With 100 days to go can the Democrats regroup and recoup? Four experts assess the coming Trump-Harris clash

Project coordinator: Gedalia Guttentag

The emergency rooms must be filling up with victims of whiplash — the many Americans who are following this head-spinning presidential election.

F

irst came Donald Trump’s conviction on May 30, which made his reelection that much more of a tough sell among independents. On June 27, the narrative shifted dramatically, as Joe Biden self-combusted at the first debate, with a halting performance laying bare his decline. Cue weeks of Democratic infighting, as the media and party barons tried to force him out while Team Biden refused to let go.

Biden’s campaign was squeezed for cash and the big beasts of Democratic politics — Nancy Pelosi, Chuck Schumer, and Barack Obama — were gearing up for a brutal eviction effort when attention suddenly swung back to Donald Trump. On July 13, an assassin came within a whisker of killing the Republican candidate. The violence had the effect of relieving pressure on the Biden campaign — but only temporarily.

Joe Biden’s retreat to recover from Covid — at the same time his opponent hit the campaign trail, immediately after surviving an attempt on his life — highlighted Biden’s fading.

Everyone could see it coming, and yet no one could be sure it would come at all. The lifelong tenacity — verging on obduracy — that had earned him the presidency prevented Biden from seeing the obvious. And so, the president’s dramatic announcement on Sunday that he was ending his run blindsided many, notably his own staffers.

Now that he’s fallen on his own sword, the savage attacks on Biden from within his own party have turned into acclaim for his statesmanship and patriotism. Joe Biden is well on the way to canonization as St. Joseph of Rehoboth Beach. But having anointed Vice President Kamala Harris as his successor, he’s now yesterday’s man, a one-term lame duck.

With about 100 days to go until the elections, attention has returned full force to the Democrats and their path forward.

Despite weeks of chatter about alternative candidates, it’s looking all but certain that Democrats will anoint Harris as Biden’s successor, despite an underwhelming performance as vice president. Barack Obama’s cool reception of her candidacy is a sign both of his ongoing influence in the party, and genuine fears about Harris’s failings as a candidate. With net approval ratings of -17% after four years in office, she’s underwater. For comparison, her predecessor Mike Pence registered at -8%, and Biden himself polled -5% at the same point.

Those numbers don’t bode well for Kamala, whose well-known communication problems will provide rich pickings for the Trump-Vance attack machine.

But this campaign isn’t done and dusted yet; the ping-pong effect will doubtless produce more upheavals on the road to November 6.

For a start, the Trump campaign needs to decide how much to fire up the MAGA base and how far to swing to the middle in a bid to sweep up centrists skeptical of Harris.

With a strong dose of chutzpah spiced with gall, Kamala Harris’s operation has already gone on the attack focusing on Donald Trump’s age — an interesting approach given that until this week, she was a major enabler of the Biden team’s age-related coverup. Looking ahead, the Kamala campaign probably has to worry more about their candidate’s history of flubs and policy reversals.

So as Kamala Harris steps out into the full glare of a presidential campaign she didn’t see coming a few weeks ago, the question is whether she’ll emerge as a more substantive figure now that she’s on her own. Will Democrats be able to rally around a new ticket with so little time to spare until the elections? And having lost their dream opponent — a Biden visibly unfit for four more years — are Republicans able to capitalize on the dramatic upending of the 2024 race?

With DC scrambling to assess the fallout on the race, we asked four commentators to weigh in on the new political landscape.

Our panelists:

BINYAMIN ROSE,

former news editor and currently editor-at-large for Mishpacha, is a popular commentator on US and Israeli political affairs.

MAURY LITWACK

is the founder and CEO of the Teach Coalition, one of the nation’s largest faith-based lobbying organizations in education funding advocacy.

STU LOESER

is a Democratic communications strategist who has worked on three presidential campaigns as well as congressional and gubernatorial campaigns. His media strategy firm helps companies in crisis.

TEVI TROY

is a presidential historian and former White House aide, currently a senior fellow at the Bipartisan Policy Center.

If you could look into a crystal ball and predict the outcome of this election given the current dynamics, who wins? And why?

BINYAMIN ROSE

Trump is still the favorite in the race, no matter whom he runs against. He has the experience of the presidency behind him, is still popular with his base, and has a more professionally seasoned campaign team than the last two times he ran. He’s also coming off a convention that unified the party. Democrats may be breathing a sigh of relief that Biden dropped out, but they will be campaigning from behind and scrambling.

MAURY LITWACK

The race favors Trump. It is unprecedented to start and win a race in 100 days. That’s about how long the vice president has to mount a campaign. In that time frame, she has to win over voters who don’t know her and make the case against Trump. This is a tremendous task with limited window of time.

