Hezbollah

Hezbollah — the Lebanese “Party of G-d” — is much more than a terrorist organization or an armed militia. It’s been described as the world’s most powerful non-state military force, with the capability to target any location in Israel. Formed as a small guerrilla organization in the 1980s, it’s ballooned into a strategic threat of the highest order.

Let’s start with the numbers, which are staggering. According to recent intelligence estimates, Hezbollah’s stockpile includes over 150,000 rockets and missiles. That’s more than ten times the size of its arsenal during the 2006 Second Lebanon War. But it’s not only the quantity — the quality of its munitions has also improved dramatically.

Hezbollah’s stockpile includes precision missiles with a range of hundreds of kilometers. The Iranian Fateh-110 ballistic missile, for example, can reach any location in Israel and is accurate within 100 meters. This enables Hezbollah to threaten critical infrastructure such as airports, power plants, and military facilities.

Hezbollah’s arsenal isn’t limited to missiles. The organization is equipped with advanced anti-aircraft systems, including Russian SA-17 surface-to-air missiles, which could challenge Israel’s air superiority. It also possesses advanced anti-ship missiles such as the Russian-made Yakhont, which could be used to target Israeli oil rigs in the Mediterranean.

In recent years, Hezbollah has developed advanced UAV capabilities. The organization operates suicide and attack drones that can carry dozens of kilos of munitions, enabling it to carry out precise attacks on targets deep inside Israel territory, as well as gather high-quality intelligence.

These capabilities are backed up by sophisticated intelligence and communication systems. With Iran’s help, Hezbollah has built an independent communications network in Lebanon for its own use, using fiber optics and encrypted communications systems. Hezbollah’s intelligence service works closely with the Iranian intelligence services, which are believed to operate their own surveillance posts on behalf of the Revolutionary Guards in southern Lebanon.

As we’ve learned over the past ten months, the scope of Hezbollah’s intelligence gathering is enormous, and includes precise information about military bases and locations of radar facilities and strategic military and civilian infrastructure. Hezbollah recently released high-quality drone footage of military bases and strategic targets such as the Haifa port and chemical plants in the Gulf.

Most formidable is Hezbollah’s network of underground fortifications in southern Lebanon, which stretch over hundreds of kilometers. These tunnels, some of which lie as deep as 80 meters underground, serve as arms depots, command centers, and even missile launching facilities. They allow Hezbollah to conceal its infrastructure and survive massive airstrikes.

These capabilities didn’t develop out of thin air. They’re a product of massive Iranian support. Iran provides not just the weapons, but the technological know-how and training. Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps officers maintain a constant presence in Lebanon to oversee Hezbollah’s activities.

The arms smuggling from Iran to Hezbollah is a story in itself. Iran operates a sophisticated network of smuggling routes. Some of the weapons arrive on civilian flights to Beirut International Airport. Others are smuggled through Syria, taking advantage of the chaos of the civil war. Israel is trying to thwart these activities, including through airstrikes in Syria, but it’s an ongoing game of cat-and-mouse.

Operationally, Hezbollah operates under direct Iranian guidance. Its operational orders come from Quds Force headquarters in Tehran. This includes decisions about when and how to act against Israel. For example, the decision to launch the border raid that sparked the Second Lebanon War in 2006 was made in full coordination with Iran, just like the recent escalation.

Hezbollah functions as more than just a military wing of Iran. The organization has become a major political player in Lebanon. It holds seats in the Lebanese parliament and the government, and operates an extensive social services system. This allows it to effectively control large parts of Lebanon, especially in the south of the country and the suburbs of Beirut.

This control on the ground makes it very difficult for Israel to deal with the threat. Hezbollah disperses its military facilities in densely populated civilian areas, using mosques and schools as arms depots. This will pose a difficult dilemma for the IDF in the event of a conflict — how do you degrade Hezbollah’s military capabilities while minimizing civilian casualties?

Militias in Syria

Another branch of Iran’s axis of evil lies in Syria, Israel’s northeastern neighbor. What began as a strategic alliance between the Assad regime and Iran has led over the past decade to a significant Iranian military presence in Syria, kilometers away from the Israeli border.

The outbreak of the Syrian Civil War in 2011 created an opportunity for Iran to tighten its hold on the country. With Bashar al-Assad’s regime on the brink of collapse, Iran came to his rescue, sending thousands of fighters from the IRGC’s Quds Force and recruiting tens of thousands of Shiite fighters from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. Iran’s intervention not only saved the friendly Assad regime, but effectively turned Syria into an Iranian staging ground.

Today, the Iranian military presence in Syria is estimated at about 3,000 Quds Force personnel providing strategic advice, training, and intelligence, and about 85,000 fighters in various Shiite militias from Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. The largest include Liwa Fatemiyoun, composed of Shiite Afghan fighters, which numbers between 10,000 and 20,000 fighters; the Liwa Zainebiyoun militia, composed of Shiite Pakistani fighters, estimated at 5,000 fighters; the Iraqi Shiite Kata’ib Hezbollah militia, with about 10,000 fighters in Syria; thousands of Lebanese Hezbollah fighters; and a number of local militias such as the National Defense Forces and Liwa al-Baqir, numbering tens of thousands of fighters.

