What must Trump do to recalibrate? Is there enough time to right the ship before the pivotal midterms?

T

he ship is off course. Blocked by the courts. Stifled by Congress. Abandoned by allies. Trump’s policy agendas have hit powerful headwinds. Immigration, tariff reform, and government reorganization have all been stifled. Foundational policies of Trump’s second term are all in jeopardy of crashing, with more storms brewing ahead. What must he do to recalibrate? Is there enough time to right the ship before the pivotal midterms?

Setbacks: The Waters Turn Rough

Immigration: District judge Nancy Brassel just ruled against one of Trump’s immigration enforcement policies. According to Politico, it’s the 45th time that a Trump-nominated judge has ruled against his mass-detention policies. This ruling follows an announced drawdown by White House border czar Tom Homan of ICE agents in Minnesota after massive political and media backlash.

Government Reorganization: A debate over shutting down the Department of Homeland Security is now on the table. These kinds of debates are now a mainstay in Washington. But prior to this, there were nonstop talks about DOGE, the cost-cutting initiative led by Elon Musk. He left the administration, and government reorganization seemed to be replaced with shutdown after shutdown — a far cry from the original ambitious agenda.

Tariffs: The Republican-controlled House of Representatives voted to overturn Trump’s tariffs on Canada. The party leadership has been able to block such votes in the past, but this time six Republicans defied their leaders and joined Democrats against one of the president’s signature issues. The Supreme Court is still deliberating Trump’s tariffs, but it seems that the House couldn’t wait. The Supreme Court decision could come any day and will prove decisive on whether tariffs get largely overturned.

Why This Could Get Worse

Republican defiance of the president could spread to other agenda items. Currently, this Republican opposition includes two retireesDan Newhouse (R-WA) and Don Bacon (R-NE); a gerrymandered seat in Kevin Kiley (R-CA); and frequent Trump opponent Tom Massie (R-KY). Is this the tip of the iceberg?

CNN reported that Congressman Bacon said as many 30 Republicans could join him in blocking the tariffs. At the same time the House was pushing back against tariffs, Alaska’s Senator Lisa Murkowski became the first Republican to speak out against the SAVE Act, an election bill requiring proof of citizenship. What’s stopping more Republicans from bucking the president? The midterms loom large and for many Republicans, reelection is more important than loyalty to the president.

Court decisions could multiply. If the Supreme Court rules against tariffs, this will prompt more challenges. Those opposed to Trump’s agenda will not be scared to fight these battles even with Trump-appointed justices, if they see they can win and stall his agenda. Exits of cabinet members or senior advisors would stall more agenda items.

The president can’t afford internal Republican opposition, court delays, or cabinet departures. Any of this could quickly put his agenda in lame-duck status — hampering his ability to move major policies due to the perception that he doesn’t have the requisite political power.

Steering Back to Safe Water

Republicans are the key to the survival of these major Trump agenda issues. Think about it — it’s not Democrats who have been torpedoing so much of what Trump is trying to accomplish. It’s been Republicans in Congress defying the president on tariffs, conservative judges defying him on immigration, and former political allies bailing on his DOGE agenda.

Trump is taking his usual approach toward recalcitrant Republicans — attacking them. After the six House Republicans voted with Democrats against tariffs: “Any Republican, in the House or the Senate, that votes against Tariffs will seriously suffer the consequences come Election time, and that includes Primaries!”

How effective will that approach be when many of these Republicans aren’t running for re-election? Why not instead have these six Republicans come to the White House and cut a deal with them to stave off further dissent? It’s clear what these Republicans want. They are concerned about the impact of tariffs on jobs in their districts and about how this is implemented constitutionally. The administration must sit with them and address these concerns.

Supreme Court justices can’t be negotiated with the way one would with a legislator. But why not pursue policies that conservative justices will agree with? Their prior judicial records are clear; why not tailor orders and policy in ways that are acceptable to them?

Conservative justices are either strict constitutionalists who anchor their decisions in the founding fathers’ original meaning, libertarians who safeguard economic liberty and state rights, or pragmatists with a combination of these viewpoints. Republican presidents could only dream of a six-seat Supreme Court majority; how is it even possible that tariffs aren’t constructed in a way that will pass with such a group?

When it comes to pushing his other agenda items, where are his other allies? Since Musk’s departure, who else is picking up the DOGE banner? These are fundamental questions that must be asked to Trump’s erstwhile allies in business. Why are they not pushing Trump’s agenda items with their gravitas and personality? Their absence is telling.

Business leaders crowded around the president at the beginning of the first term but haven’t been as prevalent lately. Is that on them or the administration? If the administration wants business leaders in the frame, it has to convince them that White House policies are popular and worth aligning with.

Musk isn’t the only billionaire out there. When the administration has made a concerted effort to bring others in, it has shown it can be effective. When, earlier this month, Trump announced his savings accounts plans, Michael Dell was there pledging an additional $6 billion, along with his name and reputation. Trump needs more of this across his entire agenda.

What to Watch Next

One of the biggest indicators on whether Trump is successfully recalibrating his agenda is how well he brings Republicans together around one of his biggest accomplishments, the One Big Beautiful Bill. Tax season is upon us, and that means major provisions from that bill are due to take effect. These include increases to the child tax credit, no taxes on tips, deduction changes, and tax rate revisions. This could mean major savings to Americans as they file their taxes in the next few months.

It’s also an opportunity for Trump to galvanize Republicans members of Congress, candidates running for office, and business leaders around this policy win. If he can leverage this to reset with his Republican allies, it could be a turning point for other policy items that are currently being derailed or are lacking key Republican support. Look to the rollout of these tax provisions as a key indicator on whether Trump can get his major agenda items back on track — or watch them continue to stray off course.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1100)