STU LOESER

None of the old dynamics are relevant, as almost everything changed overnight. For four years, the Republicans have been demonizing “Sleepy Joe” and jumping on every jumbled syntax or other slip as evidence that Biden was unfit. They were right that, at least on many days, Donald Trump was a bit sharper than President Biden, who forgets names, confuses countries, rambles, and loses his train of thought when speaking. But Donald Trump does every one of those things too, and it no longer matters a whit that Biden does. This week was historic for two reasons: A sitting president put country over self, and Donald Trump is now guaranteed to be the oldest party nominee ever in American history, with the Democrats backing someone a generation younger. There’s a saying in politics, and in life: Be careful what you wish for, because you just might get it. The Republicans started this ball rolling, and they just might get run over and squashed by that same ball as it picks up more and more speed.

TEVI TROY

The race has definitely changed. Until Sunday, July 21 — destined to be a famous date in presidential history — this race was about a diminished Joe Biden versus a still energetic, although not much younger, Donald Trump. The question now is which side will define the race going forward: Trump will try to make it about Harris’s unpopularity and poor performance as vice president, while Harris will try to make it about Trump’s legal troubles and her youth relative to Trump’s age.

Donald Trump has said that Kamala Harris is a weaker candidate than Joe Biden. Do you believe that’s true?

BINYAMIN ROSE

The talk I heard on the floor at the Republican National Convention is that the GOP preferred to face Biden, as they viewed him as the weakest candidate. I overheard a Republican congressman telling a colleague that right-wing news sites were doing a disservice to the GOP by knocking Biden, which only added to the pressure Democrats felt to force him out of the race. Harris checks some boxes that Biden didn’t. She’s a woman, black, and South Asian, but that’s not all that novel. Hillary was a woman and didn’t win, we’ve already had a black president in Obama, and the Asian vote won’t win the Democrats any swing states.

MAURY LITWACK

I think that’s simply messaging for his base. We don’t know yet how she will resonate with voters. The image of her is somewhat muted as her schedule and image have been managed by the Biden team. What we’ve seen to date isn’t necessarily who Harris is or how she will likely campaign.

STU LOESER

She’s not, but I applaud the Republicans’ solid work constantly lowering expectations about Democrats, because that makes it even easier to exceed them. They should keep it up.

TEVY TROY

Harris is unpopular. She’s a poor communicator and has had persistent staff problems. It certainly makes sense that Trump would fear her less than Biden, who was a formidable opponent in 2020.

As Kamala Harris moves to wrap up her nomination, and the weeks-long chatter about open conventions and dark horse candidates seems to be fading, it’s worth revisiting what looks like the road untraveled. Was all the noise about a Michelle Obama candidacy just wishful thinking, and why did no alternative process unfold?

BINYAMIN ROSE

Identity politics is important to the Democrats, but beating Trump is their highest priority. Biden’s endorsement of Harris carries a lot of weight. Michelle Obama was never a serious option. She wasn’t enthralled with DC life as a first lady, so why would she want to be president? She has no qualifications other than checking some fantasy boxes, and Harris checks the same ones.

MAURY LITWACK

As you say, there won’t be an open convention scenario. Harris is wrapping up the nomination. With just 100 days to campaign, imagine spending the next 30 fighting over the nomination. It’s just not enough time. But, for the readers’ sake, I think Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is a compelling story from a swing state. Michelle Obama was never a conceivable candidate. She might poll well, but she’s never campaigned under her own name. The stakes are higher when it’s a reality. This was simply good spin by whoever represents her in order to boost her image and keep her name in the paper.

STU LOESER

Regarding Michelle Obama, even before Sunday, there was a greater chance of Mayor Giuliani switching his party registration back to the Democrats — yes, he was a Dem for a long time — and seeking the Democratic nomination than Mrs. Obama seeking or accepting it.

TEVY TROY

The Democratic obsession with identity politics is definitely Harris’s biggest asset going into this nominating contest. Democrats may indeed be afraid to risk supplanting the first black female vice president, but open nominations don’t come around very often. An ambitious politician may not want to wait as long as eight years for the next opportunity to lead the party, identity politics notwithstanding.

Regarding Michelle Obama, she’s repeatedly said that she is not interested in politics. Even before Harris wrapped up the nomination, I would have found it hard to believe that Obama would go against that vow to supplant the first black female vice president’s quest for her party’s nomination.

Suddenly elevated from vice president to presidential candidate, what will Harris be looking for as her Veep pick?

BINYAMIN ROSE

If Harris wins the presidential nomination, Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is a possibility, and some people have mentioned J.B. Pritzker, governor of Illinois. Andy Beshear of Kentucky is a VP possibility because he is a popular Democratic governor in a very red state. California governor Gavin Newsom has the same problem that Marco Rubio did with Trump — you can’t have two running mates who hail from the same home state.

MAURY LITWACK

I assume that a swing state governor such as Whitmer (MI) or Shapiro (PA) is most appealing. But Mishpacha readers like predictions, so I’m going to predict Kentucky governor Andy Bashear, who just won reelection. Democrats need to learn to win in the South and Bashear knows how to.

