With year one of his second term under his belt, Trump faces daunting challenges in 2026

M

ost people consider President Donald Trump unpredictable. Among the eight presidents I’ve covered in my career, I find him among the most predictable.

He speaks his mind, even if he veers off on tangents. He tells you what he’s going to do and how he’s going to do it, and then he does it. He rarely flip-flops in the face of criticism — if anything, he doubles down.

Politifact, which tracks Trump’s campaign promises and compares them to his performance, reports that of 55 promises, Trump has kept 12, 31 are still in the works, and he has broken only one, which was too rash to make in the first place — namely, to end the Russia-Ukraine war within 24 hours.

Despite Trump’s consistency, public discontent in the first year of his second term is widespread and profound. Most polls show Trump’s approval rating hovering around 40%, and 60% of the country believes America is headed in the wrong direction.

Many of Trump’s critics wouldn’t like him no matter what he did, even if he delivered a chicken in every pot and a Tesla in every garage. They will never make peace with his crass, combative manner. Others take issue with his policies or priorities. Recent polls show that a majority of Americans believe Trump is overemphasizing foreign policy, such as trying to take over Gaza and Greenland. In contrast, most Americans couldn’t find Gaza on a map and care only about how much green lands in their wallets or purses, and how far that goes at Target or Walmart.

It’s easy to praise and much easier to criticize, yet most of what Trump has done is still a work in progress, and only historians will be able to tell a few years from now what succeeded and what failed.

Nevertheless, with another deadline approaching, we don’t have the luxury of waiting for history’s verdict. What follows is a recap of the most pressing matters Trump has addressed in his first year, and how that might unfold in 2026.

Trump Economics

Looking Back on 2025

Trump set out to stimulate the economy by lowering taxes for corporations and individuals, and he accomplished this with the “Big, Beautiful Bill” he signed into law in July, making permanent the tax cuts he first enacted in 2017. The 2025 version eliminated taxes on tips and overtime pay for certain workers, but it also included deep cuts and stricter qualification requirements for SNAP, formerly known as food stamps, which will stretch more budgets.

The president’s signature economic move was slapping tariffs on trade partners. The US Customs and Border Protection reported that Trump tariffs raised $200 billion in the first 11 months of his term. That sum only covers 12% of the $1.7 trillion in budget deficits the government ran up last year.

Inflation is running lower — 2.7% compared to 3.4% in the year before Trump took office — and gas prices are down about 8% nationally, year over year.

However, people don’t feel the difference. A Wall Street Journal poll last week found that 57% of Americans say the economy is either “not so good or poor.” Just 35% say it’s improved, while 55% report experiencing financial strain.

Looking Ahead in 2026

Multiple factors, including consumer spending decisions, where businesses choose to invest, new technologies, geopolitical shocks, global energy prices, and interest rates, are largely beyond a president’s control.

Affordability issues will remain a persistent vulnerability for a president whose party’s control of Congress is precarious as the midterm elections approach. Public sentiment on affordability is mixed, with some Americans feeling disconnected from the administration’s messaging that affordability is a “hoax.”

Any day now, the Supreme Court could overrule Trump’s authority to levy tariffs and force the government to repay all or part of what it’s collected. Trump must name a replacement for Fed chair Jay Powell, whose term ends in May. Financial market participants are rooting for a successor who will maintain the Fed’s independence to set interest rates based on economic data, to keep inflation under control, and not bow to Trump’s demand for sharply lower rates, which could reignite inflation.

Trump Politics

Looking Back on 2025

The primary lesson Trump and his advisors drew from his first term in office was that disloyal cabinet members and advisors, or those not fully committed to the president’s agenda, could derail it. After losing his reelection bid in 2020, Trump engineered a complete takeover of the Republican Party, placing loyalists and family members in top party positions, including fundraising. Trump’s strategy led to unprecedented electoral gains among Hispanic voters and voters under age 30. Because his endorsement could make or break candidates for state and local office, Trump began his new term with virtually no intra-party opposition, enabling him to push his agenda aggressively.

Former critics who have become loyalists now hold top positions, including Vice President J.D. Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio. Susie Wiles runs a no-nonsense Oval Office as Trump’s chief of staff. All of the above, along with others, including Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent, have the experience and integrity to speak their minds to Trump when the need arises, and Trump, to his credit, listens.

Looking Ahead in 2026

Momentum can shift quickly in politics. Voters are fickle. Trump won in 2024 because of widespread dissatisfaction with the Biden-Harris economy. The trend is changing. The US Hispanic Business Council just released a poll, shared exclusively with Politico, showing that Hispanic voters, who powered Trump into office in 2024, have turned negative. Forty-two percent said their economic situation has worsened. Just 24% said it’s better.

A Gallup Poll published last week showed that an increasing number of voters (45%) identify as Independent, while Republicans and Democrats each win the allegiance of 27%. According to Gallup’s methodology, the Republican gains in the 2024 election have dissipated due to voter dissatisfaction with Trump’s performance.

Gallup clarifies that these shifts are not signs that Americans are warming to the Democrats. Gallup reports that favorable ratings for the Democratic Party are hovering near historic lows.

The warning signs are flashing for both parties. Trump and the Republicans have more to lose because they are the party in power. If Democrats win control of Congress in November, Trump will be a lame duck; he could face impeachment proceedings again, and Republicans looking to position themselves for 2028 could desert him in droves.

