“A
cross between a game of chess and a game of chicken.” That’s how former Conservative MP and political commentator Paul Goodman describes the Brexit endgame. “Whoever blinks first has lost.”

With the hourglass quickly emptying as Brexit Day on March 29 approaches, and no deal in sight, the stakes couldn’t be higher, particularly for Britain’s Jewish community. A botched Brexit could well propel a none-too-friendly Jeremy Corbyn into Number 10 Downing Street — and send Britain back to the socialist dark ages.

But for all the sound and fury that enveloped Westminster last week — as Theresa May’s Brexit deal suffered the largest-ever defeat of a bill in Parliament, by a margin of 432-202 — not much has changed. With May’s government having survived a no-confidence vote called by Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, there remain the same three options that existed when EU-UK negotiations ended in November. It’s a choice among a variant of Theresa May’s deal, a no-deal Brexit, and a second referendum possibly leading to no Brexit at all.

Which is the most likely?

“Theresa May appears to be pushing for a tweaked version of her rejected deal, with minor alterations to the so-called Northern Ireland backstop,” says Paul Goodman. “The idea is to vote on it in Parliament and then go to the EU with it.”

The least-palatable option is the idea of a second referendum leading to no Brexit. “I can’t imagine anything more incendiary,” says Goodman. “It would be like saying to voters that you’re too old, white, and ill-educated to decide properly the first time, so vote again.”

Inevitably, rumors are swirling about a snap election to break the deadlock. But even were Theresa May to call one, there is no guarantee this would provide a way out. Coalition governments, once the exception in British politics, have become the norm over the past decade. With the latest YouGov poll placing Labour at 34%, just 5% behind the Conservatives, deadlock could continue. And the specter of Jeremy Corbyn still looms terrifyingly large. Despite his personal unpopularity, the largest plurality of voters (41% according to YouGov) are undecided over who would make the best prime minister.

If a tweaked Brexit deal fails in Parliament, the key question becomes whether Theresa May prefers a no-deal clean break with the EU (ultra-hard Brexit), or an ongoing customs union with the EU (soft Brexit), which would risk splitting the Conservative Party. It’s possible that even May herself doesn’t know the answer to this horrible dilemma.

What is certain is that if Britain’s political captains continue their brawling, the ship of state will by default sail over the Brexit falls on March 29.

 Brexit Food Fight

With 39 bottles shipped overseas every second in 2017, the whiskey industry is worth billions of pounds to the UK treasury. But will whiskey lovers worldwide suffer from a hangover if Brexit goes pear-shaped?

The cheese sections of UK kosher supermarkets feature French Roquefort and Brie, Danish Gouda and Blue, and other international brands. Will a no-deal Brexit give birth to a kosher Camembert from Cornwall?

Brexit may even force the cows to come home. According to a London Board for Shechitah spokesman, most of the country’s shechitah is done locally. But in the event of a no-deal Brexit, the balance will need to be done domestically and not in Poland and Ireland, as is the case now.

(Excerpted from Mishpacha, Issue 745)