A report by the Atlantic Council think tank reveals that the Iranians are recruiting tens of thousands of local Syrians for pay of about $100 a month, double what Assad’s army pays and four times what the rebels pay. Foreign volunteers to Iranian militias receive even higher wages. Fighters in the Fatemiyoun Brigade receive $450 to $700 a month, while other foreign militias pay $200 to $300 a month. The funds come from a special IRGC budget of a whopping $7.6 billion a year.

These militias provide Iran with trained personnel for operations against Israel. By activating them on its behalf, Iran can maintain the “plausible deniability” it would lose by employing Iranian forces directly. The militias also serve as guinea pigs for testing combat tactics. The experience gained in the fighting in Syria is applied in developing strategies against Israel and building up Iranian military infrastructure in Syria. This includes bases, weapons depots, and intelligence and control systems. Some of this infrastructure is located in disturbing proximity to the Israeli border.

But these numbers are only part of the story. Iran has set up extensive military infrastructure in Syria, including military bases, arms depots, and command and control systems. The threat is multidimensional: First, Iran is trying to open a second front in Syria against Israel. It’s deploying advanced missile systems in Syrian territory, including precision surface-to-surface missiles that can reach anywhere in Israel. Israeli intelligence has identified attempts to deploy Fateh-110 and Zolfaghar missiles in Syria. Both have a range of hundreds of kilometers and an accuracy within a few dozen meters.

Second, Iran is using Syria as a land route for delivering advanced weaponry to Hezbollah in Lebanon. This includes not only missiles, but air defense systems, advanced anti-tank missiles, and technologies for the production of precision weapons. Israel regularly targets these arms deliveries via airstrikes in Syria.

Third, Iran is trying to establish a permanent military presence in the Syrian part of the Golan Heights, recruiting local fighters and establishing military infrastructure in the area. The objective is to build up the capability to carry out raids along the Israeli border. In addition, just as in Lebanon, Iran uses the country as a base for intelligence gathering, operating advanced intelligence-gathering systems, including radio-listening stations and reconnaissance drones.

The Iranian arsenal in Syria is formidable and diverse. In addition to the missiles already mentioned, Iran has deployed Shahed-136 suicide drones and Mohajer-6 combat drones, air defense systems such as the Russian Panchir-S1 system, and Soumar long-range cruise missiles. In addition, it operates an array of unmanned aerial vehicles for intelligence gathering and air strikes, ballistic missiles, heavy artillery rockets such as Fajr-3 and Fajr-5, and a wide range of advanced anti-tank missiles, including Kornets and TOWs.

The Syrian arena demonstrates the complexity of the Iranian threat. This is not (yet) a direct military confrontation, but a long-term struggle over the future of the region. Iran is trying to create a noose around Israel, and Syria is a critical link in that chain.

In recent months, evidence has mounted that Iran is preparing to launch a land attack on Israel using Shiite militias from Syria. Senior Iranian officials have already warned publicly that an Israeli escalation vis-à-vis Lebanon will lead to an intervention, and the Syrian side of the border is buzzing with preparations.

Over the past months, thousands of Shiite fighters from Iraq, Yemen, and other countries in the region have arrived in Syria and taken up positions near the border with Israel, even as Iran has beefed up its own forces in the country and increased the pace of arms deliveries.

Houthis in Yemen

The Houthi rebels, who seized control of broad swaths of Yemen in 2014, have become a key element in Iran’s arsenal. With Iran’s support, what began as a local rebel movement has grown into a key regional player. Iran sees the Houthis as a strategic asset, providing it with a foothold in the southern Arabian Peninsula, on Saudi Arabia’s doorstep, and access to the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait, a critical shipping route between the Red Sea and the Indian Ocean.

Iranian support for the Houthis is wide-ranging, including advanced weaponry, training, military advice, and financial support. The weapons supplied include ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, attack drones, and armed speedboats.

The ballistic missiles the Houthis are equipped with have a range of up to 900 miles (1,500 kilometers), covering the entirety of Israel. They’ve already demonstrated their ability to launch missiles at Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, as well as at vessels in the Gulf of Aden and even Israel.

The attack drones supplied to the Houthis by Iran represent a significant threat, having a proven ability to penetrate advanced air defense systems and hit distant targets. The maritime threat is particularly important for Israel. The Houthis have developed the capabilities to attack ships using anti-ship missiles, speedboats, and naval mines, threatening the Red Sea trade route.

