The past two weeks have seen a sharp rise in tensions among all the players in the Syrian theater.

Iran fired a medium-range ground-to-ground missile toward the Mount Hermon region last Sunday, just hours after Israel launched a rare daytime attack on Iranian targets near Damascus. The Syrian government is stepping up its anti-aircraft fire during IDF attacks, despite threats from Israel not to target IAF jets. Russia has warned that it will act to restrict Israel’s freedom of action in Syria, especially around Damascus and its international airport.

The IDF, meanwhile, has changed its response policy and is now explicitly acknowledging its attacks on Iranian targets. In addition, Israel has carried out larger and more punishing attacks against a variety of Syrian and Iranian targets.

Rumblings from Iranian military leaders have only escalated the faceoff. Various generals have threatened in recent days to annihilate Israel. The head of Iran’s air force declared his country’s youth is ready to fight Israel to the end. Ali Samahani, the secretary of Tehran's National Security Council, insisted the Iranian presence in Syria is legitimate and legal and comes at the explicit request of the Assad regime.

Brigadier General Eli Ben-Meir, a former commander and chief of staff of the IDF’s Intelligence Corps, says these statements should be understood in context. Israel has weakened Iran in Syria and will continue to strike as necessary. “When Iran launched a missile at the Hermon, the IDF hit back that same night and publicized its response. The same thing happened after the al-Quds Force fired dozens of rockets and missiles into the Golan Heights this past May.”

Are these suitable responses?

“In my eyes, the IDF should be measured and determined, and try to contain events and keep them from spiraling out of control. If you look at the Iranian media, you see a different picture than what is shown in Israel.

“There was no official Iranian reaction to the events, and their media sufficed with very brief reports. Why? Iran wishes to preserve its own freedom of action, and doesn’t want to admit to direct involvement in any military activity. That way, it will not put itself in a position where it would be forced to act.”

What does it mean when the head of the Iranian air force says his country’s youth is ready to fight for Israel’s destruction?

“That declaration by the Iranian air force commander came during an interview that mostly discussed improvements made to the air force in light of the threats, and there is no mention at all of Syria or of Israeli attacks on that country. Closer analysis shows the interview was likely recorded before the Israeli attack, and these are a few lines from a broad interview that covered a wide variety of subjects.”

How would you assess Iran’s strategic position in the world?

“Tehran is in a complex and messy position strategically. Its effectiveness in disseminating terror throughout the world has been severely set back. Plans to carry out terror attacks in Europe were exposed by the Israeli Mossad and thwarted by the Europeans.

“Iran’s position in Yemen is frozen, and its attempts to establish itself in Syria are facing Israel’s determined and nearly constant resistance. Fulfillment of its plans is badly lagging behind schedule. We can presume that Israel will continue to have freedom to act in Syria, even if it faces more challenges than it has in the past. So Iran is under pressure, its interests are in danger, and its international, domestic, and economic standing are all deteriorating.”

Is the American cancellation of the Iran nuclear deal having an effect?

“Three years have passed since implementation began of the nuclear deal between the five world powers and Iran. Iran’s economic and international standing are both at a nadir. The effect of the American sanctions is intensifying and internal pressure is mounting. President Hassan Rouhani admitted a few weeks ago that the sanctions are affecting the lives of Iran’s citizens and the development of the country.”

And what about Russia? How far will Moscow go to protect Iran in Syria?

“Russia is busy reestablishing the Assad regime and has the most clout in the region. A comment by Russia’s deputy foreign minister, Sergei Ribakov, in a CNN interview, speaks volumes about his country’s relationship with Iran. Asked if Moscow and Tehran are allies in Syria, Ribakov replied, ‘I wouldn’t use those words to describe us and Iran. We in no way make light of the importance of steps that will guarantee the security of Israel.’ ”

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 746)