An insider’s guide to politics

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amed pollster Nate Silver predicted she would be the front-runner in 2028.

YouGov has her net favorability at +61, one of the highest levels of popularity for any elected official.

Yale University has her coming in second place in 2028.

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is drawing massive crowds and breaking fundraising records, and stirring media speculation that she is the next face of the Democratic Party. This is seemingly 180-degree turn for the Democrats, who in the span of 18 months have gone from supporting an 81-year-old centrist president to backing a 35-year-old socialist to be party leader for over 45 million Americans.

Not all Democrats are excited at the prospect of AOC leading their party. Many warn that failure to nominate a moderate, like Pennsylvania governor Josh Shapiro, will consign the Democratic Party to the wilderness for many more years.

Like a troubled friend or family member who shows up to a party not exactly himself, the fractured and weakened Democratic Party is reeling and looking to make the best appearance despite their current condition.

“AOC for President” is a left-wing mask on an identity crisis facing the Democratic Party.

The Identity Crisis

The Democrats’ identity crisis began not after Trump’s recent victory but before that — after the 2016 election. The Democratic Party was shell-shocked. I didn’t speak to one Democratic strategist then who had predicted a Trump victory. The party was widely criticized for allowing a businessman with no electoral experience to defeat their name-brand candidate. For close to two years, the party wrung its hands and waited for the 2018 midterm elections to reclaim victory.

It came earlier than they thought with the exciting primary election of AOC. This followed with “the Squad” and an entire movement opposed to Trump and the traditional moderate voices within the Democratic Party. This group was younger, social-media savvy, and drawing crowds and attention. AOC and the Squad were a temporary mask for the party until 2020 creeped up.

Then the party returned to its more moderate roots and made Joe Biden the face of unity. But the nightmare recurred for the Democrats this past November, when Trump won again. The Democratic Party is searching for an identity, and many are wondering if Trump’s right-wing agenda is triggering a left-wing shift with a candidate like AOC.

But Why the Mask?

Why do the Democrats insist on wearing a mask? Why not simply pick their most popular candidate as their leader? Why not pick Kamala Harris? That would give them the face and the voice to oppose Trump in the 2026 midterms. Harris remains popular and her name identification is still higher than any other Democrat.

There are multiple issues in the way of that. First, the lack of a national election leaves no formal electoral process now choosing the Democratic leader until 2028. Second, whoever is taking the mantle of leadership must choose between fighting Trump or compromising with him, and that’s easier said than done. Finally, the electorate now won’t be the same four years from now; preferences and demographics will change rapidly by the time of the 2028 election. It is impossible for a candidate to position themselves this early.

These factors make it challenging for the Democratic Party to designate their leader. Is it Senator Chuck Schumer, who compromised with Trump and angered a majority of the Democratic base? Is it Gavin Newsom, who will no longer be California’s governor in 18 months and thus will have no electoral platform from which to oppose Trump? Is it Pete Buttigieg, who was once a new face in the Democratic Party but now has the baggage of being a Biden appointee? The electorate may have zero interest in that association in 2028.

Moderates in the Wings

When Richard Nixon lost to JFK in 1960, he wrote a book called Six Crises about his political career and the lessons he learned. He gives an enlightening insight that can help us now: “There is an old political axiom that where a vacuum exists, it will be filled by the nearest or strongest power.”

New Jersey’s Senator Cory Booker just did that. Schumer compromised with Trump, while Booker held the longest filibuster in history to oppose MAGA policies. He watched his favorability and profile soar as a direct result.

Senator Bernie Sanders is also doing that. He is leading an “end the oligarchy tour” to give Democratic voters something actionable they can do now to oppose Trump.

AOC is joining Bernie Sanders on his tour, but she is picking and choosing her battles more deftly than when she was only the Squad leader. AOC endorsed Biden, has distanced herself from the Democratic Socialists of America, and has toned down her attacks against fellow Democrats.

These are the mask-wearers now, but we are missing a critical face in the Democratic Party — the moderate candidate. Last I checked, Bernie Sanders hadn’t won the Democratic presidential nomination any time he ran. Moderate Democrats have consistently won presidential elections for decades and have consistently defeated the left-wing side of their party.

Moderate governors such as Josh Shapiro and Maryland’s Wes Moore are both facing reelection campaigns they will likely win, which would allow either of them to claim a mandate to be the party’s president nominee. There will be a new governor in California who could easily claim a mandate to be president especially if he or she is a moderate. The moderates wait in the wings.

My Prediction

Two masks will battle in the lead-up to 2028.

If AOC was a response to Trump in 2018, why can’t she be the response to MAGA in 2028?

A Clinton-Obama moderate is what the Democratic Party needs to return to power, and a sitting Democratic governor like Shapiro is likely the answer.

Right now, AOC looks to be locking up the mantle of leadership from the left-wing side of the party faster than any other candidate in modern-day politics. Shapiro, Moore, or some other moderate Democratic governor may likely win it from the other side of the party, but the left-wing has a massive head start.

FEARLESS FORECAST

Klobuchar Rises to Number Two: With the retirement of Illinois’s Senator Dick Durbin, there is now jockeying going on for the number two spot in the Democratic Senate leadership. This is a critical role — the aging Chuck Schumer won’t be majority leader forever. Whoever wins this spot will likely be the next in line. My prediction is Minnesota’s Senator Amy Klobuchar. She’s always been a savvy legislator and excellent with the press. It’s a gut feeling, but let’s go with the gut.

Town Halls Become Increasingly Irrelevant: More press this past month on the increasingly contentious town halls that members of Congress are facing in their districts. I predict that this is all going to come to a quick crash. Members of Congress will simply not do these anymore. Face it, most constituents don’t attend these events, and most incumbents reason that they can get elected without showing up at these forums, which increasingly have crowds designed to antagonize them.

 (Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1059)