The Houthis have even upgraded their intelligence capabilities. They operate advanced radar systems and intelligence-gathering devices, enabling them to detect vessels and aircraft in the area. And beyond military activities, the Houthis serve as another link in Iran’s smuggling network, helping ship weapons to other terrorist organizations in the region, including Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

The Iranians have supplied the Houthi rebels with advanced weapons systems adapted to the struggle against Israel, including advanced air defense systems and long-range cruise missiles. Besides supplying them with their own arms, the Iranians sending them experts in arms production so they can manufacture their own.

Iran’s strategy in Yemen is multidimensional. First, it allows Iran to open another front against Israel. Second, it gives it leverage over Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Third, it allows it to impact world trade routes.

At the same time, the Iranian presence in Yemen has brought Israel closer to the Gulf states, providing a common basis for security cooperation as reflected in the Abraham Accords.

Militias in Iraq

Since the fall of the Saddam Hussein regime in 2003, Iran has taken advantage of the resulting vacuum to build up a significant presence in the country, mainly through local Shiite militias.

Collectively known as Quwwat al-Hashd ash-Sha’bi, or the “Popular Mobilization Forces,” the militias have become a powerful force in Iraq, politically and militarily. They number about 150,000 fighters, organized into dozens of different groups. Among the largest are Kata’ib Hezbollah, Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq, and Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba.

Iran supplies these militias with advice, training, equipment, and funding. The militias are equipped with advanced weapons, including short-range ballistic missiles, rockets, and attack drones.

For Iran, the proxy militias in Iraq serve several purposes: First, they give Iran influence in Iraqi politics. The militias are politically active, with representation in the Iraqi parliament and government. This provides Iran with powerful leverage in Baghdad.

Second, they bring Iranian military capabilities closer to Israel. The militias have proven their ability to launch long-range missiles and drones at targets in Saudi Arabia and Israel, as well as putting pressure on the American presence in Iraq and the region. Over the past years, the militias have carried out dozens of attacks on American bases in Iraq.

And most importantly, they’re a component of Iran’s smuggling network, serving as a key land route for weapons deliveries from Iran to Syria and Lebanon.

The military capabilities of the Iraqi Shiite militias have undergone a significant upgrade in recent years. They possess a wide range of weapons, including ballistic missiles such as the Zolfaghar and Fateh-110, which have ranges of hundreds of kilometers each; heavy rocket artillery systems such as the Falaq-1 and Falaq-2; attack drones including advanced models such as the Shahed-136 and the Mohajer-6; and long-range cruise missiles such as the Quds-2.

The militias have also developed advanced intelligence and electronic warfare capabilities, with Iranian support. They operate radar systems and intelligence-gathering devices that cover much of the Middle East.

The threat to Israel from the militias in Iraq is real and direct, as the current war has shown, and gives Iran the option to open another front against Israel in the event of a broad conflict. Moreover, their presence in Iraq allows Iran to complete the “Shiite Crescent” running from Tehran through Baghdad and Damascus to Beirut.

The Shiite militias in Iraq also challenge Israel’s normalization efforts with Arab countries, serving as a powerful threat to other Arab countries interested in drawing closer to Israel.

Shiite countries, Africa, and South America

Besides Hezbollah, the Houthis, and the Iraqi proxy militias, Iran funds and supplies a wide variety of terror groups throughout the Middle East and beyond.

In Afghanistan, Iran has cultivated ties with Shiite groups and even some Taliban factions, with aim of promoting Iranian interests in the country. Iran recruited the Afghan Shiite Fatemiyoun Brigade, which fought in Syria and other theaters.

Iran also maintains ties with local Shiite groups in Pakistan, recruiting the Pakistani Shiite fighters of the Zainebiyoun Brigade, which saw action in Syria and elsewhere. The Iranian presence in Pakistan is a long-running source of tension with the Pakistani government.

Iran backs Shiite opposition groups in Bahrain, providing them with training, funding, and sometimes weapons. The goal is to destabilize Bahrain’s Sunni regime and increase Iranian influence in the Persian Gulf.

Iran is trying to expand its influence in the Caucasus as well, forming ties with various groups in Armenia and Azerbaijan by taking advantage of the region’s ethnic and religious divisions. The Iranian presence in the Caucasus is a strategic challenge for Israel, which has close ties with Azerbaijan.

Iran’s tentacles have even extended into Africa. One example is Sudan, where Iran has tried to use as a transit point for arms smuggling into Gaza. In Nigeria and other West African countries, Iran funds Shiite groups to expand its religious and political influence.

In Latin America, Iran maintains ties with countries such as Venezuela and Nicaragua, using them as a base for intelligence operations and circumventing international sanctions. There’s also evidence of Iranian attempts to establish terrorist cells in Latin America to act against Israeli or American targets.

Iran’s proxy strategy has allowed it to expand its influence well beyond its own borders, gain “strategic depth,” make it possible to pressure or attack rival powers while maintaining plausible deniability, and above all, create a global network of supporters ready to help Iran in a variety of ways, from intelligence gathering to carrying out terror attacks.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1023)