An insider’s guide to politics

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mericans hate taxes. Ask a Boston colonial. Just be sure to catch him before he launches a crate of tea into the harbor in disgust at the British tea tax. Hating taxes is part of our founding. This is why any discussion at increasing taxes draws patriotic ire and any discussion of cutting taxes creates a patriotic fervor.

Which is why it’s so surprising that we haven’t yet had tax relief, almost at the halfway mark in 2025. Didn’t the Republicans just win the White House, Senate, and House of Representatives? Tick, tock. What’s taking so long to pass those exciting tax cuts that Trump promised and that most Americans voted for?

Imagine a ten-pound mason jar in your closet worth at least $150, full of dimes, pennies, and nickels. If this jar falls over, you have thousands of coins rolling everywhere. One by one you pick them up. Without this painstaking effort, you can’t take this jar to the bank. This is analogous to the tedious but necessary process of tax policy. Let’s take a quick look at what pennies, dimes, and nickels must be picked up to get you your tax relief.

Making Cents

There are so many pennies to collect, and the bank closes in 15 minutes! The biggest issue for the Republicans is tackling the practical reality of a ticking clock. Looming over their desire for tax relief is their thin majority in the House of Representatives. Midterm elections are in 18 months. Add to this that they are past the 100-day mark — when the initial momentum of the election victory delivers the major priorities — and they are simply running out of time.

What stays and what goes? Speaker Johnson has said that he wants a $4 trillion tax plan. Will this package include Trump’s removal of taxes on tips? Will it include the child tax credit? What expenditures will Republicans cut to pay for the tax bill? As the clock ticks, not every penny can be picked up off the floor, nor can every one of the thousands of ideas be included.

Nickels and Salt

You need family to help you pick up as many coins as you can. Without their help, you simply won’t be able to cash in. While you’re collecting the pennies, another family member must collect the nickels, but he just sits there demanding that he get a cut of the jar.

This is what’s going on with a critical part of the tax bill. The Republicans can’t pass this bill without the help of every member of their caucus. Remember, this is why they insisted Elise Stefanik rejoin the House: They can’t afford to lose even one vote. New York Republicans know this and are insisting that the tax bill will get their vote only if the bill lifts the cap on the state and local tax (SALT) deduction, which severely limits blue states from deducting their high state and local taxes.

When dealing with a difficult family member, compromise (or annoyance) would rule the day, and the same will happen with the tax bill. Either they cut a deal with these blue state Republicans, or they get annoyed, and it severely limits their ability to provide robust tax relief.

Dimes and Trump’s Tax Increase

The Canadian ten-cent coin looks an awful lot like the American dime, which is why it’s impossible to finish picking up all the coins after a friend walks in and dumps thousands of Canadian coins.

Trump is doing this with the tax bill by proposing that a tax hike go into effect for wealthy Americans to pay for these tax cuts. This is an unprecedented proposal from any Republican, much less a Republican president. Republicans hate even talking about raising taxes, because they believe that costs them elections. George H.W. Bush’s famous promise, “Read my lips: No new taxes,” was then followed by a big tax increase. Many believe it cost him reelection.

Republicans are terrified of new taxes, especially with the upcoming midterm elections. Trump’s proposal to tax wealthy Americans will indefinitely delay the collection process.

Bottom Line

I’m hearing that there is real nervousness in the GOP about delivering a major tax reform package. Yes, something will pass. But will it be large and exciting enough to save the House? The Republicans erred in not moving this tax package during Trump’s first 100 days, when they had momentum. Every day that goes by makes it harder to accomplish all their goals. —

FEARLESS FORECAST

Scorecard:

Good Pick

I talked about this in a previous column, and now we are seeing it in action: Joe Biden is now officially on tour to reclaim his legacy. Pushing back against Biden’s spin are numerous books documenting his cognitive decline and its impact on his presidency. Former first families don’t admit defeat easily. Biden and his team will continue to tell their story while the Democratic Party continues to pretend that his presidency is in the past.

Bad Pick

My Vivek Ramaswamy pick continues to look bad. He continues to have great polling for his Ohio governor’s race. I say it looks bad, but I haven’t accepted defeat yet. Attorney General Dave Yost is still a formidable candidate, and we have to watch this more closely as it progresses.

This Week’s Prediction:

MaRjorie Taylor GreenE still runs for Senate

The radical right-wing conspiracy theorist member of Congress has passed on a chance to run for the Senate. I predict she still runs. She needs and wants a larger platform, and I think she reverses course as the election gets closer.

Democratic National Committee (DNC) boots David Hogg

The far-left vice chair is in an active and open fight with Chairman Ken Martin on whether to primary or not primary current Democrats. Hogg wants to primary, and Martin doesn’t. I believe the DNC has had enough of Hogg and asks or pushes him to step down. The Democratic Party can simply not afford messy primaries with a rare opportunity to reclaim the House in 2026.

 (Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1061)