Four cards Ciattarelli needs to play to win the New Jersey governor's race 

Photo: AP Images

M

uch of the nail-biting over the New York City mayor’s race appears to be for naught. If you believe the polls, that race ended long ago. The hare can comfortably sleep until Election Day and win handily.

The real edge-of-your-seat contest is in New Jersey, where independent polling has Democratic gubernatorial candidate governor Mikie Sherrill desperately clutching a shrinking lead of 5% or 7% over Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Keeping in mind the margin of error (5%) and the historical polling bias in favor of Democrats (3% to 5%), the race is a statistical dead heat. Internal polling at both campaign headquarters has it even more snug, showing Sherrill edging Jack in the pack by a mere 2% or 4%.

With 18 days to Election Day, here are the four aces Jack must play to win.

1

Focus, Focus, Focus!

Aside from his role as Agudath Israel’s New Jersey director, Shlomo Schorr is also an elections enthusiast and one of the state’s leading analysts.

“In the remaining days, Jack has to hammer the issues that matter and keep away from fringe national politics,” Shlomo advises.

Ciatarelli’s appeal has to be on three-of-a-kind that matter to the key moderate voters he needs: affordability, energy rates, lowering taxes. New Jersey’s costs have skyrocketed under Democrat control for the past few years, taxes are among the highest in the nation, and energy bills keep climbing. Astoundingly, polls show people aren’t sure whom to blame, and Mikie Sherrill is actually polling higher on energy issues. Jack has to talk smack and take back the messaging edge.

“Avoid getting sucked in to non-local discussions.” Jack can’t win without some Democrat votes, and Republican insiders have already expressed concern that he’s seen as too close to King Trump. He can’t afford to lose the Trump base, either, so he needs to just keep off divisive irrelevancies.

2

Expand the Coalition

“A Republican in New Jersey can’t win on Republican votes alone,” Shlomo chides. “Jack learned that the hard way in 2021, when he lost to Phil Murphy by 83,000 votes.”

He needs to peel off independents and moderate Democrats from Sherrill, without alienating the woke right. How do you do that?

The center-swing voters are unhappy with the state of the Garden State, and Jack has to name the game: Sherrill means more of the same.

“Tell them, ‘Hey, even if you don’t like me, you definitely don’t want her,’ ” Shlomo says. “He needs to point out the chronic mismanagement in Trenton over the past few years, the bloated budget, and perennial dysfunction.”

3

Play the Trump Card — Carefully

Jack needs to use Trump’s support, but very delicately.

He must energize the Trump base to turn out in big numbers, but not scare off timid moderate Democrats. The Trump brand is a fiery motivator for hardline Republicans, but kryptonite for the middle-grounders.

It’s all about turnout and energy. With the lone exception of Phil Murphy, the president’s party hasn’t won the governor’s race for the last 50 years in New Jersey — mostly because the party in power is complacent and bored. It’s not enough that thousands of happy Republicans want him to win — they have to be energized or angry enough to go vote Jack. Trump can trigger that — but may also keep the moderates who don’t like Trenton Dems at home.

“Ciattarelli lost by 83,000 votes in 2021,” Shlomo points out. “Trump got 713,000 more votes in New Jersey in 2024 than he did. Those were conservatives who just stayed home in 2021.”

If Jack can motivate 20 percent of them to come out for him —more than 83,000, because Sherrill will turn more voters out than Murphy — he’ll be in a much stronger position.

It’s not easy being the Jack of All Parties and Master of One — a fine line for him to walk. That’s why you won’t see an in-person Trump campaign stump for Ciattarelli; but a virtual rally, publicized among conservative inner circles, might do the trick.

One recent poll had Sherrill leading by about five points, but trailing in a key, often overlooked statistic: excitement. About 15% more Ciattarelli supporters said they were excited to vote for him, than Sherrill supporters were excited to vote for her. That speaks to energy surrounding the campaign — and energy drives turnout.

4

That Special Feeling

Ciattarelli has to drill down on his appeal to narrow interest groups. He can’t win without them. These include:

Jews beyond Lakewood Modern and traditional Jewish communities across the state that would traditionally vote Democrat can be receptive to the messages on education, school choice, security, protecting houses of worship, and support for Israel. Sherrill scores poorly on these topics for this population.

The Hispanic/Latino vote President Trump made huge inroads into the large Hispanic and Latino communities in New Jersey, traditionally reliable Democrat voters. Can Jack crack the hack to attract them back? He won’t reproduce those numbers, but the demographic is usually tuned into messaging on affordability, small businesses, and high taxation. Obviously, the White House label is somewhat on ICE with the community today, so Jack has to be careful not to find himself in that deck of cards.

Asians “It’s critical for Jack to get to the Asian population, primarily in Middlesex County,” Shlomo stresses. “They don’t usually vote in big numbers, but a focus on education speaks to them.” Sherrill is working hard to turn out voters in Middlesex — harder than anywhere else. Jack needs to match that energy.

Lakewood Jack has strong Orthodox Jewish support… but again, he must have turnout. Only 12,000 voters in Lakewood came out to pull the lever for him four years ago. “He needs triple that, or get at least 30,000 this time around,” Schorr says.

Police Republicans usually enjoy strong police support, and Jack has been endorsed by most police unions. He is missing a very big one: the New Jersey State Policemen’s Benevolent Association (NJSPBA) has refused to give him the nod.

“Law enforcement and other first responders are a huge part of the Trump base in New Jersey,” says Bill Spadea, a New Jersey personality who mounted the most significant primary challenge to Ciattarelli this time around. “I’m hearing from law enforcement contacts that Jack’s past is troubling.” They balk at past statements like police are “more than well paid” and he “knows of other more dangerous jobs that pay less.”

Spadea suggests that Jack needs to immediately announce a strong, pro-po-po attorney general pick. He suggests state senator Michael Testa would be perfect, and help get cops on his side.

Schorr is not worried about Ciattarelli’s support among law enforcement. All other police unions have endorsed him, and he chalks up NJSPBA’s holdout to politics — some bigwig or other who once got dealt a bad hand by Jack, or has more confidence about keeping his job with Sherrill giving them out. Ciattarelli has already made a significant move to shore up the Long Blue Line, picking Morris County Sheriff Jim Gannon as his running mate for lieutenant governor.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 1083)