With a weak incumbent and a potential strong challenger, New York’s GOP hopes to claim the governor’s mansion in 2026

T

he GOP elephant, still licking its chops after the big 2024 White House win, is surveying the political landscape for its next big prize. It could be the New York State Executive Mansion, if Republicans can find the right person. And one highly visible member of Congress is making inroads.

“The 2026 election is a unique opportunity to take New York State,” Republican operative David Catalfamo, president of Capital Public Strategies and staffer for the last Republican governor, George Pataki, tells Mishpacha. “Kathy Hochul’s approval ratings are historically low, and she is upside down among independents. There’s a clear path to victory, and the right candidate can make it happen.”

Who is the right candidate? Congressman Mike Lawler of Rockland County is openly considering a run, and Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman is seen as a likely contender. But Trump holds the trump card: Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, representative of northern New York’s 21st district and MAGA starlet.

In a Siena College poll released last Tuesday, Stefanik led theoretical Republican primary candidates with 35%, while Lawler and Blakeman had 22% and 11%, respectively.

“But all three are great candidates,” another strategist told us. “Ultimately, the winner will come down to Trump’s endorsement.”

Playing the Ace

Republican strategists see Stefanik, 40, as their ace in the hole, and they are already wrestling with the question of when best to deploy her. Tapped by President Trump earlier this year for the UN ambassadorship, he pulled her nomination to “shore up Republicans’ shaky majority in Congress.” Are they willing to risk her for a shot at New York State… or do they even need to?

Catalfamo thinks so. “NY-21 is not at risk in a normal election,” he explains. “Trump was only nervous about losing it in a special election — when anything can happen — especially as he was pushing across unappealing tariff policies.”

Stefanik has won her six elections by double digits, and Trump carried the district by 30.

Another Republican strategist, who declined to be named, told Mishpacha that Stefanik’s UN appointment wasn’t pulled because she was outstanding, but because she was outmaneuvered. Anthony Constantino, CEO of the Sticker Mule printing company, has hired longtime Trump whisperer Roger Stone to help him succeed Stefanik when she leaves her seat in Congress. Seeing that Constantino would lose a special election, Stone talked Trump into keeping Stefanik home until Constantino is better positioned.

Either way, Lawler’s district is far more vulnerable than Stefanik’s staunch GOP district that sprawls from Albany to Canada.

Aiming Higher

What would Stefanik’s angle be, and what is best for her career? After losing the UN nod, GOP bigwigs tossed her a bone by crowning her “chairwoman of House Republican Leadership,” a ceremonial title with no meaning. She had also been promised her old job as House Republican Conference chair, and a seat on the House Intelligence Committee, but she’s still waiting.

According to a New York Times report, when Speaker Mike Johnson needed her vote for legislation, she raised the issue.

“I’m dealing with a lot of angry members,” Johnson said.

“And I’m the angriest of all,” Stefanik shot back.

The congresswoman spun her UN snub as “taking one for the team,” meanwhile increasing her base of support across New York and raising $10 million. She told reporters in early May that she is considering a run for governor, saying she wanted to “fire” Kathy Hochul over her liberal policies and overspending. She announced plans for a “listening tour” across the state.

“It is clear we need a new leader to step up, bring common sense and deliver results,” Stefanik said. “The issues that I hear not just in my district, but all across the state, people are struggling. The polling shows that we can win and save New York.”

Steve Bannon, though, is vocally touting Stefanik as future Speaker of the House. To him, she is entering her prime, and leaving Congress at this stage would be foolhardy.

“All options are open for her,” Catalfamo says. “She can be whatever she wants to be.”

Governor’s Gamble

In MAGA eyes, New York is in desperate need of a Republican governor. Its state budget has ballooned from $100 billion two decades ago to $254 billion for the upcoming fiscal year. Radical left policies, like bail reform that puts criminals back on the street for free, are becoming increasingly unpopular.

Long considered out-of-reach for the red team, the Empire State has not seen a conservative governor since Pataki left office in 2006. But frum election strategist Michael Fragin points out that indicators are ripe for a Republican coup.

“New York shifted more to the right than any other state in 2024, with all counties moving in that direction, and Trump climbing by six percentage points,” he says. “Overall, the state saw an 11% to 14% shift. Even in 2022, Republican candidate Lee Zeldin did far better than expected, winning 47% of the vote and helping three congressional seats flip red.”

Changing demographics also impact the election, as the population shifts from upstate to downstate areas, bringing more Republicans to New York City and Long Island.

“To win, a Republican must carry at least 35% of New York City, 45% of Westchester, 55% of the Hudson Valley, 60% of Long Island, and close to 70% of the rural rest of the state,” Fragin explains.

Can it be done? “Kathy Hochul seems to be doing everything in her power to make it so,” Catalfamo says. “She is an extraordinarily weak candidate.”

No Democrat has signaled intent to primary her, although pro-Israel Rep. Ritchie Torres’s name has been bandied about. She holds only 26% of the likely vote in a primary, with a whopping 55% saying they will hedge their bets.

Much will depend on how Trump’s policies play out over the next year.

Traditionally, off-year governor’s races skew against the party holding the White House, but that dynamic has been diminishing, with opposing waves getting steadily smaller during midterms. If the president’s groundbreaking economic and diplomatic policies fail to produce tangible results by 2026, odds will get longer for a win, and expect to see Stefanik hold her cards for the long term by staying in Congress. But in the event Trump tariffs trigger trade triumphs, and he manages to end some wars without starting new ones, we may see the inverse effect.

The New York City mayoral race in 2024 could also strongly influence the odds for Stefanik. If a far-left candidate grabs City Hall, traditional wisdom predicts a rebound advantage for the GOP in 2026, as conservative-leaning voters will be motivated to get out and participate.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1064)