STU LOESER

Someone who can help her make the strongest possible case against the Republican ticket and also bring along some voters that she might not already have. There are at least six Democratic governors who would each make fantastic vice-presidential candidates.

TEVI TROY

If Harris can win the nomination, she will be looking for someone more popular than she, more competent than she, and from a battleground state. However, somebody who has all those characteristics may wonder why they should be second fiddle to Harris and not seek the top job for themselves.

Is this turn of events an existential crisis for the Democratic Party in the long term, or will they use this as an opportunity to course-correct and move forward?

BINYAMIN ROSE

Biden dropping out is a relief and an advantage for the Democrats. It’s created some chaos, but it’s not a crisis, nor is it existential. America’s two-party system is too well established for either of the big two parties to disappear.

MAURY LITWACK

Short term, this may prove a crisis, but the Democratic Party long term will be better situated than the Republicans. This is only the second time since 1992 that a Clinton, Obama, or Biden has not been at the top of the ticket. They have an active bench of rising stars who are now taking over their party and the torch is being officially passed.

STU LOESER

As I said, there are at least six Democratic governors who could each make fantastic vice-presidential candidates right now for different reasons: Governors Andy Beshear of Kentucky, Roy Cooper of North Carolina, Gavin Newsom of California, Wes Moore of Maryland, Josh Shapiro of Pennsylvania, and Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan. I listed those in alphabetical order by last name, not in any ranked order. There are at least as many strong options in the US Senate, but in a 50-50 country and a Senate that isn’t likely to have a particularly huge majority for the next two years, some of those present too much of a legislative branch risk. That’s about a dozen extraordinary candidates for the immediate future, and it doesn’t even begin to count the scores of people currently doing something other than being a governor or senator. I’m a particular fan of the House of Representatives’ most effective advocate for Israel and against anti-Semitism, my local congressman, Ritchie Torres. Torres in 2032, you saw it here first!

TEVI TROY

The Democrats need to resolve their internal dispute about whether they want to be the Democrats of old or the party of the woke. This fight was likely shaping up to be the defining battle of the 2028 nominating contest, but Biden’s withdrawal may have now accelerated that timetable.

How will the dynamics of the race affect Israel, and what position will a next-generation Democratic Party leader take?

BINYAMIN ROSE

The handwriting has been on the wall for Israel with the Democrats ever since Obama took office. Almost half of Congressional Democrats belong to the party’s progressive caucus. No Democrat will totally walk away from the ongoing strategic military and intelligence coordination with Israel, but Biden was one of the last Democrats with an old-line, visceral connection with Israel. US military aid to Israel will come with more strings attached, no matter which party wins the White House. Israel has to adapt.

MAURY LITWACK

It’s too early to tell. Biden had his clear positions, both things he did that people loved and things they hated, but a poll I saw out of Pennsylvania recently still had his overall Jewish support higher than Trump’s. Harris isn’t known to the same degree. Will the Biden record on Israel carry over to Harris, and can she say that story to Jewish voters compellingly in 100 days?

STU LOESER

Vice President Harris has been clear that America’s support for Israel is, in her words (which are the same words that others use), ironclad.

TEVI TROY

This development is likely bad for Israel, because as critical as Biden has been of Israel, he is still of the generation that feels the need to proclaim that he is pro-Israel. The next generation of Democrats feel no such obligation, and most of them would be even more critical of Israel than Biden has been.

In retrospect, does Trump’s J.D. Vance pick still make sense after the shakeup of this race?

BINYAMIN ROSE

Trump’s pick of Vance, as I pointed out in my wrap-up of the RNC in this week’s edition, is based on the fact that they are politically ideological soulmates. Vance had the strong endorsement of Trump’s son Don Jr., who said in Milwaukee that he doesn’t want to choose personnel for his father, but he wants veto power to make sure no key cabinet officials or other top-level appointees undermine the Trump agenda. Trump also picked Vance because of his talent for dealing with hostile media, so I don’t think that Trump is second-guessing his choice.

MAURY LITWACK

A VP rarely means that much for the actual race. I don’t think the current dynamic changed much of Trump’s calculus on why Vance was a good pick.

STU LOESER

Yes, it does. Game recognizes game, and I can tell you that Senator Vance was and remains a super-smart choice for Donald Trump.

TEVI TROY

Based on the reporting of the internal dynamics of the Trump decision, Trump considered a variety of other factors, but some of his closest advisors, including his son Don, were insistent on Vance as the VP pick. I’m not sure that dynamic would have changed, even if they had known about the Biden withdrawal.

Will Trump’s path to victory be paved by doubling down on MAGA outrage or by modulating his tone to attract centrists?

MAURY LITWACK

His current plan seems to be to double down and get his base out. Is that a path to victory? That question is very much dependent on how Harris does with centrists. Biden wasn’t appealing to them, so the current Trump strategy made sense. But should Harris appeal to centrists, it will make little sense for Trump to continue to only consolidate his base.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1021)