Iran aggression grows as US abandons allies

Photo: Flash90

Six weeks ago, there was a dramatic development in the Middle East. The Iranian attack on Saudi oil facilities was a test, one that allowed Tehran to conclude that the United States is a paper tiger — and that the Saudis are powerless without them. Likewise, the Iranians saw that President Trump will betray his allies, whether the Gulf states or the Kurds.

The Iranians now believe that Israel stands alone in its struggle against them, and that they can engage Israel directly without fear of retribution from the US. This is a lifeline for Iran, which is currently suffering from devastating international sanctions. By targeting Israel, Tehran hopes to control the Middle East.

The security threat was expressed clearly by Chief of Staff Aviv Kochavi, who warned last week of the real possibility of an escalation into all-out war. “Israel is currently dealing with a large number of enemies and security fronts at once,” Kochavi explained. “On both the northern and southern fronts, the situation is fragile and tense, and things could spiral out of control rapidly despite the fact that our enemies are not interested in war.” The chief of staff added that the IDF is carrying out intensive preparations for such an eventuality.

According to Kochavi, Israel’s main defense challenge lies in the north, where Iran is attempting to entrench itself in Syria and build Hezbollah’s precision-guided missile program. “Both cases are initiatives led by Iran, being carried out in the territory of countries whose sovereignty is compromised,” Kochavi emphasized, referring to Syria and Lebanon, but hinting also at Iraq, where the Iranians have set up puppet militia groups. According to foreign reports, Israel has carried out several strikes in Iraq against Iranian militias and military installations.

Israel Prepares for War

The chief of staff’s warning comes as Israel grows increasingly concerned about Trump’s decision to pull US troops out of Syria in particular, and the Middle East in general. The defense establishment believes that the days when Israel could carry out strikes in Syria without any retribution from Iran are over. Tehran is not willing to put up with this anymore, sources say, and intends to retaliate against future Israeli strikes. Even now commander of the Quds force Qassem Soleimani is planning his next move.

At the same, Israel is watching Gaza closely, and particularly the Islamic Jihad group, which is acting increasingly independently, and may be planning to carry out a terrorist attack or renew rocket fire on Israel. On both these fronts, 5780 may be a considerably worse year than the previous one.

Major General (res.) Amos Yadlin, former head of the Military Intelligence Directorate, believes that Israel’s strategic position has changed for the worse, mainly because of Washington’s disengagement from the Middle East.

“Our strong relationship with the United States is one of the pillars of Israel’s defense,” he said in a conversation. “When the United States is weakened — failing to react against the attacks on Saudi Arabia, not retaliating the downing of an American drone, retreating and abandoning the Kurds to their fate — it weakens Israel’s position and at the same time emboldens Iran to take greater risks. Now Iran will seek to retaliate directly when Israel launches air strikes against weapons convoys that Iran sends to Syria or Hezbollah in Lebanon.”

At the same time, he said, it’s clear that neither Iran nor Israel is interested in all-out war. Going forward, each side will attempt to establish deterrence. But one mistake could lead to an escalation.

“Iran has attempted to retaliate against Israeli air strikes three times, through [Revolutionary Guards commander] Qassem Soleimani. They fired rockets at the Golan Heights, fired rockets at the Hermon, and made an abortive attempt to launch military drones at us, although the IDF neutralized them before they could be launched. I doubt Iran will strike at Tel Aviv as long as we avoid striking Tehran, but they could easily attempt to strike some major military base in the Golan Heights or even further south. Until now the struggle has not extended beyond air strikes against Iranian military bases in Syria. I don’t think Iran will attempt to carry the war to civilian population centers, but I’m sure the defense establishment is considering the possibility that Iran will strike drilling facilities, as in Saudi Arabia, or electric power stations.”

That may sound serious, he adds, but Israel (b’chasdei Hashem) has a strong army and an excellent intelligence service. “We would have known about an attempt to launch as many cruise missiles and drones as were launched against the Saudis,” Yadlin says. “We have an excellent detection system and the best missile interception system in the world, on several different levels.”

For its attack on the Saudi oil refinery, Iran employed some 20 airborne vehicles, including cruise missiles and unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs). This kind of operation requires a capacity for coordination, communication, and target selection. Iran demonstrated an ability to activate a large number of UAVs (around 50) at a military exercise this past summer. They also demonstrated impressive communication skills, taking control of an American drone and landing it in its own territory. The remains of UAVs that were discovered in Saudi Arabia reveal that the Iranians are creating and activating UAVs on a very high level (with jet engines and stealth systems), so they are not far behind Israel in this field.

The combination of UAVs with cruise missiles (for discovering targets, last-minute guidance, and damage assessment) proved highly effective for hitting fixed targets, and possibly mobile targets as well. Images show the high level of precision of the attack. Every one of the oil refinery’s storage tanks sustained direct hits. It can be concluded from the images that the missiles hit their targets to within one meter.

The Saudi military is equipped with aircraft radar that should have detected the approaching attack. The United States also failed to detect signs of the strike, which proves one of two things: Either the Saudi defense was faulty, or the coordination between the Iranian missiles was somehow disguised and difficult to detect. Whatever the case, the strike was effective and successful. Not only the storage tanks (which can be quickly repaired) were hit, but also the production facilities.

IDF Retrenches

In response to these myriad challenges, the IDF has drawn up a long-term plan involving comprehensive structural reforms to the changing battlefield and strength of Israel’s enemies. The long-term initiative, which is expected to be implemented next year, will require a substantial increase in the country’s defense budget. But due to the ongoing political crisis, funding remains in doubt.

The IDF is also focusing on improving the land forces’ maneuvering capabilities. In addition to providing every soldier with new and advanced military equipment, purchases are being made of advanced weaponry for combat units on a scale of hundreds of millions of shekels.

For defense in Judea and Samaria, the IDF is planning to activate advanced technologies that will accompany the forces on the ground, technologies that will also be used in the advanced and autonomous weapons systems for the Gaza frontier.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 783)