Canada’s Conservatives are poised to take power as Justin Trudeau’s career tails off

PHOTO: SHUTTERSTOCK\ DROP OF LIGHT

Political careers generally end in failure, and Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau’s trajectory is a perfect example. Elected in 2015 with a huge parliamentary majority on a wave of personal popularity, his party now trails in the polls by 20-plus points, and he’s facing mounting calls to step down and make way for a successor to stop the party’s complete destruction at the next election, in late 2025.

His pool of allies is shrinking rapidly. More than 60 of his fellow 153 Liberal MPs are calling for his resignation, and his tottering premiership was dealt another blow when his finance minister and deputy prime minister, Chrystia Freeland, dramatically resigned, citing policy disagreements amid attempts to shunt her into a different department. Facing dire poll ratings and his own party turning on him, Justin Trudeau’s political career is nearing its end.

Meanwhile, Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre has successfully capitalized on public anger at the Trudeau administration’s failings, vowing to “build the homes, fix the budget, stop the crime, and axe the tax.” He looks poised to become the next Canadian prime minister. For an inside look at the people and politics behind Trudeau’s demise, and what a Conservative government might mean for Canada, Mishpacha spoke to Anthony Koch of the Quebec-based AK Strategies public affairs firm, who also served as a top aide to Pierre Poilievre.

When did it all start to go wrong for Trudeau?

Trudeau won a massive majority in 2015, but in 2019 and 2021, he only achieved minority wins. Both times, he got fewer votes than the Conservative Party, even though he won in terms of seats. He started off very popular, partly because the Conservatives had been in power for ten years. His decline started in 2018 when he became embroiled in a corruption scandal.

Housing prices are out of control. During Trudeau’s tenure, the cost of housing has more than doubled. Toronto and Vancouver are in the top five most expensive housing markets in the world. We’re producing fewer homes per capita than in the 1970s, but the population is many times more than it was then. Canada experienced very high inflation, and people’s top-line concern is cost of living. There’s also a backlash against woke culture, which the Liberals really doubled down on, and now people are fed up with it.

Young people helped Trudeau get elected. Current polling shows Poilievre’s strongest base is the young. The younger you are, the more likely you are to vote Conservative.

What’s been Trudeau’s biggest policy mistake?

Trudeau’s legacy will be that he shattered Canada’s cross-party consensus on immigration. Previously, every part of the spectrum, whether conservative or liberal, supported immigration. But they jacked up the numbers so hard and fast, there’s been a backlash. It’s made the housing crisis worse and public services have deteriorated, directly attributable to the change in immigration policy.

Do you think there’s anything that would persuade him to step down, or will it take a no-confidence vote to force him out?

He’s trying to reshuffle his cabinet and finding it difficult, because people realize this is the end of the road and they don’t want to join a sinking ship. Some 60-odd Liberal MPs are emboldened to call on him to go. The National Democratic Party (the third-largest party) leader said if Trudeau remains as PM, they will support a motion of no-confidence. The available paths for him to stay are rapidly shrinking. The party bigwigs will tell him the game is up and he should step down, for his own good and the good of the party. That’s the most likely scenario. He’s lost all his friends.

Who do you think would be the Liberals’ best hope to lead them into the election? Or, even if they can’t win, to mitigate their losses?

Chrystia Freeland was always popular with the caucus [the Canadian Parliamentary Conservative Party]. Eddie Goldenberg [former chief of staff to Liberal PM Jean Chrétien] says the party should just anoint her. She’s from the more centrist wing, rather than progressive. However, she doesn’t speak French and isn’t from Quebec, which in Canada is a big deal. Other contenders, the current foreign minister and current minister for industry, do speak French and hail from Quebec.

Crucially, the most talented people will most likely hold off running for now. Whoever takes this job will almost certainly lose the next election. They will understand that they’re a sacrificial lamb, and their job is to salvage as much as possible.

Do you think Trump will be more conciliatory vis-à-vis tariffs with a Conservative government?

Trump made it clear that he doesn’t like Trudeau. The incumbent government has attacked Trump, without stopping to think that he might win again. The personal animosity will be gone, but the principle for the tariffs remains the same. However, Pierre Poilievre is better placed to articulate the case against tariffs. For example, the US is heavily reliant on Canada for energy, so a 25% tariff on all Canadian exports will slap 25% on energy for American consumers. Trump won’t want higher energy costs for Americans, which is what brought down Joe Biden.

How does Pierre Poilievre intend to deal with immigration?

The Liberals have realized that immigration is a loser for them, and, over the last eight months, made a series of announcements about clamping down on immigration. In the next 18 to 24 months, 4.9 million out of Canada’s 41 million population will have their visas expire. The federal government expect most of those people to voluntarily leave.

There are two problems with that. There is no capacity to deport people if they don’t leave. Also, they often file an asylum claim once their visa expires, but the system is so backlogged, it can take two years before they get a hearing, and they can’t be deported while they have an active claim. Poilievre needs to ensure the Canadian Border Service has the resources it needs to enforce where necessary, and he needs to clear the asylum backlog. It will be a difficult issue to navigate; immigrants are upset at the change in this decade-long status quo.

Canada under Justin Trudeau has adopted a distinctly Israel-skeptic stance, even restricting arms exports. How will things be different under Poilievre?

Poilievre has consistently expressed strong support for Israel. He’s condemned Hamas as a “sadistic, genocidal, terrorist death cult” and emphasized Israel’s right to defend itself. Poilievre has also indicated that, under his leadership, Canada would stand firmly with Israel and move Canada’s embassy to Jerusalem. He’s also said that if Israel were to destroy Iran’s nuclear capacity, it would be “a gift to mankind from the Jewish state,” which underscores his alignment with Israel’s security concerns.

Canada’s seen a sharp rise in anti-Semitic attacks since October 7. What has Poilievre committed to do about it?

Poilievre has been vocal in his condemnation. He’s criticized Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for what he perceives as a weak response to anti-Semitism and has called for stronger actions to combat it. Additionally, Poilievre has advocated for the designation of groups like Samidoun, which he alleges have ties to terrorist organizations, as terrorist entities in Canada, and stronger immigration controls.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1042)