shai Bazak also plays up Biden’s Israel support: “Throughout his 47 years in politics, Biden has shown unqualified loyalty to Israel. He took our side at every vote and every initiative related to Israel. He’s described himself on several occasions as Zionist. Ambassador Dani Ayalon told me that he heard that from Biden firsthand.”
Yuval Rotem, former director-general of the Foreign Ministry, accompanied Kamala Harris during her 2017 visit to Israel. “She expressed interest in Israel and Judaism,” Rotem recounts. “She asked a lot of questions and wanted to learn about everything. She has a warm and admiring relationship with the Jewish community. She’s also well-liked by the major Jewish federations in the United States.”
Biden is a firm believer in the two-state solution, according to people close to him. Dan Shapiro, Obama’s US ambassador to Israel, predicted this week that the new administration will make founding a Palestinian state a strategic goal. Biden and Kamala Harris will likely support the peace deals Trump negotiated between Israel and the Gulf States — Biden praised them at the time — but won’t invest in them as heavily. It is also believed that Biden will reject Trump’s deal of the century, which made the Palestinians irrelevant. Biden could try to reopen Israeli-Palestinian dialogue. The Palestinians for their part have expressed openness to this.
Dani Dayan says Kamala Harris is a believer in the two-state solution, but has also defended Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas. Harris also said that the US should not pressure Israel into a resolution of the conflict because “you can’t impose peace from the outside.”
In any event, these envoys say, Israel should bear in mind that rough patches will come up, whichever party is in charge in Washington.
“Historically, our relations with the US have known ups and downs,” Bazak says. “We had a difficult time with Bush Sr. and his secretary of state, James Baker, and we had a really easy time with Bush Jr., who was friendly with Sharon and Olmert. Each administration acts in accordance with what it senses from the public. The American public is increasingly withdrawing from the world stage. They’re too divided over domestic issues to concern themselves much with foreign affairs. But if you look at Congress, Israel has the support of about 70 percent of members, in both chambers.
“Israel has a supreme duty to do everything in its power to ensure support from both sides of the aisle. This is critical for our future, and we have to invest in it.”
Gilad Erdan, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, says, diplomatically,: “Israel will work and cooperate with whoever is elected, because ours is a strategic partnership. Israel is an island of stability in the Middle East, and it’s in the United States’ interest to preserve this partnership.”
Undoing Trump
With the wondrous advances of the Trump years, many in Israel obviously worry that America will take steps back under Biden. In all likelihood, Biden won’t relocate the US embassy from Jerusalem to Tel Aviv, though it’s unclear if the US ambassador will still live in Jerusalem. The general assumption is that Biden will reopen the American consulate in East Jerusalem, which under Trump had basically become an arm of the embassy that stopped concerning itself with Palestinian affairs. Biden intends to renew economic aid to the Palestinians, which was frozen under Trump; and he’ll also reopen the Palestinian embassy in Washington. All these steps are intended to restore Palestinian faith in America as an impartial broker, which was lost during the Trump administration.
Biden is expected to embrace Trump’s policy of regional normalization with Israel, and will attempt to exploit the momentum of Israel’s deals with the UAE, Bahrain, and Sudan. He will act to encourage Arab and Muslim nations to continue the process of normalizing ties with Israel, but will attempt to use it to create positive momentum for a two-state solution and renewal of dialogue with the Palestinians.
Officials in Israel say there’s no reason why the Biden administration should condemn building in the settlements, because Israel has an agreement with the US to continue building in existing settlements and not found any new ones. But it’s unlikely that Israel and the Biden administration will see eye-to-eye on this. After all, under Obama there was dead-set opposition to any building in the settlements.
What concerns Jerusalem is the question of who will be on the team Biden appoints to handle the peace process, the Iranian issue, and relations with Israel. It’s believed the team will be younger, less polite, and less committed to Israel and Netanyahu personally. But my interviewees are confident that Biden will avoid confrontations that could needlessly escalate tensions.
Everyone agrees about one thing: Biden is a close friend of Israel and is committed to its security and its qualitative military edge in the region. For him, support of Israel is deep, emotional, and sincere. He proved it in countless pro-Israel statements and a legislative record to match in the Senate.
