The Blue Wave has crested, but it’s not high tide for the Republicans.

With one week to go before the midterm elections, and early voting underway in many states, all signs point to an election night nail-biter. The polls favor Republicans retaining control of the Senate and losing their majority in the House of Representatives.

At press time, the Real Clear Politics average poll awarded Democrats a six-seat edge over Republicans, 205-199, with 31 seats rated as toss-ups. Republicans currently hold 29 of those 31 toss-up seats, which means Democrats only have to win 13 of them to reach the magic number of 218 required to control the 435-seat House.

As of press time, a review of the polls in each race shows Democrats leading in 18 of those races (five more than necessary to reach 218) but most of their leads are well within the 3% margin of error the polling industry uses to cover their bets in tight races.

“Control of the House is still up for grabs, and Democrats by no means have this locked down,” says Sean Trende, the senior elections analyst for Real Clear Politics. “With that said, they only have to win about a third of the toss-up districts, which gives them a pretty substantial edge.”

Trende suggests keeping an eye on President Trump’s approval rating as we near Election Day. “If it continues to tick upwards, Republicans really might hold the House,” he said.

At press time, the Real Clear Politics average poll showed Trump with a 43% approval rating, his highest since taking office.

A high approval rating is a plus, but on the likability scale, Trump is no Ronald Reagan. In the early 1980s, Reagan was able to ply his personal charm to solicit enough votes from conservative Southern Democrats, nicknamed “Boll weevils,” to advance his legislative agenda, even as Democrats held a 244-191 edge in the House.

These current Democrats won’t cut Trump an iota of slack, and even a one-seat Democratic majority in the House will imperil the president’s conservative agenda.

With so much at stake, both parties are hungry, voters are energized, and in the campaign’s waning days, Republicans are whittling away at the Democrats’ lead in the polls. To get over the top on Election Day, pollster John MacLaughlin says the GOP must win over the 10% of the electorate who are still “undecided.” Picking up enough of them will not be easy. The vast majority of the undecideds disapprove of the job the Republican majority is doing in Congress. Having said that, more than one-third of the undecideds are squarely on the side of mainstream Republican values, such as smaller government with fewer services, and a plurality say the economy is getting better under Trump.

“The Republicans are in the game, but they have to win back these undecided voters before they break against them two to one,” McLaughlin says. “If they do, the Republicans would lose the national generic vote for Congress 52%-48%.”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 733)