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How Trump Must Cook with the Senate

Inside the Legislative kitchen

W

oodrow Wilson was on the eve of a monumental accomplishment. The League of Nations would have been the culmination of a post-World War I world and an attempt to broker peace among recalcitrant countries once and for all. All that remained was the Treaty of Versailles to be signed in Paris and make it all official. But Wilson had left one group behind  ̶ ̶  the United States Senate. Refusing to take key members of the Senate with him, he moved forward and ignored the senators who would have to ratify the treaty into law. Predictably, the senators were furious and quickly torpedoed all his hard work and effort. Wilson learned a valuable lesson too late: Ignore or antagonize the Senate at your own peril.

Wilson’s century-old lesson is more applicable than ever now for President Trump as he navigates the United States Senate in order to pass his big beautiful bill. Navigate them correctly and legislation can fly through. Antagonize or ignore them and watch legislation die a slow death. Welcome to the wild, weird, wonderful world of the Senate.

To understand this world, let’s pretend we are preparing a meal for our friends. Like for any meal, you would have the Kitchen, the Chefs, the Mashgiach, and finally, the Menu.

The Kitchen  ̶  What is the Senate? In order to prepare a meal, you need to know how many ovens you have and ingredients with which to cook. The legislative kitchen was a massive debate during the founding of America.  The House of Representatives was easy. It was proportional representation. This is why California has 52 members of the House and Alaska only has one. The Senate was also supposed to have representational government, but a giant fight broke out over the unfairness to smaller states. A compromise was reached called the “Connecticut Compromise,” which apportioned two seats apiece to every state in the Union. This is why California has two senators and Alaska has two senators. Alaska has far less power in the House than it does in the Senate. This type of representation led to the makeup of 100 senators compared to the 435 members of the House.

Trump’s Challenge: The challenge for Trump’s bill is that he has a Republican majority of only six seats, all of which require their place in the kitchen during the discussion and debate of this bill.

The Cooks  ̶  Which personalities are in the Kitchen? With fewer Senators, each has more power and the ability to shut down debate or legislation through a variety of tactics. Some of them have the ability to slow down legislation through the committees that they run. During the height of the Civil Rights Movement, many racist Southern senators used their committees to slow down movement of civil rights-related bills so they never received a full Senate vote.  Others have the ability to filibuster by delaying actions in the Senate through debate and discussion. We recently watched a version of this when Senator Cory Booker (D-NJ) spoke on the Senate floor for 25 hours.

Trump’s Challenge: The Democratic party will hold up key aspects of this bill but his relationships with Republicans are just as important. For example, Rand Paul (R-KY) recently complained he was uninvited to a White House event. This fracas is not something that Trump can afford.

The Mashgiach  ̶  The Parliamentarian: You wouldn’t go into a restaurant without making sure there’s a mashgiach and you wouldn’t expect to find a bill pass the Senate that hasn’t been vetted by the Parliamentarian. The Parliamentarian interprets which bills meet the rules of the Senate. If something doesn’t meet the rules of the Senate, the Parliamentarian may strike it down or remove it entirely before it is voted upon. One powerful rule-making authority the Parliamentarian has is to enforce something called the Byrd Rule, which eliminates extraneous legislation during the reconciliation process (below).

Trump’s Challenge: The Parliamentarian has already removed a number of things from this bill utilizing the Byrd Rule. Trump will have to navigate this gatekeeper in order to make sure more of his bill isn’t watered down. This individual is an independent and bipartisan authority figure who cannot be attacked or pushed.

The Menu  ̶  Reconciliation:  I have had many meals where my wife’s Sephardic family and my Ashkenazi family have had to reconcile what gets served when. This is the process of reconciliation between the House and the Senate. These two bodies have their own bills and their own ideas for each bill. They must reconcile their differences and determine what stays and goes for ultimate passage. This is a balancing act that requires compromise, patience, and thought. Committee members from both sides are appointed to deliberate and produce a final bill.

Trump’s Challenge: The more Trump weighs in or pushes members on this reconciliation process, the less likely it is he will see passage of his bill. Making sure this committee is allowed to meet and work out their differences is the key to final passage.

Political Predictions: 

Good Prediction: I predicted that the Senate would start to cut down the big beautiful bill, and as we discussed above, it has begun. It’s far from over, though, so I may regret calling this a “good prediction” as I have to walk back the following prediction.

Bad Prediction: First, I predicted that Gavin Newsom would be a presidential front-runner and then I took a loss when the wildfires hurt him politically. Then I reversed course and said that the wildfires made it impossible for him to launch a presidential campaign. The recent protests and his squabbles with Trump have doubled his popularity as a Democratic presidential contender in a recent Morning Consult poll. This again demonstrates how a week is a lifetime in politics and how even if you’re down one day, you may be up the next.

This Week’s Predictions: 

GOP rallies around Iran strike: The extreme radical right of the Republican party has decided to be both anti-Israel, isolationist, and completely ignorant on the necessity of ending Iranian nuclear proliferation. I don’t see that in a supermajority of Congress and the GOP who will rally around Trump’s preemptive strike.

Bipartisanship reached on political violence: Political parties don’t come together on much, but you have had two major situations that will demand attention, funding, and public policy. The first was the killing of a Minnesota state legislator and the second was the road-running experienced by an Ohio congressman. Congress will come together and provide more security protections and policy on what is now a disturbing growing trend in American politics.

 

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1067)

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