Will Trump listen to Bibi on Iran, or will he calm his Arab partners?

After nearly two years of constant vigilance for air raid sirens after October 7, Israeli citizens have enjoyed only a brief and fragile respite. Will the current calm last? Will renewed conflict with Iran bring resolution, or further chaos and doubt? Does Israel have viable options if relations with the US turn brittle? The stakes could not be higher as Prime Minister Netanyahu makes an emergency visit this week to meet with President Trump

1) President Trump was insistent that Operation Midnight Hammer — America’s massive precision strikes in June —“completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s key nuclear enrichment facilities. If so, why is the US negotiating with Iran if it already achieved its stated objective?

Trump’s statements are often premature and don’t always stand up to scrutiny. As I noted then in these pages (“The Clock Strikes Midnight,” Issue 1067), it would take months to accurately assess the damage. Recent satellite images show Iran engaged in salvage and recovery at the bombed sites, and while most experts believe the centrifuges producing enriched uranium are down, some may remain. The main worry is the location of Iran’s stockpile of a half-ton of enriched uranium, theoretically enough for about ten nuclear weapons. With enough time and breathing room, Iran might resume enrichment activities. Either Trump, Israel, or both must act before the threat grows.

2) Prime Minister Netanyahu also insists that he and President Trump operate in lockstep. Isn’t his sudden departure for Washington a sign that daylight has opened between them?

While Iran’s nuclear capabilities remain theoretical, its ballistic missile capabilities are real. Last June, Iran fired more than 550 ballistic missiles and launched more than 1,000 drones at Israel, killing 32 people, injuring more than 3,000, and resulting in more than 40,000 damage claims. Intelligence officials fear Iran could fire chemical or biological missiles in a future attack. No matter how well Bibi and Trump work together, Netanyahu fears Trump’s penchant for dealmaking could lead to a replay of President Obama’s 2015 deal with Iran, which focused on nuclear enrichment and ignored ballistic missiles. Israel can’t live with a deal that doesn’t address the full spectrum of risks.

3) Israel is not the only country trying to influence Trump. The US has close ties with Arab countries, which are urging the president to hold off on an attack. Whose view will prevail?

Arab countries fear that Iran would retaliate to a US attack by shutting down the region’s oil shipping routes, inflicting serious economic damage, so they’re pressuring Trump to pursue the diplomatic track. The Trump administration is also sensitive to a spike in oil prices that could reignite inflation and make gasoline unaffordable again.

It’s important to note that Israel is not seeking an attack that could provoke a serious Iranian counterattack, joined by Iran’s proxies such as Hezbollah and the Houthis. Israel would also prefer a path in which the US could apply sufficient military and financial pressure to spark a new round of protests and topple Iran’s government. Trump also promised Iranian protestors that help is on the way.

The president is taking his time to decide because there’s no clear path to satisfying everyone’s interests.

4) Trump’s thumb on the scale is tilting the balance of power across all of Israel’s borders. Beyond waiting for Trump on Iran, does Israel have any independence in setting foreign policy with its neighbors?

Trump is audacious. Netanyahu is cautious, giving Trump the upper hand. Israel is heavily reliant on America for military and political support, but it is no pushover. Israel started the 12-Day War with Iran last June, will strike first if need be, and has taken the initiative in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria.

Bibi considers himself a political grandmaster, but his endgame doesn’t live up to his opening moves. After fighting valiantly against Hamas for two years, the Israeli government has effectively ceded Gaza to Trump’s Board of Peace. If Trump took out Iran, Israel would be even more indebted to him. The administration has Israel boxed in, pressuring Israel to come to terms with Syria’s jihadist leader even as Turkey bolsters its military presence in Syria.

Egypt’s violations of the Camp David Treaty mount by the day, building runways for fighter jets and underground silos for missiles. With Democratic Party support for Israel fading and Republican anti-interventionists gaining power, Israel may one day have to be far bolder to reckon with both Egypt’s and Turkey’s armed and dangerous conventional forces.

5) It’s clear that Israel needs to broaden its regional alliances, considering how its enemies and rivals are regrouping. Do they have realistic options for a pivot away from the US?

Israel has no quick fix for reducing its addiction to US aid. Currently, Israel and the US are negotiating new arrangements, some described as trade rather than aid, to help Americans view US support for Israel as an economic gain rather than a gift.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has taken the initiative here, saying it’s time for Israel to wean itself from US aid, and has shown signs of life elsewhere. Many analysts see Israel’s recognition of Somaliland as a bold foreign policy move, uniting Israel with India, the UAE, and Ethiopia — nations interested in securing vital shipping routes along the Horn of Africa. The US might join if it perceives this alliance as countering China’s influence in the region.

Additionally, Israel has strengthened its economic and military ties with Greece and Cyprus, which fear Turkey more than Israel. Last week, Greece’s Defense Minister Nikos Dendias spoke at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies conference titled “Reimagining Mediterranean Security.” Dendias offered the Trump administration some food for thought. While highlighting Turkey’s rising regional power, especially amid the Trump administration’s support for President Erdogan, he recommended that the US reassess its regional strategy for the next 20 years and decide whether its long-term interests are better served by strengthening ties with Turkey or Israel.

At this seemingly dark juncture in regional affairs, with a decision on Iran looming, even small steps such as these could open doors to a more promising and peaceful future, with Israel not just gaining a seat at the table but at the head of it.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1099)