Israel And The Neighborhood: A Mixed Bag

Looking Back on 2025

Trump didn’t promise to end Israel’s war with Gaza in 24 hours. Still, he kept pressure on Israel and Hamas’s patrons, including Qatar, Turkey, and Egypt, to reach a ceasefire and bring the hostages home, with one exception, Ran Gvili Hy”d, whose body remains unrecovered. The war ended with the IDF controlling over 50 percent of Gaza. By ordering B-2 bombers to take out Iran’s nuclear facilities, Trump became the first American president to directly assist Israel militarily in a war with an enemy.

At the same time, many of Trump’s initiatives have either flopped or failed to deliver the desired results. Saudi Arabia did not join the Abraham Accords and has hardened its stance, adopting more pro-Palestinian positions. Trump’s courtship of Syria’s new leader, Ahmed al-Sharaa, is proving both naive and counterproductive. Al-Sharaa’s armed forces are committing massacres against the Kurds, an Israeli and US ally, and seizing their economic assets.

Trump’s proposals to sell advanced F-35 fighter jets to Turkey and other Gulf States could erode Israel’s qualitative military edge. Prime Minister Netanyahu’s right-wing political allies are disappointed that the president came out so forcefully against Israel applying sovereignty to the communities in Judea and Samaria that are home to more than 500,000 Jews.

Looking Ahead in 2026

Trump’s push to move to Phase 2 of the 20-point Gaza ceasefire plan took Israel by surprise with its timing and the inclusion of Turkey and Qatar on the “Board of Peace,” which is supposed to monitor Hamas’s disarmament.

Trump’s grandiose plan for Gaza redevelopment is a head-scratcher. With Trump hailing from the world of real estate, his temptation to acquire cheap land and develop it is understandable, but there’s a world of difference between Gaza and Fifth Avenue. Not enough people are questioning what the US expects from its investment in a rubble-infested piece of land crawling with terrorists. Jared Kushner tried to paint a positive picture on X: “Let’s all dream together to make more unthinkable outcomes reality.”

US Syrian envoy Tom Barrack’s parallel idea to turn Syria’s side of the Golan into a ski resort, after al-Sharaa cleanses it of Alawites and Druze, of course, is another unthinkable dream that could turn into a nightmare.

The Gaza plan is so complex, with so many players, conflicting interests, and rivalries, that it could easily turn into a modern-day Tower of Babel.

Trump will have to go back to the drawing board on this one while deciding whether he needs to take out Iran, once and for all.

What About China, Russia, And Nato?

Looking Back at 2025

Trump’s boldest foreign policy move was the daring raid on Venezuela, capturing its narco-terrorist leader, Nicolas Maduro, and bringing him to justice in New York. In one fell swoop, he sent a clear signal that the US will no longer tolerate rogue dictators who send drugs and illegal immigrants to America. Trump’s desire to obtain Greenland, by hook or by crook, has put European NATO nations on edge.

Trump’s equally wild idea of annexing Canada contributed to the defeat of Canada’s conservative candidate for prime minister in that country’s 2025 parliamentary elections, leaving Trump without a potential ally north of the border.

While some NATO nations are challenging Trump over Greenland, the administration is likely deliberately taunting them. The administration’s National Security Strategy, released two months ago, questioned whether some European countries would remain recognizable and reliable US allies in 20 years, viewing Europe’s “civilizational erasure” [through uncontrolled Muslim immigration —Ed.] as a greater threat to US interests than Russia. Trump aims for “strategic stability” by de-escalating the Russia-Ukraine war, cooperating on nuclear issues, and reassuring Russia that the US won’t expand NATO in a way that threatens Russia.

With China, Trump’s policies have seemed erratic, with ever-changing tariff percentages, but there is method to the madness. The Census Bureau reported that America’s trade deficit with China plummeted to $175 billion in 2025, down from $295 billion in 2024. Trump continues to warn China not to invade Taiwan and has provided Taiwan with a new $11 billion arms deal.

Looking Ahead in 2026

Can the US obtain what it wants from Greenland, mainly military bases and rare earth minerals, through negotiation or by invasion? If by “invasion,” is Trump ready to confront other NATO nations, despite the consequences for the 32-nation alliance formed in 1949?

Can Trump mediate an end to the Russia-Ukraine conflict, or will he walk away from it and leave the two sides to fight to a conclusion, or until they get weary?

Regarding China, Trump understands this is a long game that will outlast his presidency. Two months ago, James Jay Carafano, a leading expert on America’s national security and foreign policy challenges, wrote for GIS, a European-based geopolitical forecaster, that “rather than isolating, defeating, accommodating or overlooking China, Trump will focus on building military deterrence and ‘outcompeting China’ economically, securing a strategic advantage over China in commercial and military space, AI, quantum technologies, life sciences and energy production.”

Conclusion

Year Two — Progress, Risks, and the Road Ahead

As President Trump enters his second year, the results of his policies in economy, politics, and foreign affairs will start to become evident. The administration’s effectiveness in adapting to changing challenges, responding to public opinion, and managing internal and external pressures will influence both short-term outcomes and long-term legacies. In the end, the upcoming year is likely to feature a combination of advancements and uncertainties, requiring attentive monitoring and further analysis.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1096)