Nearly two months from election day, all eyes are on Benny Gantz, the former army chief of staff and new party leader of Chosen L’Yisrael (Israel Resilience). After his maiden political speech on January 14, polls show his nascent political movement may win 20 to 23 seats in the next Knesset, a number that could make him a major player in the next government.

After weeks of silence, Gantz delivered what some journalists called the performance of a lifetime during his remarks at the Tel Aviv Fairgrounds, appearing sharp, assertive, and persuasive. He vowed to unite the country under his leadership and rid Israel of the “ill wind” of division that has marked Binyamin Netanyahu’s reign for the last two years.

Standing to his right was his number two and former superior, retired general Moshe (Boogie) Yaalon, who quit as Netanyahu’s defense minister in 2016. Together, the pair represent a formidable challenge to Netanyahu’s ability to run as a military savior.

For all the positives of his speech, Gantz also angered chareidi politicians and the religious public by venturing into Yair Lapid territory with proposals that would allow for civil marriages and facilitate the establishment of a Reform section at the Kosel. Further, he announced, he supports public transportation on Shabbos for cities and towns that opt for it.

A Shas representative immediately responded: “Benny Gantz, after weeks of silence, your news to Am Yisrael is civil marriages and a Reform Kosel? Public transportation on Shabbos?”

Likewise, deputy health minister Yaakov Litzman (Agudas Yisrael) accused Gantz of being a Yair Lapid clone and ruled out any possibility of cooperation.

Gantz is still courting another former chief of general staff, Gabi Ashkenazi, to join the party, which would create a three-headed party of generals. Those close to Ashkenazi told Mishpacha that he is still deliberating whether to join forces with Gantz or Yesh Atid leader Lapid.

Gantz is also considering running with Lapid, a partnership that polls show would win the unified party five more seats than Netanyahu’s Likud. If that match materializes, Netanyahu would then attempt to do the same with smaller parties on the right. He reportedly has already made such overtures to Jewish Home and the New Right party, headed by Naftali Bennett and Ayelet Shaked.

But don’t expect Lapid to play second fiddle to Gantz. The former television star has told supporters that he does not intend to run as number two after building his party from scratch. Further, the moment Lapid takes a role like foreign minister in a Gantz-led government, his political life is finished. Lapid is aiming high: he wants to be the prime minister and will, if necessary, wait out the Bibi era in order to achieve his goal.

Gantz is also exploring the option of including one or more of the smaller parties in his coalition, like the Achi L’Yisrael party, headed by Rabbanit Adina Bar Shalom, the daughter of Rav Ovadiah Yosef ztz”l, or Gesher, headed by MK Orli Levi-Abekasis, the daughter of former foreign minister David Levy.

Order of Battle

Not surprisingly, the war room at the Gantz headquarters is being run with military precision. The campaign platform is described as an “organizing idea”; there is a “campaign clock” to make sure everyone is working to maximum efficiency; there’s even a “formation” to ensure all the troops stay in line. When the Gantz team completed the task of bringing Moshe Yaalon on board, campaign headquarters declared that the “right flank” had been protected.

In addition to Yaalon, Gantz has also added to the party list with Eshel Armoni, a former head of the Mossad’s intelligence and operations division, former Netanyahu cabinet secretary Tzvi Hauser, and the former head of hasbarah in Netanyahu’s bureau, Yoaz Hendel. Despite their name recognition, it is not clear how many mandates Hauser and Hendel might bring. But for their right-wing credentials alone, they are valuable additions to the Chosen L’Yisrael list.

Early on, Gantz’s opponents have tried to paint him as a left-winger dressed up in centrist clothing. Critics have pointed to his performance during Operation Protective Edge, when he was chief of staff, during which Israel engaged in a seven-week stalemate with Hamas. Gantz has also admitted to endangering soldiers’ lives during that operation for the sake of upholding certain ethical principles of warfare. In addition to allowing cities to violate Shabbat, Gantz also said during his Tel Aviv speech that he supports laws that protect those with alternative lifestyles.

Gantz came out swinging on the settlements, vowing to strengthen the settlement blocs, but would evacuate the isolated settlements as part of any future peace agreement, a move that Yaalon opposes. So too Gantz has said that he will “fix” the nation-state law passed last year, especially as it relates to protecting the rights of Israel’s Druze citizens. It so happens that Tzvi Hauser is one of the law’s authors — but a victory at the polls might solve all conflicts.

For now, Gantz has not ruled out sitting in a Netanyahu government, and indeed, political observers believe he will likely be Israel’s next defense minister. But there are other scenarios that could place Gantz in a more powerful position. For instance, center-left voters might make a strategic choice on April 9 and stream en masse to Gantz. This would be at the expense of Labor, which is losing ground fast, but it would also hurt Netanyahu. The slogan might be: “It’s Benny or Bibi.” Conversely, right-wing voters might also be drawn to a Gantz candidacy, providing anywhere from three to four seats for Chosen L’Yisrael.

There’s also the chance that Kulanu, Yisrael Beiteinu, Shas, or Jewish Home will fall below the electoral threshold of 3.25 percent, impairing Netanyahu’s chances to form the next government. And that would spell the end of King Bibi.

(Originally featured in Mishpacha, Issue 747)